The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy

Author: MissStephanie Denis

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-03-08

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 161635562X

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This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.

The Economic Impact of Uncertainty on France, Germany and the United Kingdom
The Economic Impact of Uncertainty on France, Germany and the United Kingdom

Author: Jens Biewer

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2020-03-17

Total Pages: 63

ISBN-13: 3346132595

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Master's Thesis from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1,3, University of Trier, language: English, abstract: This work deals with the economic impact of uncertainty on macroeconomically important variables in three countries: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. First, the econometric bases are derived, starting with a univariate case. With the introduction of the vector autoregressive model, time series of variables are included, which all depend on and influence each other. Subsequently, the individual preparations, such as Cholesky decomposition, are made to derive the innovations that flow into the system. After the data and variables to be considered for the model have been described in detail, stationarity tests must be carried out to enable consistent estimates to be made later. For this it is necessary to perform additional transformations. Finally, the VAR model is estimated and the results can be visualized and interpreted. It is shown that short-term shocks in uncertainty have different impacts on the variables under consideration. In addition, country-specific responses can be identified in the course of the Impulse Response Functions, differing in terms of amplitude, direction, behavior and persistence. With the help of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, interdependencies between variables can be identified and possibly put into a logical, functional context.

The Impact of Uncertainty and Certainty Shocks
The Impact of Uncertainty and Certainty Shocks

Author: Yves S. Schüler

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9783957296870

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I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom's (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future real economic activity growth, in line with a risk shock. Conversely, a certainty shock (a shock strongly decreasing uncertainty) narrows the conditional distribution of future real activity growth. In addition to the difference in signs, I show that the two shocks are different shocks. Each shock impacts the real economy uniquely. I support this with the underlying events: For instance, uncertainty shocks relate to events such as Black Monday and 9/11, but also to fears about future negative economic outcomes. In contrast, certainty shocks often link to phases of irrational exuberance. Commonly, no distinction is made between uncertainty and certainty shocks. I show that uncertainty shocks become more important if distinguished from certainty shocks.

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9780753019443

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Uncertainty appears to vary strongly over time, temporarily rising by up to 200% around major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK and 9/11. This paper offers the first structural framework to analyze uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm level data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in employment, investment and productivity, and a moderate loss in GDP. This temporary impact of a second moment shock is different from the typically persistent impact of a first moment shock, highlighting the importance for policymakers of identifying their relative magnitudes in major shocks. The simulation of an uncertainty shock is then compared to actual 9/11 data, displaying a surprisingly good match.

Uncertainty and Unemployment
Uncertainty and Unemployment

Author: Sangyup Choi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-02-23

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1498356303

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We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Continental Europe Versus the Anglo-Saxon World
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Continental Europe Versus the Anglo-Saxon World

Author: Joris de Wind

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13: 9789058337429

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We show empirically that uncertainty shocks are followed by deeper recessions in Continental Europe than in the Anglo-Saxon World. Moreover, our variance decomposition indicates that the conditional variance of economic activity related to only uncertainty shocks is much larger in Continental Europe. We associate these findings with country heterogeneity in labor and capital market flexibility, since firms are less capable to deal with uncertain situations when investment and hiring decisions are less easy to reverse, as suggested by Bloom (2009) and consistent with the findings of Bartelsman, Gautier, and de Wind (2016). Our empirical results are based on a structural Vector Autoregression with a similar specification as Bloom (2009).

Unequal We Stand
Unequal We Stand

Author: Jonathan Heathcote

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2010-10

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1437934919

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The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.