The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
The United States'' relationship with Saudi Arabia has been one of the cornerstones of U.S. policy in the Middle East for decades. Despite their substantial differences in history, culture, and governance, the two countries have generally agreed on important political and economic issues and have often relied on each other to secure mutual aims. The 1990-91 Gulf War is perhaps the most obvious example, but their ongoing cooperation on maintaining regional stability, moderating the global oil market, and pursuing terrorists should not be downplayed. Yet for all the relationship''s importance, it is increasingly imperiled by mistrust and misunderstanding. One major question is Saudi Arabia''s stability. In this Council Special Report, sponsored by the Center for Preventive Action, F. Gregory Gause III first explores the foundations of Riyadh''s present stability and potential sources of future unrest. It is difficult not to notice that Saudi Arabia avoided significant upheaval during the political uprisings that swept the Middle East in 2011, despite sharing many of the social and economic problems of Egypt, Yemen, and Libya. But unlike their counterparts in Cairo, Sanaa, and Tripoli, Riyadh''s leadership was able to maintain order in large part by increasing public spending on housing and salaries, relying on loyal and well-equipped security forces, and utilizing its extensive patronage networks. The divisions within the political opposition also helped the government''s cause. This is not to say that Gause believes that the stability of the House of Saud is assured. He points out that the top heirs to the throne are elderly and the potential for disorderly squabbling may increase as a new generation enters the line of succession. Moreover, the population is growing quickly, and there is little reason to believe that oil will forever be able to buy social tranquility. Perhaps most important, Gause argues, the leadership''s response to the 2011 uprisings did little to forestall future crises; an opportunity for manageable political reform was mostly lost. Turning to the regional situation, Gause finds it no less complex. Saudi Arabia has wielded considerable influence with its neighbors through its vast oil reserves, its quiet financial and political support for allies, and the ideological influence of salafism, the austere interpretation of Islam that is perhaps Riyadh''s most controversial export. For all its wealth and religious influence, however, Saudi Arabia''s recent record has been less than successful. It was unable to counter Iranian influence in post-Saddam Iraq, it could not prevent Hezbollah taking power in Lebanon, and its ongoing efforts to reconcile Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have come to naught. The U.S.-Saudi relationship has, unsurprisingly, been affected by these and other challenges, including Saudi unhappiness with Washington''s decision to distance itself from Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, the lack of progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and Iran. For its part, the United States is unhappy with the Saudi intervention in Bahrain and Saudi support for radical Islamists around the region and the world. The two traditional anchors of the U.S.-Saudi relationship-the Cold War and U.S. operation of Riyadh''s oil fields-are, Gause notes, no longer factors. It is no wonder, he contends, that the relationship is strained when problems are myriad and the old foundations of the informal alliance are gone. It would be far better, Gause argues, to acknowledge that the two countries can no longer expect to act in close concert under such conditions. He recommends that the United States reimagine the relationship as simply transactional, based on cooperation when interests-rather than habit-dictate. Prioritizing those interests will therefore be critical. Rather than pressuring Riyadh for domestic political reform, or asking it to reduce global oil prices, Gause recommends that the United States spend its political capital where it really matters: on maintaining regional security, dismantling terrorist networks, and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. There have been few relationships more important to the United States than that with Saudi Arabia, and it is vital that, as it enters a new phase, the expectations and priorities of both countries are clear. In Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East, Gause effectively assesses the challenges and opportunities facing Saudi Arabia and makes a compelling argument for a more modest, businesslike relationship between Washington and Riyadh that better reflects modern realities. As the United States begins reassessing its commitments in the Greater Middle East, this report offers a clear vision for a more limited-but perhaps more appropriate and sustainable-future partnership.
A study of the Arab economic boycott of Israel. This title includes the evolution and development of the boycott, and examines aspects such as theory, practice and legality of the longest-lasting example of economic sanctions in the 20th century.
"The late-summer headlines of a landmark peace accord between the government of Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization stunned and delighted citizens of conscience from every walk of life and from all over the world. Here, at last, were the first glimmerings of harmony for a region whose bloody, intractable conflicts between Arab and Jew had outlived hot and cold wars alike to become an inescapable, insoluble fact of life in our modern age." "Many men and women of peace and vision worked together to bring about this epoch-making accord, but none played a more prominent and crucial role than Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, and former Prime Minister, Shimon Peres. Using both behind-the-scenes statecraft and the very public platform of the international media, Peres has called for nothing less than a total transvaluation of our thinking about the future of the Middle East. Peace, he has argued eloquently, is the only alternative for Jews and Arabs poised on the verge of a new century, and a new millennium. Peace will come only as the result of compromise. Peace is the only way to prevent posterity from making the same terrible mistakes of preceding generations." "In The New Middle East Peres offers a compelling vision of the future for his region. He sees a reconstructed Middle East, free of the conflicts that plagued it in the past, set to take its place in a new era - an era that will not tolerate backwardness or ignorance. He sees a social revival, and an economic revival as well - one fueled by the billions upon billions of dollars wasted for decades on defense. But crucially, he is not fixated only on what might be. He offers a no less cogent analysis of how peace can be achieved. He seeks nothing short of a historic new chapter between two peoples: to end a hundred years of hostility, and to begin a hundred years of peace and understanding." "The New Middle East is a blueprint for the dawning of a new age. A visionary manifesto of current events no one can afford to ignore, it also may become one of the enduring political documents of our time."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Markus Bouillon's book makes an important and original contribution to the literature on the Middle East peace process. It is based on extensive and imaginative research and it is packed with new and fascinating material. Bouillon places the behaviour of the elites under an uncompromising lens. His work serves as a useful corrective to the conventional wisdom by highlighting the negative effects of the peace process for all but the elites in Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. Avi Shlaim, Oxford University. "The first full-length, authoritative account of the various dimensions of business in the context of Arab-Israeli peace. ... an empirically dense and nuanced analysis" James Piscatori, Oxford University
The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) diplomatic engagement with the Middle East spans multiple dimensions, including trade and investment, the energy sector, and military cooperation. Connecting China through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean and Europe, the Middle East is a unique geostrategic location for Beijing, a critical source of energy resources, and an area of expanding economic ties. The Middle East geographical and political area is subject to different country inclusion interpretations that have changed over time and reflect complex and multifaceted circumstances involving conflict, religion, ethnicity, and language. China considers most Arab League member countries (as well as Israel, Turkey, and Iran) as representing the Middle East. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and official Chinese publications refer to this region as Xiya beifei (West Asia and North Africa). China sees the Middle East as an intrinsic part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and has ramped up investment in the region accordingly, focusing on energy (including nuclear power), infrastructure construction, agriculture, and finance. This book uses the BRI as a framework for analyzing ChinaMiddle East relations, with special emphasis on the PRCs strategic partnerships via regional mutual interdependency in various sectors such as energy, infrastructure building, political ties, trade and investment, financial integration, people to people bonding, and defense. A stable Middle East region is vital for Chinas sustainable growth and continued prosperity. As the worlds largest oil consumer with an ambition to expand its economic and political influence, the Middle Easts geostrategic location and holder of most of the worlds known energy resources make it indispensable to the success of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The paper analyzes the scope and implications of greater economic integration in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). After reviewing whether MENA satisfies the defining characteristics of a region, it documents the low level of regional economic interaction. It argues that gains from greater regional interactions will depend primarily on implementing domestic reform and external policies that, in any case, are needed for the region to benefit from the broader process of globalization of the world economy. It also discusses measures aimed directly at facilitating regional interaction.
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
