Spawner-recruit Analyses and Escapement Goal Recommendations for Kenai River Chinook Salmon

Spawner-recruit Analyses and Escapement Goal Recommendations for Kenai River Chinook Salmon

Author: Steven J. Fleischman

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13:

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Age-structured state-space spawner-recruit models were fit to 1986-2015 data on abundance, harvest, and age composition for early and late runs of Kenai River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), 75 cm mid eye to tail fork (METF) and longer. Historical annual run abundance, stock recruitment parameters, and fishery management reference points were estimated from these models. Sustainable Escapement Goals of 2,800-5,600 (early run) and 13,500-27,000 (late run) Chinook salmon 75 cm METF and longer are recommended, and their attributes and limitations discussed. Fish 75 cm METF (approximately 33.3 in total length) and longer can be assessed directly by imaging sonar in the Kenai River at river mile 13.7.


Run Reconstruction, Spawner-recruit Analysis, and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Chinook Salmon in the Copper River

Run Reconstruction, Spawner-recruit Analysis, and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Chinook Salmon in the Copper River

Author: James William Savereide

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13:

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An age-structured state-space spawner–recruit model was fit to estimates of relative and absolute abundance, harvest, and age composition for Copper River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from 1980 to 2016. Bayesian statistical methods were employed to assess uncertainty in the presence of measurement error, serial correlation, and missing data. Ricker stock-recruit parameters and management reference points were estimated, including the escapement that provides for maximum sustained yield (SMSY). It is recommended that a sustainable escapement goal range of 18,500 to 33,000 fish be adopted for Copper River Chinook salmon. Escapement is evaluated by subtracting estimates of inriver harvest from estimates of inriver abundance. Escapements within this range have a high probability of producing sustainable yields.


Spawner-recruit Analysis and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Kenai River Late-run Sockeye Salmon

Spawner-recruit Analysis and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Kenai River Late-run Sockeye Salmon

Author: James J. Hasbrouck

Publisher:

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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The current sustainable escapement goal (700,000–1,200,000) for Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon was established in 2011. For this escapement goal review, the escapement time series and production data were updated through 2018. The fit of 6 spawner–recruit models to data from brood years 1968–2012 and brood years 1979–2012 was examined. Although the classic Ricker model was determined the most appropriate to use given the data, all brood years were estimated to have replaced themselves, which compromised obtaining accurate and precise estimates of most model parameter estimates and biological reference points, including a scientifically defensible estimate of maximum sustained yield. Markov-type yield tables were constructed to evaluate yields at different levels of escapement. We recommend the sustainable escapement goal for Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon be revised to 750,000–1,300,000 fish because the analyses indicated escapements in this range will likely provide better yields.


Run Reconstruction, Spawner-recruit Analysis, and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Summer Chum Salmon in the East Fork of the Andreafsky River

Run Reconstruction, Spawner-recruit Analysis, and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Summer Chum Salmon in the East Fork of the Andreafsky River

Author: Steven J. Fleischman

Publisher:

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13:

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Historical abundance of Andreafsky River, Anvik River, and aggregated other upriver stocks of summer chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta was reconstructed from mixed stock harvest data and incomplete sonar, weir, counting tower, and aerial survey data of varying precision from 1972 to 2007. The resulting estimates of escapement and harvest of East Fork Andreafsky River chum salmon were fitted to an age-structured Ricker spawner-recruit model. Bayesian statistical methods were employed, which allowed for realistic assessment of uncertainty in the presence of measurement error, serial correlation, and missing data.


Spawner-recruit Analysis and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Chinook Salmon in the Kuskokwim River Drainage

Spawner-recruit Analysis and Escapement Goal Recommendation for Chinook Salmon in the Kuskokwim River Drainage

Author: Toshihide Hamazaki

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13:

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The objectives of this report are to: 1) describe the productivity and capacity of the Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon stock, as quantified from stock-recruit analyses, 2) recommend a drainage-wide escapement goal based on this information, and 3) revise escapement goals for selected tributaries.


Quantitative Fish Dynamics

Quantitative Fish Dynamics

Author: Terrance J. Quinn

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 561

ISBN-13: 0195076311

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The fields of fish population dynamics and stock assessment have seen major advances in the 1980s and 1990s, creating the need for a new synthesis. This text attempts that synthesis by presenting a contemporary approach for quantitative fisheries science that incorporates modern statistical and mathematical techniques. It emphasizes the link between biology and theory by explaining the assumptions inherent in the quantitative methods and models. The book covers key topics that are often overlooked in other texts, such as optimal harvesting, migratory stocks, and complex age and size-structured models. Quantitative Fish Dynamics is an ideal textbook for graduate and undergraduate courses in fish population dynamics and stock assessment. It is an indispensable reference work for fisheries scientists and others interested in conservation biology, fish and wildlife management, population ecology, and statistical applications.


Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, Third Edition

Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, Third Edition

Author: Bradley P. Carlin

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2008-06-30

Total Pages: 552

ISBN-13: 9781584886983

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Broadening its scope to nonstatisticians, Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, Third Edition provides an accessible introduction to the foundations and applications of Bayesian analysis. Along with a complete reorganization of the material, this edition concentrates more on hierarchical Bayesian modeling as implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and related data analytic techniques. New to the Third Edition New data examples, corresponding R and WinBUGS code, and homework problems Explicit descriptions and illustrations of hierarchical modeling—now commonplace in Bayesian data analysis A new chapter on Bayesian design that emphasizes Bayesian clinical trials A completely revised and expanded section on ranking and histogram estimation A new case study on infectious disease modeling and the 1918 flu epidemic A solutions manual for qualifying instructors that contains solutions, computer code, and associated output for every homework problem—available both electronically and in print Ideal for Anyone Performing Statistical Analyses Focusing on applications from biostatistics, epidemiology, and medicine, this text builds on the popularity of its predecessors by making it suitable for even more practitioners and students.