Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.
Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.
Accurate traffic forecasts for highway planning and design help ensure that public dollars are spent wisely. Forecasts inform discussions about whether, when, how, and where to invest public resources to manage traffic flow, widen and remodel existing facilities, and where to locate, align, and how to size new ones. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research seeks to develop a process and methods by which to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. The report also includes tools for engineers and planners who are involved in generating traffic forecasts, including: Quantile Regression Models, a Traffic Accuracy Assessment, a Forecast Archive Annotated Outline, a Deep Dive Annotated Outline, and Deep Dive Assessment Tables.
"TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 722: Assessing Highway Tolling and Pricing Options and Impacts provides state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other transportation agencies with a decision-making framework and analytical tools that describe likely impacts on revenue generation and system performance resulting from instituting or modifying user-based fees or tolling on segments of their highway system. Volume 2: Travel Demand Forecasting Tools provides an in-depth examination of the various analytical tools for direct or adapted use that are available to help develop the forecasts of potential revenue, transportation demand, and congestion and system performance based on tolling or pricing changes. Volume 1: Decision-Making Framework includes information on a decision-making framework that may be applied to a variety of scenarios in order to understand the potential impacts of tolling and pricing on the performance of the transportation system, and on the potential to generate revenue to pay for system improvements"--Publication information.
A transportation expert makes a provocative case for changing the nation’s approach to highways, offering “bold, innovative thinking on infrastructure” (Rick Geddes, Cornell University). Americans spend hours every day sitting in traffic. And the roads they idle on are often rough and potholed, with exits, tunnels, guardrails, and bridges in terrible disrepair. According to transportation expert Robert Poole, this congestion and deterioration are outcomes of the way America manages its highways. Our twentieth-century model overly politicizes highway investment decisions, short-changing maintenance and often investing in projects whose costs exceed their benefits. In Rethinking America’s Highways, Poole examines how our current model of state-owned highways came about and why it is failing to satisfy its customers. He argues for a new model that treats highways themselves as public utilities—like electricity, telephones, and water supply. If highways were provided commercially, Poole argues, people would pay for highways based on how much they used, and the companies would issue revenue bonds to invest in facilities people were willing to pay for. Arguing for highway investments to be motivated by economic rather than political factors, this book makes a carefully-reasoned and well-documented case for a new approach to highways.
Second in a two-volume set, this book discusses the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in global transportation infrastructure, specifically focusing on roads, bridges, and parking. To provide vital services in an era of shrinking government budgets, public-private partnerships have become an increasingly important part of travel infrastructure worldwide. This book describes and analyses the structure of various models of PPPs in several countries, evaluating their effectiveness, and drawing policy implications for future use. The chapters were written by leading international researchers and practitioners in the transportation field where each chapter is a case study on the adoption, implementation, and outcome of transportation services. Taken together, these diverse case studies provide an integrated framework for evaluating, using PPPs, and suggesting policy implications to both the public and the private sectors in transportation. Providing rigorous empirical analysis of PPPs in transportation, this volume will be of interest to researchers in public administration, political science, public choice, and economics as well as practitioners and policymakers involved in establishing and monitoring PPPs in transportation.
The collapse of previous command economic structures in Eastern Europe has led to an often chaotic reorganization of transport operations. Southeastern Europe in particular not only lags behind the western EU countries in terms of transport infrastructure, but also in terms of management and policy. However, despite this, or perhaps even because there are no long-standing established patterns, this region is a fertile territory for innovation. Based on the first major international conference dealing with transport issues in Southeastern Europe, this edited volume brings together key researchers and policy makers to discuss and critically analyse these innovations. Focusing on issues related to privatization and harmonization of national legislation, the contributors also address the countries' struggle with inadequate management structures and the challenges posed in running shipping, ports and railways in a region fragmented into numerous nations and states. It not only provides an up-to-date overview of transport operations and planning in Southeastern Europe, but also provides more general insights into recent and current developments in a region that has undergone widespread upheavals in the past two decades, and is now experiencing renewed growth.
The Second Edition of this best-selling introduction for practitioners uses new material and updates to describe the changing environment for project finance. Integrating recent developments in credit markets with revised insights into making project finance deals, the second edition offers a balanced view of project financing by combining legal, contractual, scheduling, and other subjects. Its emphasis on concepts and techniques makes it critical for those who want to succeed in financing large projects. With extensive cross-references and a comprehensive glossary, the Second Edition presents anew a guide to the principles and practical issues that can commonly cause difficulties in commercial and financial negotiations. - Provides a basic introduction to project finance and its relationship with other financing techniques - Describes and explains: sources of project finance; typical commercial contracts (e.g., for construction of the project and sale of its product or services) and their effects on project-finance structures; project-finance risk assessment from the points of view of lenders, investors, and other project parties; how lenders and investors evaluate the risks and returns on a project; the rôle of the public sector in public-private partnerships and other privately-financed infrastructure projects; how all these issues are dealt with in the financing agreements
