Resources, Financial Risk and the Dynamics of Growth
Resources, Financial Risk and the Dynamics of Growth

Author: Roberto Pasqualino

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 9781315643182

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"This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging from the interaction between economic growth and environmental limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03 Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits. The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case for a government led system change within this decade, where the market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural, ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and sustainable development"--

Dynamics of Disaster
Dynamics of Disaster

Author: Barbara Allen

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2013-09-13

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 1134073380

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Disasters are the result of complex interactions between social and natural forces, acting at multiple scales from the individual and community to the organisational, national and international level. Effective disaster planning, response and recovery require an understanding of these interacting forces, and the role of power, knowledge and organizations. This book sheds new light on these dynamics, and gives disaster scholars and practitioners new and valuable lessons for management and planning in practice. The authors draw on methods across the social sciences to examine disaster response and recovery as viewed by those in positions of authority and the 'recipients' of operations. These first two sections examine cases from Hurricane Katrina, while the third part compares this to other international disasters to draw out general lessons and practical applications for disaster planning in any context. The authors also offer guidance for shaping institutional structures to better meet the needs of communities and residents.

Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management
Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management

Author: Dmitry Ivanov

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-11-07

Total Pages: 332

ISBN-13: 3319693050

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This book offers an introduction to structural dynamics, ripple effect and resilience in supply chain disruption risk management for larger audiences. In the management section, without relying heavily on mathematical derivations, the book offers state-of-the-art concepts and methods to tackle supply chain disruption risks and designing resilient supply chains in a simple, predictable format to make it easy to understand for students and professionals with both management and engineering background. In the technical section, the book constitutes structural dynamics control methods for supply chain management. Real-life problems are modelled and solved with the help of mathematical programming, discrete-event simulation, optimal control theory, and fuzzy logic. The book derives practical recommendations for management decision-making with disruption risk in the following areas: How to estimate the impact of possible disruptions on performance in the pro-active stage? How to generate efficient and effective stabilization and recovery policies? When does one failure trigger an adjacent set of failures? Which supply chain structures are particular sensitive to ripple effect? How to measure the disruption risks in the supply chain?

Systemic Risk
Systemic Risk

Author: Prasanna Gai

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2013-03-28

Total Pages: 147

ISBN-13: 019165406X

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Systemic Risk opens new ground in the study of financial crises. It treats the financial system as a complex adaptive system and shows how lessons from network disciplines - such as ecology, epidemiology, and statistical mechanics - shed light on our understanding of financial stability. Using tools from network theory and economics, it suggests that financial systems are robust-yet-fragile, with knife-edge properties that are greatly exacerbated by the hoarding of funds and the fire sale of assets by banks. This book studies the damaging network consequences of the failure of large inter-connected institutions, explains how key funding markets can seize up across the entire financial system, and shows how the pursuit of secured finance by banks in the wake of the global financial crisis can generate systemic risks. The insights are then used to model banking systems calibrated to data to illustrate how financial sector regulators are beginning to quantify financial system stress.

Interest Rate Dynamics, Derivatives Pricing, and Risk Management
Interest Rate Dynamics, Derivatives Pricing, and Risk Management

Author: Lin Chen

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 364246825X

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There are two types of tenn structure models in the literature: the equilibrium models and the no-arbitrage models. And there are, correspondingly, two types of interest rate derivatives pricing fonnulas based on each type of model of the tenn structure. The no-arbitrage models are characterized by the work of Ho and Lee (1986), Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992), Hull and White (1990 and 1993), and Black, Dennan and Toy (1990). Ho and Lee (1986) invent the no-arbitrage approach to the tenn structure modeling in the sense that the model tenn structure can fit the initial (observed) tenn structure of interest rates. There are a number of disadvantages with their model. First, the model describes the whole volatility structure by a sin gle parameter, implying a number of unrealistic features. Furthennore, the model does not incorporate mean reversion. Black-Dennan-Toy (1990) develop a model along tbe lines of Ho and Lee. They eliminate some of the problems of Ho and Lee (1986) but create a new one: for a certain specification of the volatility function, the short rate can be mean-fteeting rather than mean-reverting. Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) (HJM) construct a family of continuous models of the term struc ture consistent with the initial tenn structure data.

Dynamics of Disasters
Dynamics of Disasters

Author: Ilias S. Kotsireas

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-03-09

Total Pages: 272

ISBN-13: 3030649733

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Based on the “Fourth International Conference on Dynamics of Disasters” (Kalamata, Greece, July 2019), this volume includes contributions from experts who share their latest discoveries on natural and unnatural disasters. Authors provide overviews of the tactical points involved in disaster relief, outlines of hurdles from mitigation and preparedness to response and recovery, and uses for mathematical models to describe natural and man-made disasters. Topics covered include economics, optimization, machine learning, government, management, business, humanities, engineering, medicine, mathematics, computer science, behavioral studies, emergency services, and environmental studies will engage readers from a wide variety of fields and backgrounds.

Group Dynamics for High-Risk Teams
Group Dynamics for High-Risk Teams

Author: Amy Fraher

Publisher:

Published: 2005-11

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780595377398

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This brief, readable book is designed to introduce a new team-building model called Team Resource Management (TRM) and serves as a guide for experiential learning events based on the Tavistock tradition. Using examples from popular culture and industry case studies, this Primer deepens understanding of group behavior by exploring the application of concepts such as leadership, management, authority, role, task, boundaries and teamwork in high-risk teams. Although all organizations have complex dynamics that influence performance, high-risk teams have unique characteristics. Yet, little research has been conducted about how high-risk groups manage teams under stress. This book fills this gap, exploring how professionals in high-risk fields can increase awareness of the dynamics of authority relations, the act of authorizing, and the interdependent nature of leadership, while learning how to manage anxiety in stressful situations.

Project Management with Dynamic Scheduling
Project Management with Dynamic Scheduling

Author: Mario Vanhoucke

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-11-29

Total Pages: 321

ISBN-13: 3642404383

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The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule’s risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project’s baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle. Consequently, a project schedule should especially be considered as nothing more than a predictive model that can be used for resource efficiency calculations, time and cost risk analyses, project tracking and performance measurement, and so on. In this book, the three dimensions of dynamic scheduling are highlighted in detail and are based on and inspired by a combination of academic research studies at Ghent University (www.ugent.be), in-company trainings at Vlerick Business School (www.vlerick.com) and consultancy projects at OR-AS (www.or-as.be). First, the construction of a project baseline schedule is a central theme throughout the various chapters of the book, and is discussed from a complexity point of view with and without the presence of project resources. Second, the creation of an awareness of the weak parts in a baseline schedule is discussed at the end of the two baseline scheduling parts as schedule risk analysis techniques that can be applied on top of the baseline schedule. Third, the baseline schedule and its risk analyses can be used as guidelines during the project control step where actual deviations can be corrected within the margins of the project’s time and cost reserves. The second edition of this book has seen corrections, additions and amendments in detail throughout the book. Moreover Chapter 15 on "Dynamic Scheduling with ProTrack" has been completely rewritten and extended with a section on "ProTrack as a research tool".

Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment
Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment

Author: Jana Sillmann

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2019-11-20

Total Pages: 378

ISBN-13: 0128148950

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Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience.