Japan's Low Inflation Conundrum
Japan's Low Inflation Conundrum

Author: Thomas Mayer

Publisher:

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The paper analyses the reasons for Japan's persistently low inflation since the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy (low inflation conundrum). It is shown that Japan experienced a structural break from a high-growth period with relatively high inflation to a low-growth period with exceptionally low inflation since the early 1990s. We show based on a stylized accounting model, how funds are created in a country open to international capital flows by domestic savings, credit creation of banks and net capital inflows, being absorbed either by rising asset prices, newly issued bonds or more money being held. Government expenditure financed by government bond purchases of commercial banks is shown to be an important channel of money creation in Japan's post-bubble period. With the price level being assumed to be dependent on both goods with free market prices and goods with prices controlled by the government we show that inflation in Japan has been kept low by mainly three factors directly or indirectly influenced by the Bank of Japan: increased money holding of households and corporations, central bank-backed debt-financed price controls and net capital outflows.

Causes of Japan's Low Inflation in the 21st Century
Causes of Japan's Low Inflation in the 21st Century

Author: Niklas Humann

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2022-08-18

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 3346697665

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Seminar paper from the year 2022 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1.3, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to not only give an overview of Japan’s Lost Decades and its pioneering use of monetary and fiscal policy measures, but to also investigate why Japan was unable to lift itself out of the deflationary slump. Over the years, the literature has identified a variety of different factors, that have temporarily pushed the Japanese inflation rate into negative territory, but no single explanation was yet able to reveal the permanence of it. This paper will hence follow the literature in considering different factors, grouping them into demand and supply factors, to ease the analysis. An additional focus of this study will be on the Bank of Japan’s pioneering, yet dissatisfying use of monetary policy. Japan’s struggle with (consumper price) deflation began in the aftermath of the asset bubble and subsequent banking crisis in the 1990s. The period since then has become known as the Lost Decades, which are characterized by negative output growth, moderate deflation, as well as rising income inequality. While Japan’s bouts with deflation are interesting from a practical point of view, regarding their negative consequences on the economy and ultimately the people of Japan, they are even more interesting from a theoretical point of view, as part of a discussion and refinement of alternative theories of economic fluctuations.

Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan
Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

Author: Mr.Fei Han

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-02-15

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1498301142

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.

Zero Lower Bound - Is it a problem in the Euro Area?
Zero Lower Bound - Is it a problem in the Euro Area?

Author: Lars Protze

Publisher: diplom.de

Published: 2008-04-17

Total Pages: 184

ISBN-13: 3836612240

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The case of Japan showed that the zero bound is a problem for the conduct of monetary policy that even nowadays has to be considered. For several years Japan experienced deflation and a short rate very close to zero leaving monetary policy almost helpless to boost economic activity. The same fears came up in America and Europe as economic performance deteriorated and nominal interest rates were lowered rapidly to stimulate the economy. However, lowering the interest rate to stimulate the economy is only possible when interest rates are above zero. In this paper it shall be explored how optimal monetary policy is conducted with the constraint that interest rates cannot fall below zero and how large the risk to hit the bound is in the euro area. The first part is done in a New Keynesian model with sticky prices but flexible wages the second in an estimated model of the euro area. The outline of the paper is as follows. In the next chapter an overview of the work on the zero bound and monetary policy is presented. Thereafter the New Keynesian model as it was presented by Eggertson and Woodford will be used to determine optimal policy. It will be shown that quantitative easing, as it was done by the Bank of Japan, is not an appropriate tool in the model surrounding to escape a deflation spiral and what should be done instead. It will be shown that credible commitment is able to overcome most of the distortions induced by the zero bound. The central bank should commit itself to a target for the price level instead of a target for the rate of inflation. The optimal solution involves credible commitment to cause subsequent inflation when deflation vanishes. This management of expectation will help to escape a deflation spiral faster and causes lower welfare losses. After treating the phenomenon in a model surrounding it shall be explored what the chances are to slide into that vicious circle if monetary policy follows a Taylor rule and how likely the zero bound is under different wage contracting specifications. This will be done in a small estimated euro area economy model. It shall also be considered how the announcement of a positive inflation target well above zero may help to avoid the zero bound. This was done by the European Central Bank that changed its target from an inflation rate between zero and two to a rate below, but close to, two percent. Finally the results will be discussed focussing on the assumptions [...]

Zero Lower Bound and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
Zero Lower Bound and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Author: Lars Protze

Publisher: Diplomica Verlag

Published: 2008-08

Total Pages: 185

ISBN-13: 3836664909

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Central banks around the world try to influence economic activity by altering nominal interest rates which will have an effect on the real rate. However, this is only possible as long as interest rates are above zero. The case of Japan showed that monetary policy was helpless as nominal rates approached zero. This Book starts with an overview of monetary policy with the restriction that interest rates can not fall below zero. Then optimal monetary policy in a low inflation environment is treated. This is done by using a New Keynesian model with sticky prices. Therefore the model and the necessary optimality conditions will be derived (this will be done extensively in the appendix). After deriving the optimality conditions it will be shown how optimal monetary policy will be conducted. To evaluate the outcome of monetary policy a welfare function will be derived. It will be shown how the welfare function to evaluate the outcome of monetary policy is derived from the utility function of the household. As a result it will be shown that a price level target is welfare maximizing although most central banks nowadays use an inflation target instead. Reasons for an inflation target will be shown in the discussion of the model. The second part of the book describes the inflation dynamics in the euro area to see what monetary authority shall do to prevent the economy from falling into the vicious circle of deflation. Two wage contracting models that describe inflation dynamics in the euro area reasonably well will be explained, the Fuhrer-Moore und the Taylor contracting. After showing the optimal policy it will be discussed how severe the zero bound in the euro area is and what policy alternatives are left when monetary policy is restricted. Finally the results obtained will be discussed to see the pitfalls of price level targeting. The large appendix provides the complete derivation of the model and the optimality conditions.

The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability
The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability

Author: Douglas Darrell Evanoff

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 462

ISBN-13: 981444992X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The two most topical issues in current financial markets deal with the causes of the recent financial crisis and the means to prevent future crises. This book addresses the latter and stresses a major shift in most countries toward a better understanding of financial stability and how it can be achieved. In particular, the papers in this volume examine the recent change in emphasis at central banks with regard to financial stability. For example: What were the cross-country differences in emphasis on financial stability in the past Did these differences appear to affect the extent of the adverse impact of the financial crisis on individual countries What are perceived to be the major future threats to financial stability These and related issues are discussed in the book by well-known experts in the field OCo some of the best minds in the world pursuing financial stability. Following the global financial crisis, significant reforms have been initiated in many countries to address financial stability more directly, frequently focusing on macroprudential policy frameworks in which central banks play a more active role."

Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession
Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession

Author: Eskander Alvi

Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute

Published: 2017-11-20

Total Pages: 152

ISBN-13: 0880996366

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book presents a notable group of macroeconomists who describe the unprecedented events and often extraordinary policies put in place to limit the economic damage suffered during the Great Recession and then to put the economy back on track. Contributers include Barry Eichengreen; Gary Burtless; Donald Kohn; Laurence Ball, J. Bradford DeLong, and Lawrence H. Summers; and Kathryn M.E. Dominguez.