Modeling the Cumulative Impact of Change Orders
Modeling the Cumulative Impact of Change Orders

Author: Karim Ashraf Sabry Iskandar

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Change orders occur in almost every construction project and regularly cause variations to the contractors' anticipated working conditions, resources, and manner of work completion. Change orders are major source of additional congestion, change in sequence, and loss of momentum in the construction jobsite. They frequently cause unforeseen labor productivity loss, which forces contractors to extend their stays on projects. Contractors encounter a lot of resistance from owners when proving productivity loss attributable to change orders, which may lead to unresolved disputes and lengthy litigations. Previous researchers attempted to set standards and methods in order to quantify the cumulative impact of changes on labor productivity. Some of the previous studies were based on case studies of two or three projects, others included a larger number of projects and more reliable analysis. Generally, it is very difficult to conclusively determine the exact amount of productivity loss attributable to change orders. As a result, there is a continuous need to enhance and enrich the cumulative impact research field. This current research is based on a database of one hundred and forty-five mechanical and electrical projects, encompassing two project groups: projects impacted by changes, and projects unimpacted by changes. Using two-sample t-tests and Chi-squared tests, a series of numerical and categorical variables were found to be significant in distinguishing between impacted and unimpacted projects, thus revealing the underlying causes of productivity loss associated with change orders. Furthermore, sixty-eight impacted projects were used in order to quantify the cumulative impact of changes using linear regression analysis. A series of statistical model selection criteria were applied in order to carefully identify the best predictive models. Candidate models were statistically diagnosed and thoroughly tested to check their validity. Statistical tests and measures were used in order to check whether there are outlying or influential observations in the models. In addition to that, new projects were collected to verify the future predictive ability of the candidate models. The analysis identified the following six factors as best cumulative impact predictors: percent owner initiated change orders, overmanning, turnover, absenteeism, percent time spent by project manager on project, and productivity tracking. The models developed in this research provide the construction industry with means that could be used during dispute resolutions to support the contractors' calculations and assertions for cumulative impact claims. Finally, this study incorporates a significant statistical component that highlights the most common challenges that analysts face when building linear regression models, such as multicollinearity and the presence of hidden extrapolations. The models developed in this research were extensively analyzed in full details through various statistical tests and measures in order to avoid misleading and deceptive results.

Modeling Productivity Losses Due to Change Orders
Modeling Productivity Losses Due to Change Orders

Author: Ali Emamifar

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Change orders are an integral part of construction projects regardless of project size or complexity. Changes may cause interruption to the unchanged scope of work and working conditions and, if poorly managed, may be detrimental to project success. Many studies have been carried out to quantify the impact of change orders on construction labour productivity, with varying degrees of accuracy and variables considered. These studies reveal that quantifying loss of productivity due to change orders is not an easy task and requires a comprehensive and holistic method. There are several methods for quantifying loss of productivity, such as measured mile analysis (MMA) and the total cost method (TCM). Although measured mile analysis (MMA) is a well-known and widely accepted method for quantifying the cumulative impact of change orders on labour productivity, it is not readily applicable to many cases. In this research two models were developed to quantify losses arising from change orders. The first model does not account for the timing of change orders, but the second model considers the timing of change orders on labour productivity. Two models were developed and tested utilizing artificial neural networks and two sets of data collected by others in that field. The two datasets were statistically analyzed and preprocessed in order to transfer the data to normal distribution form and eliminate insignificant variables considered in their development. Using best subset regression, a total of seventeen variables were reduced to nine variables accordingly. Also, the study datasets were categorized into three types of timing periods; early change, normal change and late change to create the timing model. This was implemented to enable a comparison with models developed by others. Three types of artificial neural network techniques were experimented with and evaluated for possible use in the developed models. These three types are Feed Forward Neural Network, Cascade Neural Network, and Generalized Regression Neural Network. Candidate techniques were evaluated and analyzed by neural network parameters and analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select the most efficient type of neural networks, and subsequently using it to develop two models; one considers timing and the second does not. The analysis performed led to the selection of the cascade neural network for the development of the two models productivity losses due to change orders. The developed models were tested and validated utilizing several actual cases reported by others. The models were applied to a number of cases and the results were compared to those generated by frequently cited models to demonstrate their accuracy. The comparison outcome showed that the developed models can generate more accurate and satisfactory results than those of reported in previous studies.

Quantifying the Impact of Change Orders on Construction Labor Productivity Using System Dynamics
Quantifying the Impact of Change Orders on Construction Labor Productivity Using System Dynamics

