Leading Economic Indicators
Leading Economic Indicators

Author: Kajal Lahiri

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1991

Total Pages: 488

ISBN-13: 9780521438582

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

Business Cycle Indicators
Business Cycle Indicators

Author: Karl Heinrich Oppenländer

Publisher:

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13: 9781859724361

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.

An Index of Coincident Indicators for the Euro Area Based on Monthly and Quarterly Time Series
An Index of Coincident Indicators for the Euro Area Based on Monthly and Quarterly Time Series

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2003

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9789289468565

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The paper proposes a new coincident index of business cycle for the Euro Area. The methodology we follow extends the proposal by Mariano and Murasawa (2002), which moves from the Stock andWatson probability approach and combines a set of monthly indicators with the quarterly real GDP. Nevertheless, our set-up is formulated in the levels instead of first differences of the representative series, modelling the logarithms like the original proposals. In this respect, the non-linear state space form for the treatment of temporal aggregation is developed. The application is carried out first to the well known US dataset, comparing our results with the estimates coming from the original proposals and then to the Euro Area. For the latter we use the OECD database for the quarterly series of GDP and total employment, along with the monthly industrial production and retail sales indexes. Finally, for both the applications we derive a monthly estimate of GDP.

Business Cycles
Business Cycles

Author: Victor Zarnowitz

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 613

ISBN-13: 0226978923

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Construction of Coincident Indicators for the Euro Area
Construction of Coincident Indicators for the Euro Area

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 9789279607875

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The availability of timely and reliable information on main macroeconomic variables is considered both by policy makers and analysts as crucial for an effective process of decision making. Unfortunately official statistics cannot always meet adequately user needs. This is the reason why, using econometric techniques analysts try to anticipate or estimate in real time main macroeconomic movements. In this paper we compare several econometric models for the estimation of the period on period growth rate for the euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production Index (IPI). This comparison is made on the basis of real time results provided by these models over six years (2002-2007). Tests of absence of bias are performed and Diebold-Mariano tests help us to select among the models. The paper also presents a new indicator for euro area employment quarterly growth, which seems to perform rather well in the recent past, although this is still a preliminary assessment as we are only at an early stage of running the indicator.