Uncertainty and Unemployment

Uncertainty and Unemployment

Author: Sangyup Choi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-02-23

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1498356303

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We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.


Developments in Labour Market Analysis

Developments in Labour Market Analysis

Author: Caroline Joll

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2018-12-07

Total Pages: 408

ISBN-13: 0429658184

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First published in 1983. This text is designed to enable intermediate and advanced students to attain familiarity with the theoretical concepts used in labour market analysis, and to apply them fruitfully to the economic problem of labour markets. Each chapter of Section I deals with a different theoretical development of the basic labour market model of utility maximising labour supply and the marginal productivity theory of labour demand. In addition, the authors discuss in depth uncharted territory including the analysis of uncertainty and discrimination in labour markets and advances in human capital theory, in each case covering the implications both for equity and the efficient allocation of resources. Each chapter of Section II analyses an important economic problem - for instance wage determination, unemployment and inflation - using the theoretical insights derived from Section I. The contributions of different theoretical developments are assessed by reference to the current state of empirical research into labour market problems. This book stresses the interaction between labour market mechanisms and also between market and non-market forces in the belief that this will lead to a greater understanding of the operation of the labour market than can be gained by viewing each theoretical development in isolation from the others.


The Importance of Work in an Age of Uncertainty

The Importance of Work in an Age of Uncertainty

Author: David L. Blustein

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 9780190213701

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Work plays an essential role in how we engage with the world, reflecting our desire to be productive, creative, and connected to others. By exploring the inner experiences of people at work, people seeking work, and people transitioning in and out of work, this book provides a rich and complex picture of the contemporary work experience. Drawing from extensive interviews with working people across the US, as well as insights from psychological research on work and careers, the book provides compelling evidence that the nature of work in the US is eroding-- and with powerful psychological and social consequences. From this conclusion, the book also illustrates the rationale and roadmap for a renewed agenda toward full employment and toward fair and dignified jobs for all who want to work. The emotional insights complement the conclusions of the best science and policy analyses on working, culminating in a powerful call for policies that attend to the real lives of individuals in 21st century America. By weaving these various sources together, Blustein delineates a conception of working that conveys its complexity, richness, and capacity for both joy and despair.


The Tolls of Uncertainty

The Tolls of Uncertainty

Author: Sarah Damaske

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2021-05-25

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 0691219311

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An indispensable investigation into the American unemployment system and the ways gender and class affect the lives of those looking for work Through the intimate stories of those seeking work, The Tolls of Uncertainty offers a startling look at the nation’s unemployment system—who it helps, who it hurts, and what, if anything, we can do to make it fair. Drawing on interviews with one hundred men and women who have lost jobs across Pennsylvania, Sarah Damaske examines the ways unemployment shapes families, finances, health, and the job hunt. Damaske demonstrates that commonly held views of unemployment are either incomplete or just plain wrong. Shaped by a person’s gender and class, unemployment generates new inequalities that cast uncertainties on the search for work and on life chances beyond the world of work, threatening opportunity in America. Following in depth the lives of four individuals over the course of their unemployment experiences, Damaske offers insights into how the unemployed perceive their relationship to work. She reveals the high levels of blame that women who have lost jobs place on themselves, leading them to put their families’ needs above their own, sacrifice their health, and take on more tasks inside the home. This “guilt gap” illustrates how unemployment all too often exacerbates existing differences between men and women. Class privilege, too, gives some an advantage, while leaving others at the mercy of an underfunded unemployment system. Middle-class men are generally able to create the time and space to search for good work, but many others are bogged down by the challenges of poverty-level unemployment benefits and family pressures and fall further behind. Timely and engaging, The Tolls of Uncertainty posits that a new path must be taken if the nation’s unemployed are to find real relief.


Globalization, Uncertainty, and Men's Careers

Globalization, Uncertainty, and Men's Careers

Author: Hans-Peter Blossfeld

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2006-01-01

Total Pages: 536

ISBN-13: 9781782542384

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Globalization, argue the contributors to this book, has remarkably accelerated social and economic change in modern societies. One such change is manifested in the world of work and careers. This book explores whether the forces of globalization affect the erosion of standard career patterns of mid-career men in twelve OECD countries. Overwhelming evidence against the 'individualization of inequality' thesis is provided - it is argued that equality remains largely stratified by factors such as occupational class and educational level, and in some countries has even grown over time.


Internet and Network Economics

Internet and Network Economics

Author: Amin Saberi

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2010-12-06

Total Pages: 590

ISBN-13: 3642175724

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, WINE 2010, held in Stanford, USA, in December 2010. The 52 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 95 submissions. The papers are organized in 33 regular papers and 19 short papers.


Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Author: Laurence M. Ball

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-06-01

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 1455263389

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This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.


Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author: Frank H. Knight

Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.

Published: 2006-11-01

Total Pages: 401

ISBN-13: 1602060053

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A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.


Strong Governments, Precarious Workers

Strong Governments, Precarious Workers

Author: Philip Rathgeb

Publisher: Cornell University Press

Published: 2018-12-15

Total Pages: 157

ISBN-13: 1501730606

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Why do some European welfare states protect unemployed and inadequately employed workers ("outsiders") from economic uncertainty better than others? Philip Rathgeb’s study of labor market policy change in three somewhat-similar small states—Austria, Denmark, and Sweden—explores this fundamental question. He does so by examining the distribution of power between trade unions and political parties, attempting to bridge these two lines of research—trade unions and party politics—that, with few exceptions, have advanced without a mutual exchange. Inclusive trade unions have high political stakes in the protection of outsiders, because they incorporate workers at risk of unemployment into their representational outlook. Yet, the impact of union preferences has declined over time, with a shift in the balance of class power from labor to capital across the Western world. National governments have accordingly prioritized flexibility for employers over the social protection of outsiders. As a result, organized labor can only protect outsiders when governments are reliant on union consent for successful consensus mobilization. When governments have a united majority of seats, on the other hand, they are strong enough to exclude unions. Strong Governments, Precarious Workers calls into question the electoral responsiveness of national governments—and thus political parties—to the social needs of an increasingly numerous group of precarious workers. In the end, Rathgeb concludes that the weaker the government, the stronger the capacity of organized labor to enhance the social protection of precarious workers.