Some Algebra of Fiscal Transparency
Some Algebra of Fiscal Transparency

Author: Timothy Irwin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-09-01

Total Pages: 19

ISBN-13: 1475510578

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Accounting devices that artificially reduce the measured fiscal deficit can be analyzed as transactions involving unrecognized assets and liabilities. Different accounting systems recognize different sets of assets and liabilities and are thus vulnerable to different sets of devices. Some devices can be revealed by moving progressively from cash accounting to modified accrual accounting to full accrual accounting. Revealing all would require the publication of extended fiscal accounts in which all future cash flows give rise to assets or liabilities.

Fiscal Transparency and the Performance of Government Financial Assets
Fiscal Transparency and the Performance of Government Financial Assets

Author: Mr.Mike Seiferling

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-01-22

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1484328353

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Stock-flow adjustments are typically measured as the difference between changes in gross debt and deficits. These are interpreted as a proxy for unexplained fiscal discrepancies, and often associated with a lack of fiscal transparency. However, such measures fail to capture the role of financial assets and valuation changes and therefore do not correctly predict fiscal transparency. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more detailed exposition of stock-flow residuals and the relationship with fiscal transparency, highlighting government acquisition of equities and investment fund shares and their performance in secondary markets. The results suggest that the performance of government equity portfolios correlates with fiscal transparency to the extent that fully transparent governments are expected to generate between 6 and 8 percent higher returns on their equity portfolios than others. These findings suggest that the performance of government assets may be a promising area for future research of fiscal transparency and stock-flow residuals.

Stock-Flow Adjustments, Government’s Integrated Balance Sheet and Fiscal Transparency
Stock-Flow Adjustments, Government’s Integrated Balance Sheet and Fiscal Transparency

Author: Mr.Mike Seiferling

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-03-07

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 147557035X

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This paper re-examines the stock-flow discrepancies of government debt and deficits and correlation with fiscal transparency. Applying the fully integrated relationship between financial stocks and flows allows for a more refined analysis of the deterministic components that make up the ‘stock-flow’ residual. Using partial measures of these stock-flow residuals, several empirical studies have found them to be significantly correlated with fiscaltransparency, inflation, fiscal rules, and banking crisis. Using fully integrated public finance data from the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook for a sample of 22 countries, the findings in this paper suggest that stock-flow residuals have a significantly smaller magnitude than previously assumed and are, in fact, not correlated with fiscal transparency. A stronger determinant of fiscal transparency scores appears to be the actual reporting of fiscal data covering general government, especially a full financial balance sheet.

Defining the Government’s Debt and Deficit
Defining the Government’s Debt and Deficit

Author: Mr.Timothy Irwin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-20

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 151354750X

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Although the budget deficit and the public debt feature prominently in political debate and economic research, there is no agreement about how they should be measured. They can be defined for different sets of public institutions, including the nested sets corresponding to central government, general government, and the public sector, and, for any definition of government, there are many measures of the debt and deficit, including those generated by four kinds of accounts (cash, financial, full accrual, and comprehensive), which can be derived from four nested sets of assets and liabilities. Each debt and deficit measure says something about public finances, but none tells the whole story. Each is also vulnerable to manipulation, and is likely to be manipulated if it is subject to a binding fiscal rule or target. Narrow definitions of government encourage the shifting of spending to entities outside the defined perimeter of government. Narrow definitions of debt and deficit encourage operations involving off-balance-sheets assets and liabilities, while broad measures are susceptible to the mismeasurement of on-balance-sheet assets and liabilities. Reviewing the literature on these issues, the paper concludes that governments should publish several measures of the debt and deficit in a form that clearly reveals their interrelationships.

A Collection of Surveys on Savings and Wealth Accumulation
A Collection of Surveys on Savings and Wealth Accumulation

Author: Edda Claus

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-05-02

Total Pages: 312

ISBN-13: 1119158389

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In this collection of critical surveys the reader is provided with a range of up-to-date work from some of the leading scholars in the area, writing on private and public sector aspects of savings and wealth accumulation. A survey of savings and wealth accumulation which are important dimensions of research and policy debates Discusses the measurement of genuine savings and sustainability, the estimation of wealth inequality, and recent developments in consumer credit and defaults Evaluates the impact of student loans on financial well-being, people’s retirement decisions, and the impact of pension reform Considers the distribution of wealth across generations and the importance of accurately measuring government debt, the rise of sovereign wealth funds and Islamic banking and finance

