The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-11-12

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1616356154

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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.


Oil Prices and Consumer Spending

Oil Prices and Consumer Spending

Author: Yash P. Mehra

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2008-10

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 143790498X

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Empirical evidence suggests that oil price increases have a negative effect on spending whereas oil price declines have no effect. The estimated negative effect of an oil price increase on spending is larger if we focus on oil price increases that occur after a period of stable oil prices (net oil price increases), or if spending includes durables, the latter suggesting the possible negative influence of energy prices on the purchase of big-ticket consumption goods. Furthermore, the estimated oil price coefficients in the consumption equation do not show parameter instability during the 1980s, the period when oil prices moved widely for the first time in both directions. Charts and tables.


Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Author: Mr.Aasim M. Husain

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-07-14

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 151357227X

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The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.


Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-01-27

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1475572360

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This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.


The Great Inflation

The Great Inflation

Author: Michael D. Bordo

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2013-06-28

Total Pages: 545

ISBN-13: 0226066959

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Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.


Oil Price Uncertainty

Oil Price Uncertainty

Author: Apostolos Serletis

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 142

ISBN-13: 9789814390675

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The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.


International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

Author: Jordi Galí

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2010-03-15

Total Pages: 663

ISBN-13: 0226278875

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United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.


The Oil Kings

The Oil Kings

Author: Andrew Scott Cooper

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2012-09-11

Total Pages: 544

ISBN-13: 1439155186

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Relying on a rich cache of previously classified notes, transcripts, cables, policy briefs, and memoranda, Andrew Cooper explains how oil drove, even corrupted, American foreign policy during a time when Cold War imperatives still applied, and tells why in the 1970s the U.S. switched its Middle East allegiance from the Shah of Iran to the Saudi royal family. Amid the oil shocks of the early 1970s, there was one man the U.S. could rely on: the Shah of Iran. The Shah sold us oil; we sold him weapons. But the U.S. and other industrialized economies could not tolerate repeated annual double digit increases in oil prices. During the 1976 election campaign, President Gerald Ford decided that he had to find a country that would break the OPEC monopoly and sell the U.S. oil more cheaply. On the advice of Treasury Secretary William Simon -- and against the advice of Secretary of State Henry Kissinger -- Ford made a deal to sell advanced weaponry to the Saudis in exchange for a more moderate price hike in oil. The Shah's economy was destabilized, and disaffected elements mobilized to overthrow him. The U.S. had embarked on a long relationship with the autocratic Saudi kingdom that continues to this day.


Reducing Gasoline Consumption

Reducing Gasoline Consumption

Author: Terry Dinan

Publisher: Nova Biomedical Books

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 86

ISBN-13:

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Several Members of Congress and public interest groups have recently proposed policies that would reduce gasoline consumption in the United States. Such proposals stem primarily from a desire to enhance the nation's energy security and to decrease its emissions of carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that affects the Earth's climate. This book compares three methods of reducing gasoline consumption: increasing the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards that govern passenger vehicles, raising the federal tax on gasoline, and setting a limit on carbon emissions from gasoline combustion and requiring gasoline producers to hold allowances for those emissions (a policy known as a cap-and-trade program). Also, the book weighs the relative merits of those policies against several major criteria: whether they would minimise costs to producers and consumers; how reliably they would achieve a given reduction in gasoline use; their implications for automobile safety; and their effects on such factors as traffic congestion, requirements for highway construction, and emissions of air pollutants other than carbon dioxide. In addition, the book examines two more policy implications that lawmakers may be concerned about: the impact on people at different income levels and in different regions, and the effects on federal revenue.