Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Author: Walter C. Labys

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-03-02

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1351917080

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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Author: Walter C. Labys

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2024-02-01

Total Pages: 222

ISBN-13: 100384670X

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Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.

China's Volatile Pork Industry
China's Volatile Pork Industry

Author: Fred Gale

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2012-06-14

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 9781477651032

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With China's emergence as a new source of potential demand for U.S.pork exports, it is important for U.S.farmers, business leaders, and policymakers to understand the volatile nature of China's pork industry. Prices, hog inventories, and pork output in China fluctuate from year to year in response to various factors that influence the market, and China's imports of pork tend to rise when Chinese hog prices are high. Extensive policy intervention by the Chinese government has contributed to consolida�tion in the country's pork industry but has not stabilized the market. Imported pork is becoming more competitive in China as Chinese pork production costs rise and animal disease outbreaks, environmental threats, and food safety concerns constrain growth of China's hog industry.

Journal of the American Statistical Association
Journal of the American Statistical Association

Author: American Statistical Association

Publisher:

Published: 1970

Total Pages: 1756

ISBN-13:

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A scientific and educational journal not only for professional statisticians but also for economists, business executives, research directors, government officials, university professors, and others who are seriously interested in the application of statistical methods to practical problems, in the development of more useful methods, and in the improvement of basic statistical data.

The Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis Approach
The Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis Approach

Author: Arnold Zellner

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2004-10-21

Total Pages: 736

ISBN-13: 9781139453431

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Bringing together a collection of previously published work, this book provides a discussion of major considerations relating to the construction of econometric models that work well to explain economic phenomena, predict future outcomes and be useful for policy-making. Analytical relations between dynamic econometric structural models and empirical time series MVARMA, VAR, transfer function, and univariate ARIMA models are established with important application for model-checking and model construction. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are also presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision and the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that features demand, supply and entry equations for major sectors of economies is analysed and described. This volume will prove invaluable to professionals, academics and students alike.