Dispelling Fiscal Illusions
Dispelling Fiscal Illusions

Author: Mr.Timothy Irwin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-21

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13: 1475552823

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When rights and obligations are not recognized as assets and liabilities on a government’s balance sheet, the government’s deficit can be reduced by selling off-balance-sheet assets or incurring off-balance-sheet liabilities. This paper examines how much progress has been made in recognizing assets and liabilities and thus dispelling the fiscal illusions that such transactions create. Looking at the accounts, government-finance statistics, and long-term fiscal projections produced in 28 advanced economies in the period since 2003, it finds good progress in the recognition of some assets and liabilities, such as accounts payable and simple financial assets, but much less in others, such as civil-service pensions.

The Political Economy of Fiscal Transparency and Independent Fiscal Councils
The Political Economy of Fiscal Transparency and Independent Fiscal Councils

Author: Mr.Roel M. W. J. Beetsma

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-09-01

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1484318390

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The global surge in independent fiscal councils (IFCs) raises three related questions: How can IFCs improve the conduct of fiscal policy? Are they simultaneously desirable for voters and elected policymakers? And are they resilient to changes in political conditions? We build a model in which voters cannot observe the true competence of elected policymakers. IFCs’ role is to mitigate this imperfection. Equilibrium public debt is excessive because policymakers are “partisan” and “opportunistic.” If voters only care about policymakers’ competence, both the incumbent and the voters would be better off with an IFC as the debt bias would shrink. However, when other considerations eclipse competence and give the incumbent a strong electoral advantage or disadvantage, setting up an IFC may be counterproductive as the debt bias would increase. If the incumbent holds a moderate electoral advantage or disadvantage, voters would prefer an IFC, but an incumbent with a large advantage may prefer not to have an IFC. The main policy implications are that (i) establishing an IFC can only lower the debt bias if voters care sufficiently about policymakers’ competence; (ii) not all political environments are conducive to the emergence of IFCs; and (iii) IFCs are consequently vulnerable to shifts in political conditions.

The Whole Elephant
The Whole Elephant

Author: Mr.Timothy Irwin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-12-10

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1513597493

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Although the budget deficit is much discussed in political debate and economic research, there is no agreement on how it should be measured. There are at least four options, which can be called the cash deficit, the financial deficit, the full-accrual deficit, and the comprehensive deficit. Each is informative, but each has problems of relevance or reliability. Some are more vulnerable to manipulation involving assets and liabilities that are unrecognized in the underlying accounting, others to manipulation involving the mismeasurement of recognized assets and liabilities. Governments should publish all four in a form that reveals their interrelationships.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2012
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2012

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-12-14

Total Pages: 14

ISBN-13: 1475540868

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The Research Summaries in the December 2012 IMF Research Bulletin look at "Market Failures and Macroprudential Policy" (Giovanni Favara and Lev Ratnovski) and "Measurement Matters for House Price Indices" (Mick Silver). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle." The Bulletin also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as a list of the top-viewed articles for the first three issues of IMF Economic Review in 2012. Information is also included on a call for papers for the conference "Asia: Challenges of Stability and Growth" to be held in Seoul in 2013.

Accounting Devices and Fiscal Illusions
Accounting Devices and Fiscal Illusions

Author: Timothy Irwin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-03-28

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1475571321

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This proposed SDN surveys the various accounting stratagems which governments have used to meet fiscal targets—thereby sidestepping the need for true adjustment—and suggests remedial actions to limit this type of fiscal non-transparency. Types of creative accounting covered includes, for instance, currency swaps to hide a debt build-up (as in Greece in 2001–07), sale and leaseback of government property (for example, in the United States), assumption of long-term pension obligations in exchange for short-term revenue (Argentina, Hungary, and other Eastern European countries), use of public-private partnerships to defer the recognition of investment spending (for instance, Portugal), and reliance on non-cash compensation (such as pension rights) to reduce measured wage bills (in the United States, United Kingdom, etc.) As is evident from the examples given, these fiscal tricks have recently come under increased international scrutiny, highlighting the importance of good fiscal reporting, accounting, and transparency in general, for avoiding unpleasant surprises, ensuring government accountability, and containing fiscal vulnerabilities.