Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks
Author: Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher:
Published: 1988
Total Pages: 0
ISBN-13:
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Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks
Author: Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher:
Published: 1988
Total Pages: 39
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEffects of Stress on Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks
Author: Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher:
Published: 1987
Total Pages: 8
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKExpert weather forecasters were observed as they attempted to forecast hail, microbursts, and severe storms. Studies of judgement policies were also conducted with representations of storms. Modest agreement among forecasters was found in all three cases, but hail forecasts were found to be of low accuracy. Judgement models, an AI expert system, and seven forecasters showed about the same degree of accuracy. Current psychological theory concerning judgement and decision making was found to be sufficient for these circumstances. Keywords: Cognition, Uncertainty, Dynamic task, Problem solving, Artificial intelligence.
Effects of Stress on Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks
Author: Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher:
Published: 1987
Total Pages: 4
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEffects of Stress on Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks
Author:
Publisher:
Published: 1987
Total Pages: 8
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKExpert weather forecasters were observed as they attempted to forecast hail, microbursts, and severe storms. Studies of judgement policies were also conducted with representations of storms. Modest agreement among forecasters was found in all three cases, but hail forecasts were found to be of low accuracy. Judgement models, an AI expert system, and seven forecasters showed about the same degree of accuracy. Current psychological theory concerning judgement and decision making was found to be sufficient for these circumstances. Keywords: Cognition, Uncertainty, Dynamic task, Problem solving, Artificial intelligence.
Effects of Stress on Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks
Author: Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher:
Published: 1991
Total Pages: 183
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThree empirical studies on judgment and decision making in dynamic tasks were carried out during the period 1 September 1988 to 31 December 1989. Subjects were expert research meteorologists. Topics were forecasting (a) hail, (b) microbursts, and (c) convection initiation (thunderstorms) at an airport approach. Primary findings were as follows: in the hail study, meteorologists' forecasts were closely approximated by a weighted-sum model; in the microburst study, experts who worked together for years, when tested in work conditions, did not agree on the judgments of principal cues; in the convection study, more accurate forecasts were made on high stress than low stress days, thus contradicting the conventional wisdom. Two annotated bibliographies were produced: the effects of stress on judgment and decision making, and the effects of variation of display formats on judgment and decision making.
Judgment and Decision Making
Author: Peter Juslin
Publisher: Psychology Press
Published: 2007-09-26
Total Pages: 353
ISBN-13: 1135668736
DOWNLOAD EBOOKResearch on human judgment and decision making has been strongly guided by a normative/descriptive approach, according to which human decision making is compared to the normative models provided by decision theory, statistics, and the probability calculus. A common empirical finding has been that human behavior deviates from the prescriptions by normative models--that judgments and decisions are subject to cognitive biases. It is interesting to note that Swedish research on judgment and decision making made an early departure from this dominating mainstream tradition, albeit in two different ways. The Neo-Brunswikian research highlights the relationship between the laboratory task and the adaptation to a natural environment. The process-tracing approach attempts to identify the cognitive processes before, during, and after a decision. This volume summarizes current Swedish research on judgment and decision making, covering topics, such as dynamic decision making, confidence research, the search for dominance structures and differentiation, and social decision making.
An Approach to Training Judgement to Improve Performance in a Real-time, Dynamic Decision-making Task
Author: Brian Minsk
Publisher:
Published: 1997
Total Pages: 294
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKJudgment and Decision-Making
Author: Nancy S. Kim
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
Published: 2017-10-19
Total Pages: 454
ISBN-13: 1350312215
DOWNLOAD EBOOKHow do we make the judgments that inform our lives? Is there any way of consciously removing bias from the choices we make? What do our everyday personal decisions have in common with those made by groups, companies, and even nations? In this engaging and innovative textbook, Nancy Kim presents a multidisciplinary introduction to the dynamic field of judgment and decision-making. This lucidly written text delivers insights from cognitive psychology, aptly combining with interdependent findings from fields as diverse as neuropsychology, behavioural economics, social, developmental and clinical psychology, and philosophy. Offering not only a comprehensive explanation of the neurological structures and cognitive processes that underlie how we make decisions and form judgments in our everyday lives, readers can expect to learn the implications of these decisions upon an individual's prospects for health and longevity. Understanding behaviour is a central aspect of inquiry in the psychology discipline and as such this book is an essential companion for students taking undergraduate psychology, cognitive psychology and cognitive neuroscience courses; particularly those which include a module in judgment and decision-making. This text may also be helpful for undergraduate and postgraduate business courses on the subject.
Judgement And Decision
Author: Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-03-04
Total Pages: 145
ISBN-13: 0429727275
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFrom various vantage points the authors consider the topic of judgment and decision in policy formation. Richard Lamm, governor of Colorado, describes the problem of utilizing scientific knowledge in the context of political survival. Joseph Coates, assistant to the director, Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, explores the nature of public policy issues. Kenneth Hammond, director of the Center for the Study of Judgment and decision in Policy Formation at the University of Colorado, describes the competence of thought that can he brought to bear on public policy issues. Paul Slovic, Decision Research Inc., addresses the problem of risk assessment in policy formation from the point of view of a cognitive psychologist. Ward Edwards, director, Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, describes the general manner in which decision theory may be applied to policy formation. Kenneth Boulding, program director, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, provides an overview of judgment and decision in policy formation. Eillel Einhorn, professor of industrial psychology, University of Chicago, shows the consequences of fallible judgment for social policy formation. Kenneth Hammond and Leonard Adelman provide an example of the application of judgment analysis to a public policy issue.
