Bayesian Field Theory
Bayesian Field Theory

Author: Jörg C. Lemm

Publisher: JHU Press

Published: 2003-06-06

Total Pages: 442

ISBN-13: 9780801872204

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Ask a traditional mathematician the likely outcome of a coin-toss, and he will reply that no evidence exists on which to base such a prediction. Ask a Bayesian, and he will examine the coin, conclude that it was probably not tampered with, and predict five hundred heads in a thousand tosses; a subsequent experiment would then be used to refine this prediction. The Bayesian approach, in other words, permits the use of prior knowledge when testing a hypothesis. Long the province of mathematicians and statisticians, Bayesian methods are applied in this ground-breaking book to problems in cutting-edge physics. Joerg Lemm offers practical examples of Bayesian analysis for the physicist working in such areas as neural networks, artificial intelligence, and inverse problems in quantum theory. The book also includes nonparametric density estimation problems, including, as special cases, nonparametric regression and pattern recognition. Thought-provoking and sure to be controversial, Bayesian Field Theory will be of interest to physicists as well as to other specialists in the rapidly growing number of fields that make use of Bayesian methods. -- Achim Weiguny, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik

Bayes Theory
Bayes Theory

Author: J. A. Hartigan

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 154

ISBN-13: 1461382424

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This book is based on lectures given at Yale in 1971-1981 to students prepared with a course in measure-theoretic probability. It contains one technical innovation-probability distributions in which the total probability is infinite. Such improper distributions arise embarras singly frequently in Bayes theory, especially in establishing correspondences between Bayesian and Fisherian techniques. Infinite probabilities create interesting complications in defining conditional probability and limit concepts. The main results are theoretical, probabilistic conclusions derived from probabilistic assumptions. A useful theory requires rules for constructing and interpreting probabilities. Probabilities are computed from similarities, using a formalization of the idea that the future will probably be like the past. Probabilities are objectively derived from similarities, but similarities are sUbjective judgments of individuals. Of course the theorems remain true in any interpretation of probability that satisfies the formal axioms. My colleague David Potlard helped a lot, especially with Chapter 13. Dan Barry read proof. vii Contents CHAPTER 1 Theories of Probability 1. 0. Introduction 1 1. 1. Logical Theories: Laplace 1 1. 2. Logical Theories: Keynes and Jeffreys 2 1. 3. Empirical Theories: Von Mises 3 1. 4. Empirical Theories: Kolmogorov 5 1. 5. Empirical Theories: Falsifiable Models 5 1. 6. Subjective Theories: De Finetti 6 7 1. 7. Subjective Theories: Good 8 1. 8. All the Probabilities 10 1. 9. Infinite Axioms 11 1. 10. Probability and Similarity 1. 11. References 13 CHAPTER 2 Axioms 14 2. 0. Notation 14 2. 1. Probability Axioms 14 2. 2.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition
Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

Author: Andrew Gelman

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2013-11-01

Total Pages: 677

ISBN-13: 1439840954

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Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Advanced Mean Field Methods
Advanced Mean Field Methods

Author: Manfred Opper

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 9780262150545

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This book covers the theoretical foundations of advanced mean field methods, explores the relation between the different approaches, examines the quality of the approximation obtained, and demonstrates their application to various areas of probabilistic modeling. A major problem in modern probabilistic modeling is the huge computational complexity involved in typical calculations with multivariate probability distributions when the number of random variables is large. Because exact computations are infeasible in such cases and Monte Carlo sampling techniques may reach their limits, there is a need for methods that allow for efficient approximate computations. One of the simplest approximations is based on the mean field method, which has a long history in statistical physics. The method is widely used, particularly in the growing field of graphical models. Researchers from disciplines such as statistical physics, computer science, and mathematical statistics are studying ways to improve this and related methods and are exploring novel application areas. Leading approaches include the variational approach, which goes beyond factorizable distributions to achieve systematic improvements; the TAP (Thouless-Anderson-Palmer) approach, which incorporates correlations by including effective reaction terms in the mean field theory; and the more general methods of graphical models. Bringing together ideas and techniques from these diverse disciplines, this book covers the theoretical foundations of advanced mean field methods, explores the relation between the different approaches, examines the quality of the approximation obtained, and demonstrates their application to various areas of probabilistic modeling.

