Uncertainty and Unemployment
Uncertainty and Unemployment

Author: Sangyup Choi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-02-23

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1498356303

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We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Productivity Shocks, Unemployment Persistence, and the Adjustment of Real Wages
Productivity Shocks, Unemployment Persistence, and the Adjustment of Real Wages

Author: Razvan C. Pascalau

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This paper applies a set of unit root and cointegration tests with non-linear error-correction mechanisms to a subset of the OECD countries to investigate the empirical conclusions of some of the labor market models in the literature. I generally find that the unemployment rate, productivity, and real wages have a unit root even if one controls for threshold effects. This finding justifies the use of a cointegration approach to assess the existence of a long-run equilibrium among the variables of interest. For roughly half of the OECD countries in the sample, the unemployment rate, real wages, and productivity trend together over time. For four countries (i.e, Germany, Japan, Sweden, and the US) the adjustment to the long run relationship appears mostly asymmetric. Also, an impulse response function analysis suggests that real wages and productivity adjust faster to the long-run equilibrium, while shocks to unemployment take longer to extinguish. Also, according to the sign of the shocks, the unemployment rates respond differently. These findings suggest that a proper analysis of the behavior of productivity, real wages, and unemployment should consider non-linear adjustment mechanisms to long-run equilibrium since a liner approach would be biased.

Why is Unemployment so High At Full Capacity? The Persistence of Unemployment, the Natural Rate, and Potential Output in the Federal Republic of Germany
Why is Unemployment so High At Full Capacity? The Persistence of Unemployment, the Natural Rate, and Potential Output in the Federal Republic of Germany

Author: Mr.David T. Coe

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-10-01

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1451948484

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The empirical analysis indicates that in the Federal Republic the unemployed primarily influence the relationship between the level of real wages and productivity, rather than the growth of wages. This result suggests a distinction between an equilibrium natural rate of unemployment, which is estimated to have been 3-4 percent in the 1980s, and a quasi-equilibrium unemployment rate closer to actual rates of 7-8 percent. Corresponding to these two concepts of equilibrium unemployment, estimates are presented of alternative concepts of potential output that differ according to whether labor input is consistent with the quasi-equilibrium rate of unemployment or with the natural rate of unemployment.

Unemployment
Unemployment

Author: Tabitha Fletcher

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781634851817

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This book discusses unemployment and its relations to economic, political and social aspects. The first chapter studies the relationship of unemployment to the level of confidence that characterizes some macroeconomic relevant agents, such as consumers or investors. Chapter Two investigates the effects of productivity growth shocks on unemployment, both in the short run and in the medium - long run. Chapter Three reviews finite sample inference for unemployment-inflation tradeoff. Chapter Four focuses on understanding how the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and/or long-term labor market changes may have separately or jointly affected health among employed workers in 2010. Chapter Five evaluates the persistence of the unemployment rate in the following emerging European countries: Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Cyprus, Malta, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Chapter Six discusses the case of election results on the political aspects of unemployment. Chapter Seven studies the relationship between unemployment and the (individual) perceived levels of well-being, such as life satisfaction or happiness. Chapter Eight assesses the association between homelessness and survival in a population of unemployed individuals in one region of northern Poland. Chapter Nine studies the impact that educational level and vocational training programmes had on the labour market of semi-peripheral EU countries, using Greece as a case study. Chapter Ten estimates the effects of area unemployment rate on smoking and drinking in China.

Unemployment and Macroeconomics
Unemployment and Macroeconomics

Author: Assar Lindbeck

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 1993

Total Pages: 244

ISBN-13: 9780262121750

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Balancing theoretical insights with lessons drawn from the experience of many countries, Lindbeck examines employment and unemployment against the background of developed market economies during the past century.

Short and Long-Run Effects of Productivity on Unemployment
Short and Long-Run Effects of Productivity on Unemployment

Author: Willi Semmler

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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Okun's (1962) seminal paper is an important study on economic growth and unemployment but a detailed exploration of the effect of productivity growth on unemployment has been left aside. Yet, the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment has been debated since long. In this paper we present stylized facts on the link between productivity growth and unemployment for the short and long run, and present model variants that demonstrate that in the short run productivity growth can have a negative effect on employment - or may even increase unemployment - while in the long run the relationship between productivity growth and employment are likely to co-vary positively. Using US data, empirically we decompose the time series of unemployment rate and productivity growth into long run and short run components and show empirical evidence that the long run and short run components co-vary as predicted by some theories.