Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

Author: Nathan D. Grawe

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 189

ISBN-13: 1421424134

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"The economics of American higher education are driven by one key factor--the availability of students willing to pay tuition--and many related factors that determine what schools they attend. By digging into the data, economist Nathan Grawe has created probability models for predicting college attendance. What he sees are alarming events on the horizon that every college and university needs to understand. Overall, he spots demographic patterns that are tilting the US population toward the Hispanic southwest. Moreover, since 2007, fertility rates have fallen by 12 percent. Higher education analysts recognize the destabilizing potential of these trends. However, existing work fails to adjust headcounts for college attendance probabilities and makes no systematic attempt to distinguish demand by institution type. This book analyzes demand forecasts by institution type and rank, disaggregating by demographic groups. Its findings often contradict the dominant narrative: while many schools face painful contractions, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by 15+ percent. Geographic and racial profiles will shift only slightly--and attendance by Asians, not Hispanics, will grow most. Grawe also use the model to consider possible changes in institutional recruitment strategies and government policies. These "what if" analyses show that even aggressive innovation is unlikely to overcome trends toward larger gaps across racial, family income, and parent education groups. Aimed at administrators and trustees with responsibility for decisions ranging from admissions to student support to tenure practices to facilities construction, this book offers data to inform decision-making--decisions that will determine institutional success in meeting demographic challenges"--


Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

Author: Nathan D. Grawe

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 2018-01-01

Total Pages: 189

ISBN-13: 1421424142

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The decisions we make in the next five years are critical in determining whether colleges thrive or flounder. 2017 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Award for Outstanding AACRAO SEM Research Presentation Higher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility, migration, and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result, the Northeast and Midwest—traditional higher education strongholds—expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore, and in response to the Great Recession, child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026, when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses, the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years. In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI), which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups, Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges, elite institutions, and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance, he argues, depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions, for example, demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years. Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment, admissions, student support, tenure practices, facilities construction, and strategic planning, this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.


The Agile College

The Agile College

Author: Nathan D. Grawe

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 2021-01-12

Total Pages: 265

ISBN-13: 1421440245

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Following Grawe's seminal first book, this volume answers the question: How can a college or university prepare for forecasted demographic disruptions? Demographic changes promise to reshape the market for higher education in the next 15 years. Colleges are already grappling with the consequences of declining family size due to low birth rates brought on by the Great Recession, as well as the continuing shift toward minority student populations. Each institution faces a distinct market context with unique organizational strengths; no one-size-fits-all answer could suffice. In this essential follow-up to Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe explores how proactive institutions are preparing for the resulting challenges that lie ahead. While it isn't possible to reverse the demographic tide, most institutions, he argues persuasively, can mitigate the effects. Drawing on interviews with higher education leaders, Grawe explores successful avenues of response, including • recruitment initiatives • retention programs • revisions to the academic and cocurricular program • institutional growth plans • retrenchment efforts • collaborative action Throughout, Grawe presents readers with examples taken from a range of institutions—small and large, public and private, two-year and four-year, selective and open-access. While an effective response to demographic change must reflect the individual campus context, the cases Grawe analyzes will prompt conversations about the best paths forward. The Agile College also extends projections for higher education demand. Using data from the High School Longitudinal Study, the book updates prior work by incorporating new information on college-going after the Great Recession and pushes forecasts into the mid-2030s. What's more, the analysis expands to examine additional aspects of the higher education market, such as dual enrollment, transfer students, and the role of immigration in college demand.


Breakpoint

Breakpoint

Author: Jon McGee

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 2015-11-15

Total Pages: 187

ISBN-13: 1421418207

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"Higher education is in the midst of an extraordinary moment of demographic, economic, and cultural transition that has significant implications for how colleges and universities understand their mission, their market, and their management. This book is aimed at creating a practical understanding of key forces changing higher education, but it goes further. It describes those trends, discusses the real life impact of those trends on campuses, and then lays out concrete steps required to address them. Taking a page from George Keller's classic Academic Strategy, management consultant and college administrator Jon McGee uses these economic and demographic trends to inform his strategic approach to managing schools"--


Higher Education Landscape 2030

Higher Education Landscape 2030

Author: Dominic Orr

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-05-22

Total Pages: 77

ISBN-13: 3030448975

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This open access Springer Brief provides a systematic analysis of current trends and requirements in the areas of knowledge and competence in the context of the project “(A) Higher Education Digital (AHEAD)—International Horizon Scanning / Trend Analysis on Digital Higher Education.” It examines the latest developments in learning theory, didactics, and digital-education technology in connection with an increasingly digitized higher education landscape. In turn, this analysis forms the basis for envisioning higher education in 2030. Here, four learning pathways are developed to provide a glimpse of higher education in 2030: Tamagotchi, a closed ecosystem that is built around individual students who enter the university soon after secondary education; Jenga, in which universities offer a solid foundation of knowledge to build on in later phases; Lego, where the course of study is not a monolithic unit, but consists of individually combined modules of different sizes; and Transformer, where students have already acquired their own professional identities and life experiences, which they integrate into their studies. In addition, innovative practice cases are presented to illustrate each learning path.


Higher Education to 2030

Higher Education to 2030

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789265046602

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Demographic changes increasingly shape social policies as most OECD populations are aging and include more migrants and minorities. Japan and Korea have already started to see their enrollments in tertiary education decline, but other countries like Turkey and Mexico can still expect a boom. Drawing on trend data and projections, volume 1 takes a look at these important questions from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint. Issues covered include the impact of demographic changes on student enrollment, educational attainment, academic staff and policy choices. Particular attention is given to how access policies determine the demographics of tertiary education, notably by examining access to higher education for disabled and migrant students. The book covers most OECD countries, illustrating the analysis with specific examples from France, Japan, Korea and the United States. Volumes 2 and 3 examine the effects of technology and globalization, and volume 4 presents scenarios for the future of higher education systems.--Publisher's description.


The New Academic Generation

The New Academic Generation

Author: Martin J. Finkelstein

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 1998-05-29

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 9780801858864

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Higher education researchers Martin Finkelstein, Robert Seal, and Jack Schuster focus on the changing face of American academe, as women, foreign-born, and minority scholars enter the professorate in large numbers. Considering this trend, the authors argue that the next generation will usher in an era of dramatic changes and that the long-term implications of these changes will be profound. 7 illustrations.


Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation

Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2011-07-29

Total Pages: 229

ISBN-13: 0309159687

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In order for the United States to maintain the global leadership and competitiveness in science and technology that are critical to achieving national goals, we must invest in research, encourage innovation, and grow a strong and talented science and technology workforce. Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation explores the role of diversity in the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) workforce and its value in keeping America innovative and competitive. According to the book, the U.S. labor market is projected to grow faster in science and engineering than in any other sector in the coming years, making minority participation in STEM education at all levels a national priority. Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation analyzes the rate of change and the challenges the nation currently faces in developing a strong and diverse workforce. Although minorities are the fastest growing segment of the population, they are underrepresented in the fields of science and engineering. Historically, there has been a strong connection between increasing educational attainment in the United States and the growth in and global leadership of the economy. Expanding Underrepresented Minority Participation suggests that the federal government, industry, and post-secondary institutions work collaboratively with K-12 schools and school systems to increase minority access to and demand for post-secondary STEM education and technical training. The book also identifies best practices and offers a comprehensive road map for increasing involvement of underrepresented minorities and improving the quality of their education. It offers recommendations that focus on academic and social support, institutional roles, teacher preparation, affordability and program development.