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Author: Ken Langdon
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2012-08-15
Total Pages: 136
ISBN-13: 0857083813
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDecision trees or backing a hunch - smart advice on the art and science of decision making.
Author: John S. Hammond
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press
Published: 2015-08
Total Pages: 256
ISBN-13: 9781633691049
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWhere should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.
Author: Shane Parrish
Publisher: Penguin
Published: 2024-10-15
Total Pages: 209
ISBN-13: 0593719972
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDiscover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Author: Annie Duke
Publisher: Penguin
Published: 2019-05-07
Total Pages: 289
ISBN-13: 0735216371
DOWNLOAD EBOOKA Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Author: Annie Duke
Publisher: Penguin
Published: 2020-10-13
Total Pages: 290
ISBN-13: 0593418484
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThrough a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
Author: Jonathan Yudelowitz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2005-01-14
Total Pages: 196
ISBN-13: 184112625X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSmart Leadership provides a completely up to date overview of thecurrent thinking on leadership. It outlines the latest theories andprinciples you need to apply to be a successful leader and includestips and wisdom from the greatest business thinkers andwriters. Smart books are essential primers to the key issues facing businesspeople. They are practical and action-oriented, providing instantknowledge for ambitious and hungry professionals who want to make alasting impression throughout their career. Smart books aredesigned to give killer approaches to key business subjects, anddeliver sound principles in a style that is both informative andhas attitude. They are the prefect resource for time-starved,information-hungry business people everywhere!
Author: James Leibert
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2005-01-14
Total Pages: 300
ISBN-13: 1841126225
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSmart Business is the definitive primer for understanding why companies behave as they do, what the basics of sound business practice are and where the stakeholders fit in. There are a handful of fairly simple but key drivers behind the way businesses operate and James Leibert explains them. Smart Business will enable readers to fast track their business skills. Smart books are essential primers to the key issues facing business people. They are practical and action-oriented, providing instant knowledge for ambitious and hungry professionals who want to make a lasting impression throughout their career. Smart books are designed to give killer approaches to key business subjects, and deliver sound principles in a style that is both informative and has attitude. They are the prefect resource for time-starved, information-hungry business people everywhere!
Author: Morris Altman
Publisher: Academic Press
Published: 2020-05-22
Total Pages: 302
ISBN-13: 0128131780
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSmart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality. - Makes the case for 'smart and rational' decision-making as a context-dependent rational process that is framed by socio-cultural environment and conditioned by institutional capacities - Explains how incorporation of the 'smart' decision-maker concept into economic thought improves our understanding of how, why and when people generate certain outcomes - Explores how economic efficiency can be achieved, individual preferences realized, and social welfare maximized through the use of 'smart and rational' approaches
Author: Zachary Shore
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Published: 2010-07-15
Total Pages: 270
ISBN-13: 1608192547
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFor anyone whose best-laid plans have been foiled by faulty thinking, Blunder reveals how understanding seven simple traps-Exposure Anxiety, Causefusion, Flat View, Cure-Allism, Infomania, Mirror Imaging, Static Cling-can make us all less apt to err in our daily lives.
Author: Paula Prober
Publisher: Editeurs divers USA
Published: 2016-06-20
Total Pages: 194
ISBN-13: 9780692713105
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDo you long to drive a Ferrari at top speed on the open road, but find yourself always stuck on the freeway during rush hour? Do you wonder how you can feel like "not enough" and "too much" at the same time? Like the rain forest, are you sometimes intense, multilayered, colorful, creative, overwhelming, highly sensitive, complex, and/or idealistic? And, like the rain forest, have you met too many chainsaws?Enter Paula Prober, M.S., M.Ed., who understands the diversity and complexity of minds like yours. In "Your Rainforest Mind: A Guide to the Well-Being of Gifted Youths and Adults," Paula explores the challenges faced by gifted adults of all ages. Through case studies and extensive research, Paula will help you tap into your inner creativity, find peace, and discover the limitless potential that comes with your Rainforest Mind.
