Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era
Author: Andrea Carriero
Publisher:
Published: 2020
Total Pages:
ISBN-13:
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Author: Andrea Carriero
Publisher:
Published: 2020
Total Pages:
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: William MacAskill
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2020
Total Pages: 237
ISBN-13: 0198722273
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAbout the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
Author: Ms.Elif C Arbatli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2017-05-30
Total Pages: 48
ISBN-13: 1484302362
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWe develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Author: Giray Gozgor
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Published: 2021-11-24
Total Pages: 240
ISBN-13: 2889716783
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: Mariarosaria Comunale
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2023-11-03
Total Pages: 77
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis paper develops a new data-driven metric to capture MacroEconomic Uncertainty (MEU) in the euro area. The measure is constructed as the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of a large set of time series, accounting for the monetary union as well as cross-country heterogeneity. MEU exhibits the largest spike at the time of the COVID-19 outbreak and is noticeably different from other more financial-oriented and policy-driven uncertainty measures. It also reveals a significant increase in inflation uncertainty in 2021-2022. Our BVAR-based analysis shows that an unexpected increase in the MEU has a negative and persistent impact on euro area's industrial production, accounting for 80 percent of its reduction during the first wave of COVID-19, therefore supporting the interpretation of COVID-19 shock as a macroeconomic uncertainty shock. Public debt increases in response to this uncertainty shock. Finally, an increase in MEU negatively affects Emerging Europe countries, contributing the most to the decline in their economic activity during this COVID-19 period.
Author: Robert C. Feenstra
Publisher: Macmillan
Published: 2011-03
Total Pages: 984
ISBN-13: 1429241039
DOWNLOAD EBOOKCombining classic international economics with straight-from-the- headlines immediacy, Feenstra and Taylor’s text seamlessly integrates the subject’s established core content with topic areas and ideas that have emerged from recent empirical studies. A MODERN APPROACH FOR THE 21ST CENTURY International economics texts traditionally place greater emphasis on theory and a strong focus on the advanced countries. Feenstra/Taylor links theory to empirical evidence throughout the book, and incorporates coverage of emerging markets and developing economies (India, China, SE Asia) to reflect the evolving realities of the global economy. The new edition has been extensively revised and updated, especially in light of the ongoing world financial crisis. NOTE: Feenstra/Taylor, International Economics, Second Edition, is available in four versions: International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-3118-1 International Trade, 2e: 1-4292-4104-7 International Macroeconomics, 2e: 1-4292-4103-9 Essentials of International Economics, 2e: 1-4292-7710-5
Author: Stanley J. Ulijaszek
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2017-10-12
Total Pages: 249
ISBN-13: 1107117518
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRationalities and models of obesity -- Energy balance, genetics and obesogenic environments -- Governance through measurement -- Inequalities -- Food and eating -- Global transformations of diet -- Obesity science and policy -- Complexity -- Systems and rationalities
Author: Joel Vos
Publisher: SAGE
Published: 2021-01-13
Total Pages: 193
ISBN-13: 1529752086
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Psychology of Covid-19 explores how the coronavirus is giving rise to a new order in our personal lives, societies and politics. Rooted in systematic research on Covid-19 and previous pandemics, including SARS, Ebola, HIV and the Spanish Flu, this book describes how Covid-19 has impacted a broad range of domains, including self-perception, lifestyle, politics, mental health, media, and meaning in life. Building on this, the book then sets out how we can improve our psychological and social resilience, to safeguard ourselves against the psychological effects of future pandemics.
Author: O. Diekmann
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2000-04-07
Total Pages: 324
ISBN-13: 9780471492412
DOWNLOAD EBOOKMathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation O. Diekmann University of Utrecht, The Netherlands J. A. P. Heesterbeek Centre for Biometry Wageningen, The Netherlands The mathematical modelling of epidemics in populations is a vast and important area of study. It is about translating biological assumptions into mathematics, about mathematical analysis aided by interpretation and about obtaining insight into epidemic phenomena when translating mathematical results back into population biology. Model assumptions are formulated in terms of, usually stochastic, behaviour of individuals and then the resulting phenomena, at the population level, are unravelled. Conceptual clarity is attained, assumptions are stated clearly, hidden working hypotheses are attained and mechanistic links between different observables are exposed. Features: * Model construction, analysis and interpretation receive detailed attention * Uniquely covers both deterministic and stochastic viewpoints * Examples of applications given throughout * Extensive coverage of the latest research into the mathematical modelling of epidemics of infectious diseases * Provides a solid foundation of modelling skills The reader will learn to translate, model, analyse and interpret, with the help of the numerous exercises. In literally working through this text, the reader acquires modelling skills that are also valuable outside of epidemiology, certainly within population dynamics, but even beyond that. In addition, the reader receives training in mathematical argumentation. The text is aimed at applied mathematicians with an interest in population biology and epidemiology, at theoretical biologists and epidemiologists. Previous exposure to epidemic concepts is not required, as all background information is given. The book is primarily aimed at self-study and ideally suited for small discussion groups, or for use as a course text.
Author: Renato de Filippis
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Published: 2023-05-09
Total Pages: 94
ISBN-13: 2832521010
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