On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method
On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method

Author: Mr.Tommaso Di Fonzo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-06-01

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 1475505175

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Statistical offices have often recourse to benchmarking methods for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA). Benchmarking methods employ quarterly indicator series (i) to distribute annual, more reliable series of national accounts and (ii) to extrapolate the most recent quarters not yet covered by annual benchmarks. The Proportional First Differences (PFD) benchmarking method proposed by Denton (1971) is a widely used solution for distribution, but in extrapolation it may suffer when the movements in the indicator series do not match consistently the movements in the target annual benchmarks. For this reason, an enhanced formula for extrapolation was recommended by the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (2001). We discuss the rationale behind this technique, and propose a matrix formulation of it. In addition, we present applications of the enhanced formula to artificial and real-life benchmarking examples showing how the extrapolations for the most recent quarters can be improved.

Quarterly National Accounts Manual
Quarterly National Accounts Manual

Author: Mr.Adriaan M. Bloem

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2001-05-10

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 9781589060319

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This Manual provides guidance to compilers of national accounts on the concepts, data sources, and compilation methods required for development of a system of quarterly national accounts. More and more countries are recognizing that quarterly national accounts are an essential tool for management and analysis of their economy. The Manual is intended particularly for compilers who already have a knowledge of annual national accounting concepts and methods, and provides techniques for the development of a consistent time series of annual and quarterly accounts. It serves as acomplement to the System of National Accounts 1993, which has only a limited discussion of quarterly accounts, and will also prove useful as a tool for sophisticated users of quarterly national accounts.

Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators
Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators

Author: Mr.Marco Marini

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-03-23

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1475547943

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Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or “nowcast”) low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series.

Benchmarking, Temporal Distribution, and Reconciliation Methods for Time Series
Benchmarking, Temporal Distribution, and Reconciliation Methods for Time Series

Author: Estela Bee Dagum

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-09-23

Total Pages: 418

ISBN-13: 0387354395

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Time series play a crucial role in modern economies at all levels of activity and are used by decision makers to plan for a better future. Before publication time series are subject to statistical adjustments and this is the first statistical book to systematically deal with the methods most often applied for such adjustments. Regression-based models are emphasized because of their clarity, ease of application, and superior results. Each topic is illustrated with real case examples. In order to facilitate understanding of their properties and limitations of the methods discussed a real data example is followed throughout the book.

Quarterly National Accounts Manual (2017 Edition)
Quarterly National Accounts Manual (2017 Edition)

Author: Mr.Kwangwon Lee

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-11-06

Total Pages: 598

ISBN-13: 1484355016

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The Quarterly National Accounts Manual (the Manual) provides conceptual and practical guidance for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA) statistics. The Manual offers a comprehensive review of data sources, statistical methods, and compilation techniques to derive official estimates of quarterly GDP. The new edition—which upgrades the first edition, published in 2001—improves and expands the previous content based on recent methodological advances, best country practices, and suggestions received from QNA compilers and experts.

Japan
Japan

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-03-17

Total Pages: 219

ISBN-13: 1451820666

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The Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes data module provides an assessment of Japan’s macroeconomic statistics against the Special Data Dissemination Standard, complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework, July 2003 version. The assessment reveals that the data-producing agencies in Japan adhere to the principle of objectivity in the collection, processing, and dissemination of statistics. They demonstrate professionalism and are transparent in their policies and practices. Data are protected by strict measures of confidentiality throughout the data-producing agencies.

New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics
New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics

Author: Mr.Marco Marini

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-01-24

Total Pages: 57

ISBN-13: 148433910X

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In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

Shifting the Beveridge Curve
Shifting the Beveridge Curve

Author: Ms.Elva Bova

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-12

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 148433695X

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This paper explores conditions and policies that could affect the matching between labor demand and supply. We identify shifts in the Beveridge curves for 12 OECD countries between 2000Q1 and 2013Q4 using three complementary methodologies and analyze the short-run determinants of these shifts by means of limited-dependent variable models. We find that labor force growth as well as employment protection legislation reduce the likelihood of an outward shift in the Beveridge curve,. Our findings also show that the matching process is more difficult the higher the share of employees with intermediate levels of education in the labor force and when long-term unemployment is more pronounced. Policies which could facilitate labor market matching include active labor market policies, such as incentives for start-up and job sharing programs. Passive labor market policies, such as unemployment benefits, as well as labor taxation render matching signficantly more difficult.

Fiscal Spillovers
Fiscal Spillovers

Author: Patrick Blagrave

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-10-18

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1484352416

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Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-border impact of fiscal policy on economic activity, shedding light on the magnitude and the factors affecting transmission, such as the fiscal instruments used, cyclical positions, monetary policy conditions, and exchange rate regimes. The note assesses spillovers from five major advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) on 55 advanced and emerging market economies that represent 85 percent of global output, looking at government-spending and tax revenue shocks during expansion and consolidation episodes. It finds that fiscal spillovers are economically significant in the presence of slack and/or accommodative monetary policy—and considerably smaller otherwise, which suggests that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large. It also finds that spillovers from government-spending shocks are larger and more persistent than those from tax shocks and that transmission may be stronger among countries with fixed exchange rates. The evidence suggests that although spillovers from fiscal policies in the current environment may not be as large as they were during the crisis, they may still be important under certain economic circumstances.