Author: Sasan Golnaraghi

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Researchers and industry practitioners agree that changes are unavoidable in construction projects and may become troublesome if poorly managed. One of the root causes of sub-optimal productivity in construction projects is the number and impact of changes introduced to the initial scope of work during the course of project execution. In labor-intensive construction projects, labor costs represent a substantial percentage of the total project budget. Understanding labor productivity is essential to project success. If productivity is impacted by any reasons such as extensive changes or poor managerial policies, labor costs will increase over and above planned cost. The true challenge of change management is having a comprehensive understanding of change impacts and how these impacts can be reduced or prevented before they cascade forming serious problems. This thesis proposes a change management framework that project teams can use to quantify labor productivity losses due to change orders and managerial policies across all phases of construction projects. The proposed framework has three models; fuzzy risk-based change management, AI baseline-productivity estimating, and system dynamics to illustrate cause-impact relationships. These models were developed in five stages. In the first stage, the fuzzy risk-based change management (FRCM) model was developed to prioritize change orders in a way that only essential change orders can be targeted. In this stage, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) and Hierarchical Fuzzy Inference System are utilized to calculate relative weights of the factors considered and generate a score for each contemplated change. In the second stage, baseline productivity model was developed considering a set of environmental and operational variables. In this step, various techniques were used including Stepwise, Best Subset, Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR), General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in order to compare results and choose the best method for producing that estimate. The selected method was then used in the development of a novel AI model for estimating labor productivity. The developed AI model is based on Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) after enhancing it by raw dataset preprocessing and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to extract significant dataset features for better generalization. The model, named PSO-RBFNN, was selected over other techniques based on its statistical performance and was used to estimate the baseline productivity values used as the initial value in the developed system dynamics (SD) model. In the fourth stage, a novel SD model was developed to examine the impact of change orders and different managerial decisions in response to imposed change orders on the expected productivity during the lifecycle of a project. In other words, the SD model is used to quantify the impact of change orders and related managerial decisions on excepted productivity. The SD model boundary was defined by clustering key variables into three categories: exogenous, endogenous, and excluded. The relationships among these key variables were extracted from the literature and experts in this domain. A holistic causal loop diagram was then developed to illustrate the interaction among various variables. In the final stage, the developed computational framework and its models were verified and validated through a real case study and the results show that the developed SD model addresses various consequences derived from a change in combination with the major environmental and operational variables of the project. It allows for the identification and quantification of the cumulative impact of change orders on labor productivity in a timely manner to facilitate the decision-making process. The developed framework can be used during the development and execution phases of a project. The findings are expected to enhance the assessment of change orders, facilitate the quantification of productivity losses in construction projects, and help to perform critical analysis of the impact of various scope change internal and external variables on project time and cost.

The Impact of Change Orders on Mechanical Construction Labor Efficiency
The Impact of Change Orders on Mechanical Construction Labor Efficiency

Author: Paul Joseph Vandenberg

Publisher:

Published: 1996

Total Pages: 236

ISBN-13:

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Change orders impact many areas of construction projects. However, the impacts that change orders have on labor efficiency are much harder to quantify and are, therefore, a significant risk to contractors. Little research has been completed in the past quantifying these impacts so that disputes are common between owners and contractors regarding the actual cost of change. This study uses data from 43 projects, 27 impacted by changes and 16 not impacted by changes, to develop a linear regression model that predicts the impact on labor efficiency. The input factors needed for the model are: (1) Total Actual Project Hours, (2) Total Estimated Change Hours, (3) Impact Classification, and (4) Timing of Change. Timing of Change is calculated by breaking the project schedule down into six periods (i.e., changes before construction start, 0 - 20%, 20 - 40%, 40 - 60%A, 60 - 80%, and 80 - 100%), listing the percentage of change that occurred in each period, and calculating a weighted timing factor. The model calculates the labor loss or gain in efficiency for a particular project so that owners and contractors will better understand the true change impact on labor efficiency. Significant results have been found in hypothesis testing. The results show that impacted projects have larger amounts of change, have a larger decrease in labor efficiency, and are more impacted by change that occurs later in the project schedule. These results appear to be consistent with the intuitive judgement of industry professionals. The research is limited to the mechanical trade, but does include specific work in plumbing, HVAC, process piping, and fire protection.

Cumulative Impact of Multiple Change Orders in the Management of Change Process
Cumulative Impact of Multiple Change Orders in the Management of Change Process

Author: Guimar Alejandra Reinoza-Puentes

Publisher:

Published: 2010

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Almost regardless of the industry sector, one of the main pitfalls in the Management of Change (MOC) process that impacts the project performance is the estimation and approval process of multiple changes during the execution phase. The legal process of claim disputes between contractors and owners emphasizes the need to identify and quantify the ripple effect that changes have. Thus the main goal from the engineering management standpoint is to incorporate the analysis of the loss of productivity when revising a project budget and schedule due to additions or modifications to the contracted scope of work. This study used a practical approach based on research developed in the construction and mechanical industry to estimate the cumulative effect of changes on project productivity and applied them to two projects from the oil and gas engineering industry. It includes the quantitative analysis of 4 traditional indicators of the behavior of impacted projects, namely: the Project Loading Curve (PLC), the Percent Change (PC), the Productivity Index (PI), and the Loss of Productivity (LOP) due solely to changes. The results show a first estimate of the Loss of Productivity based on the Percent of Change, using the available cost and progress project data; however, an exact fit to the expected statistical trends was not clearly met. Even for Actual PLCs higher than the planned ones the lead-time effects due to late changes were not observable, the estimated PIs did not decreased with higher PCs, and the mathematical expressions accounting the timing effect produced good results when compared with the project reported data but did not verify that late changes produce lower productivities. Nevertheless, it was possible to isolate the negative effect of multiple change orders in the project productivity using the concepts of unimpacted and average productivity derived from the Measured Mile and K-means Cluster methods. This study concludes that the nature of the changes played a significant role in the behavior of the productivity in engineering projects, which might have a lesser effect in the construction and mechanical industries. It proposes taking new proprietary data currently derived from the engineering industry and applying the described methodology to a larger number of projects to support a trend that can be used as an early estimating tool in the claim process of changes.

Construction Project Management
Construction Project Management

Author: Eddy M. Rojas

Publisher: J. Ross Publishing

Published: 2009-06-15

Total Pages: 433

ISBN-13: 1604270020

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Construction Project Management offers some of the best project management studies commissioned by ELECTRI International: The Foundation for Electrical Construction that were selected, coordinated, and monitored by some of the most progressive contractors and performed by outstanding scholars from top U.S. universities. Topics include pre-construction planning, early warning signs of project distress, impact of change orders, project sequencing, ideal jobsite inventory levels, tool and material control systems, recommended safety practices, partnering, total quality management, quality assurance, performance evaluations, and contract risk management. All specialty and general contractors will find value in this practical book. The concepts presented will improve your understanding of the main issues affecting construction project management and will provide you with tools and strategies to enhance your company's productivity and profitability.