Statistical Rethinking

Statistical Rethinking

Author: Richard McElreath

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2018-01-03

Total Pages: 488

ISBN-13: 1315362619

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Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.


Darling Rose Gold

Darling Rose Gold

Author: Stephanie Wrobel

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2021-03-30

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 1982135069

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A dark, shocking, bestselling thriller debut about a mother and daughter—and the lengths to which a daughter will go to find independence. “Nobody wants to hear the truth from a liar.” For the first eighteen years of her life, Rose Gold Watts believed she was seriously ill. She was allergic to everything, used a wheelchair, and practically lived at the hospital. Neighbors did all they could, holding fundraisers and offering shoulders to cry on, but no matter how many doctors, tests, or surgeries, no one could figure out what was wrong with her. Turns out her mom, Patty Watts, was just a really good liar. After serving five years in prison, Patty gets out with nowhere to go and begs her daughter to take her in. The entire community is shocked when Rose Gold says yes. Patty insists all she wants is to reconcile their differences. She says she’s forgiven Rose Gold for turning her in and testifying against her. But Rose Gold knows her mother. Patty Watts always settles a score. Unfortunately for Patty, Rose Gold is no longer her weak little darling… And she’s waited such a long time for her mother to come home.


And the People Stayed Home (Family Book, Coronavirus Kids Book, Nature Book)

And the People Stayed Home (Family Book, Coronavirus Kids Book, Nature Book)

Author: Kitty O'Meara

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2020-11-10

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13: 1734761806

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“Kitty O’Meara…offers us wisdom that can help during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. She is challenging us to grow."—Deepak Chopra, MD, author, Metahuman “Kitty O'Meara is the poet laureate of the pandemic"—O, The Oprah Magazine "An eloquent, heartwarming reflection that will resonate with generations to come… encouragement for a brighter tomorrow."—Kate Winslet "And the People Stayed Home is an uplifting perspective on the resilience of the human spirit and the healing potential we have to change our world for the better." ––Shelf Awareness “Images of nature healing show the author’s vision of hope for the future…The accessible prose and beautiful images make this a natural selection for young readers, but older ones may appreciate the work’s deeper meaning.”— Kirkus Reviews “This is a perfectly illustrated version of a poem that continues to be relevant.”—School Library Journal “A stunning and peaceful offering of introspection and hope.”—The Children’s Book Review Ten Best Children’s Books of 2020: "A calming, optimistic read, and a salve for children trying their best to navigate this time." —Smithsonian Magazine “It captured the kind of optimism people need right now.”—Esquire (UK) “Thank you, Kitty O'Meara…for pointing out that at this very moment, this very day, we can seize the opportunity to restore wholeness to our world."—Sy Montgomery, bestselling author of The Good Good Pig and The Soul of an Octopus “A poem by American writer Kitty O’Meara has deservedly gone viral.”—Edinburgh Evening News And the People Stayed Home is a beautifully produced picture book featuring Kitty O’Meara’s popular, globally viral prose poem about the coronavirus pandemic, which has a hopeful and timeless message. Kitty O’Meara, author of And the People Stayed Home, has been called the “poet laureate of the pandemic.” This illustrated children’s book (ages 4-8) will also appeal to readers of all ages. O’Meara’s thoughtful poem about the pandemic, quarantine, and the future suggests there is meaning to be found in our shared experience of the coronavirus and conveys an optimistic message about the possibility of profound healing for people and the planet. Her words encourage us to look within, listen deeply, and connect with ourselves and the earth in order to heal. O’Meara, a former teacher and chaplain and a spiritual director, clearly captures important aspects of the pandemic experience. Her words, written in March 2020 and shared on Facebook, immediately resonated nationally and internationally and were widely circulated on social media, covered in mainstream news media, and inspired an outpouring of creativity from musicians, dancers, artists, filmmakers, and more. The many highlights include an original composition by John Corigliano that was premiered by Renée Fleming.


By a Thread

By a Thread

Author: Lucy Score

Publisher: Hodder Paperbacks

Published: 2023-07-13

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781399726887

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From Sunday Times and #1 New York Times bestselling author of Things We Never Got Over Dominic: I got her fired. Okay, so I'd had a bad day, but there's nothing innocent about Ally Morales. Maybe her colourful, annoying, inexplicably alluring personality brightens up the magazine's offices that have felt like a prison for the past year. Maybe I like that she argues with me in front of the editorial staff. And maybe my after-hours fantasies are haunted by her brown eyes and sharp tongue. She's working herself to death at half a dozen dead-end jobs for some secret reason. And I'm going to fix it all. Don't accuse me of caring. She's nothing more than a puzzle to be solved. If I can get her to quit, I can finally peel away all those layers. Then I can go back to salvaging the family name and forget all about the dancing, beer-slinging brunette. Ally: Ha. Hold my beer, Grumpy Grump Face.


