The United States has a problem – a big problem. Due to costs associated with the massive bailout of financial institutions deemed "too big to fail," on-going armed conflicts, and a move towards socialism, another even bigger bubble is about to burst – the debt bubble. The Great Super Cycle: Profit from the Coming Inflation Tidal Wave and Dollar Devaluation is an intriguing look at the relationship between Washington and Wall Street; the history of political shifts in power and how those shifts influenced the global economy; and, the ways investors can profit as economies move away from U.S. dollar and debt. The book: Discusses how a socialist America will result in the U.S. economy becoming far less competitive, while causing funds to move offshore Details how investors can profit by investing in gold, oil, and Asian markets Explains major cyclical movements from the mega cycle of world power to stock market cycles which last 10-20 years. As the United States begins to deal with its massive debt bubble, The Great Super Cycle just might prove the most powerful tool an investor has for making money in the turbulent years to come.
Greece isn't the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures. Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book: Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.
#1 New York Times Bestseller “Significant...The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving.” —The New York Times Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press.
Introduction -- The end of the commodity super-cycle -- Binding carbon constraints -- An electric future -- The US: the lucky country -- The Middle East: more trouble to come -- Russia: blighted by the resource curse -- China: the end of the transition -- Europe: not as bad as it seems -- The gradual end of big oil -- Energy utilities: a broken model -- The new energy markets and the economics of the Internet -- Conclusion
The identification of a 17-18 year stock market cycle is nothing new, but the author has discovered a stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years that he has extrapolated back over 100 years. He calls this cycle, rather modestly (and, after all, if has to be called something), the Balenthiran Cycle. This book deals with this subject.
PRAISE FOR THE LONG GOOD BUY: "Oppenheimer offers brilliant insights, sage advice and entertaining anecdotes. Anyone wishing to understand how financial markets behave – and misbehave – should read this book now." Stephen D. King, economist and author of Grave New World: The End of Globalisation, the Return of History "Peter has always been one of the masters of dissecting financial markets performance into an understandable narrative, and in this book, he pulls together much of his great thinking and style from his career, and it should be useful for anyone trying to understand what drives markets, especially equities." Lord Jim O'Neill, Chair, Chatham House "A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and long-term investment returns." Keith Skeoch, CEO, Standard Life Aberdeen "This book eloquently blends the author's vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be basic reading for any student of finance." Elias Papaioannou, Professor of Economics, London Business School "This is an excellent book, capturing the insights of a leading market practitioner within the structured analytical framework he has developed over many years. It offers a lively and unique perspective on how markets work and where they are headed." Huw Pill, Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School "The Long Good Buy is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes. It is lucidly written in a simple logical way, requires no mathematical expertise and draws on an amazing collection of historical data and research. For me it is the best and most comprehensive introduction to the subject that exists." Lord Brian Griffiths, Chairman - Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, Oxford
‘An in-depth but accessible analysis of the complex factors that impact structural changes in financial markets and investor opportunities.’ In Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets, celebrated author Peter C. Oppenheimer delivers his much-anticipated follow-up to The Long Good Buy. The book discusses how structural changes in macroeconomic drivers, geopolitics, government policy and social attitudes all combine to drive secular super cycles that help to explain investor returns. The author focuses on what he calls the Post-Modern Cycle, what it's likely to look like, how it will unfold and what investors should focus on. You'll also find: An introduction to the history of cycles and structural ‘Super Cycles’, and what has driven them. A detailed analysis of Super Cycles since 1945, including the Post-War Boom, the Great Moderation, the post Global Financial Crisis and Pandemic era. The specific drivers of the emerging Post-Modern Cycle amid a higher cost of capital, bigger governments, more proactive industrial policy, greater regulation, and less globalisation. Oppenheimer focuses on the developments in technology and AI, and on efforts to de-carbonise economies, and how these might impact financial market returns and opportunities. An invaluable resource for students of economic and financial history, and for investors, Any Happy Returns is essential reading for anyone seeking insights into upcoming market conditions and returns.
A time-tested guide to stock trading market cycles Published every year since 1968, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a practical investment tool with a wealth of information organized in calendar format. Everyone from well-known money managers to savvy traders and investors relies upon this annual resource for its in-depth analyses and insights. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2012 contains essential historical price information on the stock market, provides monthly and daily reminders, and highlights seasonal trading opportunities and dangers. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2012 is packed with timely insights and targeted analysis to help you navigate turbulent markets and beat the odds in the year ahead. This trusted guide combines over a century's worth of data, statistics, and trends along with vital analysis you won't get anywhere else. The 2012 edition includes a revision of the Seasonal Switching Strategy that significantly boosts returns as well as new information on the coming Super Boom. Other key seasonal and cyclical updates include pre-presidential election year cycles and perspectives, how the government manipulates the economy to stay in power, incumbent victories vs. incumbent defeats, and the market impact of the lame duck year. Alerts you to little-known market patterns and tendencies to help forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence An indispensable annual resource, trusted for over 40 years by traders and investors The data in the Almanac is some of the best in the business For its wealth of information and the authority of its sources, the Stock Trader's Almanac stands alone as the guide to intelligent investing.
Index-tracking is the flavour of the day - it accounts for around one-third of the total US mutual fund market, and is still growing rapidly. Indexing appears to be unstoppable. But, in The End of Indexing, investment veteran Niels Jensen presents a different vision. In a forthright and compelling examination of the investment landscape, Jensen argues that the economic environment we are entering will be unsuited to index-tracking strategies. Jensen identifies six structural mega-trends that are set to disrupt investors around the globe: 1. End of the debt super-cycle 2. Retirement of the baby boomers 3. Declining spending power of the middle classes 4. Rise of the East 5. Death of fossil fuels 6. Mean reversion of wealth-to-GDP In conjunction, these six themes have the potential to create conditions resembling a perfect storm that will result in low economic growth for decades to come. Investment techniques and methodologies - including passive investing strategies - that have worked so well in the bull market of the last 35 years will no longer deliver acceptable results. As a new investment approach is called for, The End of Indexing provides investors with a guide to the challenging environment ahead and a warning about the future decline of index-tracking.
