From Known Unknowns to Black Swans

From Known Unknowns to Black Swans

Author: Carlos A. Vegh

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2018-10-05

Total Pages: 91

ISBN-13: 1464813736

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"After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice."


The Black Swan

The Black Swan

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House Digital, Inc.

Published: 2009-10-13

Total Pages: 388

ISBN-13: 0812979184

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In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.


The Gray Rhino

The Gray Rhino

Author: Michele Wucker

Publisher: St. Martin's Press

Published: 2016-04-05

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 1466887001

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The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.


Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation - IT Means and Tools

Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation - IT Means and Tools

Author: Horia-Nicolai Teodorescu

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-09-08

Total Pages: 350

ISBN-13: 9401791368

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The focus of this volume is comprised of the fundamentals, models, and information technologies (IT) methods and tools for disaster prediction and mitigation. A more detailed list of topics includes mathematical and computational modeling of processes leading to or producing disasters, modeling of disaster effects, IT means for disaster mitigation, including data mining tools, knowledge-based and expert systems for use in disaster circumstances, GIS-based systems for disaster prevention and mitigation and equipment for disaster-prone areas. A specific type or class of disasters (natural or human-made), however will not be part of the main focus of this work. Instead, this book was conceived to offer a comprehensive, integrative view on disasters, seeking to determine what various disasters have in common. Because disaster resilience and mitigation involve humans, societies and cultures, not only technologies and economic models, special attention was paid in this volume to gain a comprehensive view on these issues, as a foundation of the IT tool design.


Public Sector Leadership in Assessing and Addressing Risk

Public Sector Leadership in Assessing and Addressing Risk

Author: Peter C. Young

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2022-04-04

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 1801179468

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Public Sector Leadership in Assessing and Addressing Risk explores risk management in practice, focusing on the identification of risks in the European public sector while contextualising its Eurocentric analysis within a global setting; it lays the groundwork for understanding the main philosophical premises of risk management.


Risk, Surprises and Black Swans

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans

Author: Terje Aven

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2014-08-13

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 1317626311

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Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.


New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0

New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0

Author: Russell W. Glenn

Publisher: ANU Press

Published: 2018-07-06

Total Pages: 265

ISBN-13: 1760462233

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The Australian National University’s Strategic & Defence Studies Centre (SDSC) is Australia’s premier university-based strategic studies think tank. Fifty years after the Centre was founded in 1966, SDSC celebrated its continued research, publications, teaching and government advisory role with a two-day conference entitled ‘New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0’. The event saw the podium graced by many of the world’s premier thinkers in the strategic studies field. An evening between those tours to the lectern brought together academics, practitioners and other honoured guests at a commemorative dinner held beneath the widespread wings of the ‘G for George’ bomber in the Australian War Memorial—an event that included SDSC’s own Professor Desmond Ball AO making his last public appearance. Since SDSC’s 25th anniversary, the world has seen the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Bipolarity gave way to the emergence of the United States as the world’s sole superpower, a status many now see as under threat. Both the nature of the threats and identity of individual competitors has changed in the interim quarter-century. Non-state actors are presenting rising challenges to national governments. Meanwhile, a diminished Russia and far more wealthy China seek to reassert themselves. Never before has the call for reasoned innovative security studies thinking been more pronounced. Rarely has a group so able to offer that thought come together as was the case in July 2016. This book encapsulates the essence of this cutting-edge thinking and is a must read for those concerned with emerging strategic challenges facing Australia and its security partners.


The Black Swan Problem

The Black Swan Problem

Author: Hakan Jankensgard

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2022-04-20

Total Pages: 246

ISBN-13: 1119868165

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An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility: The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.


Introduction To Finance: Financial Management And Investment Management

Introduction To Finance: Financial Management And Investment Management

Author: Pamela Peterson Drake

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2021-12-20

Total Pages: 829

ISBN-13: 9811241295

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This book covers the fundamentals of financial management and investment management without getting into the highly technical topics and mathematical rigor. It also provides a practitioner-oriented approach to financial and investment management.The field of finance covers several specialty areas. The two most important ones which set the foundations for the other specialty areas are financial management and investment management, and these are the two major topics covered in the book. After touching on the basics — the financial system and the players, financial statements, and mathematics of finance — the authors then cover financial management and investment management in greater depth. For financial management the authors focus on financial strategy and financial planning, dividend policy, corporate financing decisions, entrepreneurial finance, financial risk management, and capital budgeting decisions. The investment management coverage includes the different types of risks faced in investing, company analysis, valuing common stock, portfolio selection, asset pricing theory, and investing in common stocks and bonds. The last chapter of the book covers financial derivatives and how they are used in finance to control risk.


The Routledge Companion to Marketing Research

The Routledge Companion to Marketing Research

Author: Len Tiu Wright

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2021-06-27

Total Pages: 623

ISBN-13: 1134826869

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This single-volume reference provides an alternative to traditional marketing research methods handbooks, focusing entirely on the new and innovative methods and technologies that are transforming marketing research and practice. Including original contributions and case studies from leading global specialists, this handbook covers many pioneering methods, such as: Methods for the analysis of user- and customer-generated data, including opinion mining and sentiment analysis Big data Neuroscientific techniques and physiological measures Voice prints Human–computer interaction Emerging approaches such as shadowing, netnographies and ethnographies Transcending the old divisions between qualitative and quantitative research methods, this book is an essential tool for market researchers in academia and practice.