Notes on Grief

Notes on Grief

Author: Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie

Publisher: Knopf

Published: 2021-05-11

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 0593320816

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From the globally acclaimed, best-selling novelist and author of We Should All Be Feminists, a timely and deeply personal account of the loss of her father: “With raw eloquence, Notes on Grief … captures the bewildering messiness of loss in a society that requires serenity, when you’d rather just scream. Grief is impolite ... Adichie’s words put welcome, authentic voice to this most universal of emotions, which is also one of the most universally avoided” (The Washington Post). Notes on Grief is an exquisite work of meditation, remembrance, and hope, written in the wake of Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie's beloved father’s death in the summer of 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic raged around the world, and kept Adichie and her family members separated from one another, her father succumbed unexpectedly to complications of kidney failure. Expanding on her original New Yorker piece, Adichie shares how this loss shook her to her core. She writes about being one of the millions of people grieving this year; about the familial and cultural dimensions of grief and also about the loneliness and anger that are unavoidable in it. With signature precision of language, and glittering, devastating detail on the page—and never without touches of rich, honest humor—Adichie weaves together her own experience of her father’s death with threads of his life story, from his remarkable survival during the Biafran war, through a long career as a statistics professor, into the days of the pandemic in which he’d stay connected with his children and grandchildren over video chat from the family home in Abba, Nigeria. In the compact format of We Should All Be Feminists and Dear Ijeawele, Adichie delivers a gem of a book—a book that fundamentally connects us to one another as it probes one of the most universal human experiences. Notes on Grief is a book for this moment—a work readers will treasure and share now more than ever—and yet will prove durable and timeless, an indispensable addition to Adichie's canon.


The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind

The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind

Author: Julian Jaynes

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Published: 2000-08-15

Total Pages: 580

ISBN-13: 0547527543

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National Book Award Finalist: “This man’s ideas may be the most influential, not to say controversial, of the second half of the twentieth century.”—Columbus Dispatch At the heart of this classic, seminal book is Julian Jaynes's still-controversial thesis that human consciousness did not begin far back in animal evolution but instead is a learned process that came about only three thousand years ago and is still developing. The implications of this revolutionary scientific paradigm extend into virtually every aspect of our psychology, our history and culture, our religion—and indeed our future. “Don’t be put off by the academic title of Julian Jaynes’s The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind. Its prose is always lucid and often lyrical…he unfolds his case with the utmost intellectual rigor.”—The New York Times “When Julian Jaynes . . . speculates that until late in the twentieth millennium BC men had no consciousness but were automatically obeying the voices of the gods, we are astounded but compelled to follow this remarkable thesis.”—John Updike, The New Yorker “He is as startling as Freud was in The Interpretation of Dreams, and Jaynes is equally as adept at forcing a new view of known human behavior.”—American Journal of Psychiatry


The Ultimate Homeschool Planner

The Ultimate Homeschool Planner

Author: Debra Bell

Publisher: Apologia Educational Ministries

Published: 2011-08-01

Total Pages: 263

ISBN-13: 9781935495659

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Count your blessings while charting your family's homeschool journey with this gorgeous day planner from best-selling author Debra Bell. The Ultimate Homeschool Planner will help you prayerfully prioritize your family's lessons, assignments, and activities as well as academic and personal growth goals for each of your children. Includes teaching helps, record-keeping, and pages to document God's faithfulness throughout the year.


Ayesha at Last

Ayesha at Last

Author: Uzma Jalaluddin

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2019-06-04

Total Pages: 356

ISBN-13: 1984802801

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As seen on The Today Show! One of the best summer romance picks! One of Publishers Weekly Best Romance Books of 2019! A modern-day Muslim Pride and Prejudice for a new generation of love. Ayesha Shamsi has a lot going on. Her dreams of being a poet have been set aside for a teaching job so she can pay off her debts to her wealthy uncle. She lives with her boisterous Muslim family and is always being reminded that her flighty younger cousin, Hafsa, is close to rejecting her one hundredth marriage proposal. Though Ayesha is lonely, she doesn't want an arranged marriage. Then she meets Khalid, who is just as smart and handsome as he is conservative and judgmental. She is irritatingly attracted to someone who looks down on her choices and who dresses like he belongs in the seventh century. When a surprise engagement is announced between Khalid and Hafsa, Ayesha is torn between how she feels about the straightforward Khalid and the unsettling new gossip she hears about his family. Looking into the rumors, she finds she has to deal with not only what she discovers about Khalid, but also the truth she realizes about herself.


Zenspirations

Zenspirations

Author: Joanne Fink

Publisher: Fox Chapel Publishing

Published: 2014-02-01

Total Pages: 138

ISBN-13: 1607651173

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Patterning is fun, easy and relaxing. It is a great way to add interest and texture to any design. Whether you like to journal, draw, doodle, design, or craft, you'll find a world of inspiration here. These decorative borders, frames, shapes, and alphabets will appeal to a spectrum of tastes and styles.