Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.
Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel
Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey - Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting - International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting - Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling
In this book, Nobel Laureate Merton Miller presents a sustained attack on the popular view that modern financial innovations have created excessive market volatility to the detriment of individual savers and business investors, and that regulation is essential in such forms as higher margin requirements, taxes on trading, and perhaps even closing down the future market.
Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
The latest developments in chaos theory - from an industry expert Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the first book to introduce and popularize chaos as it applies to finance. It has since become the classic source on the topic. This new edition is completely updated to include the latest ripples in chaos theory with new chapters that tie in today's hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, and artificial intelligence. Critical praise for Peters and the first edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets "The bible of market chaologists." - BusinessWeek "Ed Peters has written a first-class summary suitable for any investment professional or skilled investor." - Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities "It ranks among the most provocative financial books of the past few years. Reading this book will provide a generous payback for the time and mental energy expended." - Financial Analysts Journal This second edition of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets brings the topic completely up to date with timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of the latest wave of technology, including genetic algorithms, wavelets, and complexity theory. Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets was the very first book to explore and popularize chaos theory as it applies to finance. It has since become the industry standard, and is regarded as the definitive source to which analysts, investors, and traders turn for a comprehensive overview of chaos theory. Now, this invaluable reference - touted by BusinessWeek as "the bible of market chaologists" - has been updated and revised to bring you the latest developments in the field. Mainstream capital market theory is based on efficient market assumptions, even though the markets themselves exhibit characteristics that are symptomatic of nonlinear dynamic systems. As it explores - and validates - this nonlinear nature, Chaos and Order repudiates the "random walk" theory and econometrics. It shifts the focus away from the concept of efficient markets toward a more general view of the forces underlying the capital market system. Presenting new analytical techniques, as well as reexamining methods that have been in use for the past forty years, Chaos and Order offers a thorough examination of chaos theory and fractals as applied to investments and economics. This new edition includes timely examples from today's markets and descriptions of cutting-edge technologies-genetic algorithms, wavelets, complexity theory-and hot innovations, such as fuzzy logic and artificial intelligence. Beyond the history of current capital market theory, Chaos and Order covers the crucial characteristics of fractals, the analysis of fractal time series through rescaled range analysis (R/S), the specifics of fractal statistics, and the definition and analysis of chaotic systems. It offers an in-depth exploration of: * Random walks and efficient markets - the development of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and modern portfolio theory * The linear paradigm - why it has failed * Nonlinear dynamic systems - phase space, the Henon Map, Lyapunov exponents * Applying chaos and nonlinear methods - neural networks, genetic algorithms * Dynamical analysis of time series - reconstructing a phase space, the fractal dimension Tonis Vaga's Coherent Market Hypothesis - the theory of social imitation, control parameters, Vaga's implementations Plus, Chaos and Order now contains a Windows-compatible disk including data sets for running analyses described in the appendices. Written by a leading expert in the field, Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets has all the information you need for a complete, up-to-date look at chaos theory. This latest edition will undoubtedly prove to be as invaluable as the first.
Practical option strategies for the new post-crisis financialmarket Traditional buy-and-hold investing has been seriously challengedin the wake of the recent financial crisis. With economic andmarket uncertainty at a very high level, options are still the mosteffective tool available for managing volatility and downside risk,yet they remain widely underutilized by individuals and investmentmanagers. In Options for Volatile Markets, Richard Lehmanand Lawrence McMillan provide you with specific strategies to lowerportfolio volatility, bulletproof your portfolio against anycatastrophe, and tailor your investments to the precise level ofrisk you are comfortable with. While the core strategy of this new edition remains covered callwriting, the authors expand into more comprehensive optionstrategies that offer deeper downside protection or even allowinvestors to capitalize on market or individual stock volatility.In addition, they discuss new offerings like weekly expirations andoptions on ETFs. For investors who are looking to capitalize onglobal investment opportunities but are fearful of lurking "blackswans", this book shows how ETFs and options can be utilized toconstruct portfolios that are continuously protected againstunforeseen calamities. A complete guide to the increased control and lowered riskcovered call writing offers active investors and traders Addresses the changing investment environment and how to useoptions to succeed within it Explains how to use options with exchange-traded funds Understanding options is now more important than ever, and withOptions for Volatile Markets as your guide, you'll quicklylearn how to use them to protect your portfolio as well as improveits overall performance.
How to collect big profits from a volatile options market Over the past decade, the concept of volatility has drawn attention from traders in all markets across the globe. Unfortunately, this scrutiny has also created a proliferation of myths about what volatility means and how it works. Options Volatility Trading deconstructs some of the common misunderstandings about volatility trading and shows you how to successfully manage an options trading account and investment portfolio with expertise. This reliable guidebook provides an in-depth look at the volatility index (VIX) and demonstrates how to use it in conjunction with other analytical tools to determine an accurate measure of investor sentiment. However, recognizing a trend isn’t enough. In order to give you everything you need to profit in the options market, Options Volatility Trading also features: Detailed analysis of historical volatility patterns in the context of trading activity Insights into the behavioral psychology of trading volatility Revealing examinations of market noise that distorts exploitable anomalies Author Adam Warner, a recognized trading strategist and financial writer, sheds light on the required mathematics by thoroughly covering options Greeks and building a solid foundation for more advanced options and volatility concepts. He explains how to diversify your investment choices using the latest trading vehicles on the market, including exchange traded funds (ETFs), which offer exceptional money-earning potential for volatility traders. Applying the conceptual lessons in this in-depth book, you will be able to identify, collect, and process the abundance of data available every day in order to time the markets like a pro, as well as develop your own toolbox of best practices and time-tested strategies for locking in big profits from dramatic shifts in investor sentiment. Most importantly, Options Volatility Trading provides you with a go-to resource of dependable guidelines that will help you become a successful volatility trader in options and any other market.
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