The Theory That Would Not Die
The Theory That Would Not Die

Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Publisher: Yale University Press

Published: 2011-05-17

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 0300175094

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"This account of how a once reviled theory, Baye’s rule, came to underpin modern life is both approachable and engrossing" (Sunday Times). A New York Times Book Review Editors’ Choice Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the generations-long human drama surrounding it. McGrayne traces the rule’s discovery by an 18th century amateur mathematician through its development by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—while practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, such as Alan Turing's work breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II. McGrayne also explains how the advent of computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

Bayesian Approach to Global Optimization
Bayesian Approach to Global Optimization

Author: Jonas Mockus

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 267

ISBN-13: 9400909098

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·Et moi ... si j'avait su comment en revcnir. One service mathematics has rendered the je o'y semis point alle.' human race. It has put common sense back Jules Verne where it beloogs. on the topmost shelf next to the dusty canister labelled 'discarded non The series is divergent; therefore we may be sense', able to do something with it. Eric T. BclI O. Heaviside Mathematics is a tool for thought. A highly necessary tool in a world where both feedback and non linearities abound. Similarly, all kinds of parts of mathematics serve as tools for other parts and for other sciences. Applying a simple rewriting rule to the quote on the right above one finds such statements as: 'One service topology has rendered mathematical physics ... '; 'One service logic has rendered com puter science .. .'; 'One service category theory has rendered mathematics .. .'. All arguably true. And all statements obtainable this way form part of the raison d'etre of this series.

The Biggest Ideas in the Universe
The Biggest Ideas in the Universe

Author: Sean Carroll

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2022-09-20

Total Pages: 305

ISBN-13: 0593186583

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INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “Most appealing... technical accuracy and lightness of tone... Impeccable.”—Wall Street Journal “A porthole into another world.”—Scientific American “Brings science dissemination to a new level.”—Science The most trusted explainer of the most mind-boggling concepts pulls back the veil of mystery that has too long cloaked the most valuable building blocks of modern science. Sean Carroll, with his genius for making complex notions entertaining, presents in his uniquely lucid voice the fundamental ideas informing the modern physics of reality. Physics offers deep insights into the workings of the universe but those insights come in the form of equations that often look like gobbledygook. Sean Carroll shows that they are really like meaningful poems that can help us fly over sierras to discover a miraculous multidimensional landscape alive with radiant giants, warped space-time, and bewilderingly powerful forces. High school calculus is itself a centuries-old marvel as worthy of our gaze as the Mona Lisa. And it may come as a surprise the extent to which all our most cutting-edge ideas about black holes are built on the math calculus enables. No one else could so smoothly guide readers toward grasping the very equation Einstein used to describe his theory of general relativity. In the tradition of the legendary Richard Feynman lectures presented sixty years ago, this book is an inspiring, dazzling introduction to a way of seeing that will resonate across cultural and generational boundaries for many years to come.

Bayesian Theory and Applications
Bayesian Theory and Applications

Author: Paul Damien

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2013-01-24

Total Pages: 717

ISBN-13: 0199695601

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This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.

Non-Bayesian Decision Theory
Non-Bayesian Decision Theory

Author: Martin Peterson

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-06-06

Total Pages: 176

ISBN-13: 1402086997

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For quite some time, philosophers, economists, and statisticians have endorsed a view on rational choice known as Bayesianism. The work on this book has grown out of a feeling that the Bayesian view has come to dominate the academic com- nitytosuchanextentthatalternative,non-Bayesianpositionsareseldomextensively researched. Needless to say, I think this is a pity. Non-Bayesian positions deserve to be examined with much greater care, and the present work is an attempt to defend what I believe to be a coherent and reasonably detailed non-Bayesian account of decision theory. The main thesis I defend can be summarised as follows. Rational agents m- imise subjective expected utility, but contrary to what is claimed by Bayesians, ut- ity and subjective probability should not be de?ned in terms of preferences over uncertain prospects. On the contrary, rational decision makers need only consider preferences over certain outcomes. It will be shown that utility and probability fu- tions derived in a non-Bayesian manner can be used for generating preferences over uncertain prospects, that support the principle of maximising subjective expected utility. To some extent, this non-Bayesian view gives an account of what modern - cision theory could have been like, had decision theorists not entered the Bayesian path discovered by Ramsey, de Finetti, Savage, and others. I will not discuss all previous non-Bayesian positions presented in the literature.

Bayesian Methods in Cosmology
Bayesian Methods in Cosmology

Author: Michael P. Hobson

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 317

ISBN-13: 0521887941

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Comprehensive introduction to Bayesian methods in cosmological studies, for graduate students and researchers in cosmology, astrophysics and applied statistics.