How to Select Fiscal Rules

How to Select Fiscal Rules

Author: Victor Duarte Lledo

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 9781484337233

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This note provides guidance on how to select fiscal rules in a wide range of economies, including advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. The principles and methods discussed are intuitive and easy to implement, and leave room for policy judgment. The methods are based on past academic and IMF work, including analytic and policy papers, technical assistance missions, and training. The note is structured as follows. The first section lays out general principles regarding the design of fiscal rules. The second section reviews the most common rules and describes their pros and cons. The third section presents the various types of analytical tools used to select fiscal rules (some files and manuals accompany this note to implement the methods; they are available from the authors upon request). The last section offers some considerations on rules in developing countries, with a specific focus on commodity exporters. An overview of the theoretical literature is provided in the Appendix. This is one of two guidance notes on the design of fiscal rules; the other one focuses on rule calibration. The two exercises are linked: if a fiscal framework had to be built from scratch, rules would need to be selected and calibrated at the same time.


How to Design Subnational Fiscal Rules

How to Design Subnational Fiscal Rules

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-25

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1513527037

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This note discusses how to design subnational fiscal rules, including how to select them and calibrate them. It expands on the guidance provided at the national level on rule selection and calibration in IMF (2018a) and IMF (2018b). Thinking on subnational fiscal rules is still evolving, including their effectiveness (for example, Heinemann, Moessinger, and Yeter 2018; Kotia and Lledó 2016; Foremny 2014), and this note only provides a first analysis based on international experiences and the technical assistance provided by the IMF. Main findings are summarized in Box 1. The note is divided into five sections. The first section defines fiscal rules. The second section discusses the rationale for subnational rules. The third section provides some guidance on how to select the appropriate rule(s) and whether they should differ across individual jurisdictions. The fourth section explores the issue of flexibility by looking at how rules should adjust to shocks. Finally, the last section focuses on the “calibration” of the rules.


Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis

Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis

Author: Ms.Andrea Schaechter

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-07-01

Total Pages: 49

ISBN-13: 1475505353

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Strengthening fiscal frameworks, in particular fiscal rules, has emerged as a key response to the fiscal legacy of the crisis. This paper takes stock of fiscal rules in use around the world, compiles a dataset - covering national and supranational fiscal rules, in 81 countries from 1985 to end-March 2012 - and presents details about the rules’ key design elements, particularly in support of enforcement. This information is summarized in a set of fiscal rules indices. Three key findings emerge: (i) many new fiscal rules have been adopted and existing ones strengthened in response to the crisis; (ii) the number of fiscal rules and the comprehensiveness of the design features in emerging economies has caught up to those in advanced economies; and (iii) the "next-generation" fiscal rules are increasingly complex as they combine the objectives of sustainability and with the need for flexibility in response to shocks, thereby creating new challenges for implementation, communication, and monitoring.


Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances

Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-12-11

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13: 1498335160

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The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation, discusses the design and implementation of rules based on a new data base spanning the whole Fund membership, and explores the fiscal framework that could be adopted as countries emerge from the crisis.


Fiscal Rules at a Glance

Fiscal Rules at a Glance

Author: Mrs.Nina Budina

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-11-14

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13: 1616359102

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This paper provides country-specific information on fiscal rules in use in 81 countries from 1985 to end-September 2012. It serves as background material and update of the July 2012 Working Paper “Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis—Toward the ‘Next Generation’ Rules: A New Dataset” and is also available in an easy accessible electronic data visualization tool (http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/FiscalRules/map/map.htm.).The dataset covers four types of rules: budget balance rules, debt rules, expenditure rules, and revenue rules, applying to the central or general government or the public sector. It also presents details on various characteristics of rules, such as their legal basis, coverage, escape clauses, as well as key supporting features such as independent monitoring bodies.


Second-Generation Fiscal Rules

Second-Generation Fiscal Rules

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-13

Total Pages: 132

ISBN-13: 1484350685

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Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog


Fiscal Rules in a Volatile World

Fiscal Rules in a Volatile World

Author: Carlos Garcia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-03-01

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1455221007

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It is widely agreed that a fiscal rule should boost discipline and credibility, reduce macroeconomic volatility, and be easily understood. To support such goals, a government may run structural surpluses and accumulate a precautionary cushion of assets on behalf of agents who do not enjoy access to capital markets. As an additional criterion, that level of assets should be bounded. We provide an example of a structural surplus rule that satisfies all such criteria. In our general equilibrium simulations, we show that such a rule benefits credit-constrained consumers but may hurt others.


How to Calibrate Fiscal Rules

How to Calibrate Fiscal Rules

Author: Luc Eyraud

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1484337301

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This note provides guidance on how to calibrate fiscal rules, that is, how to determine the thresholds (ceiling, floor, or target) for specific fiscal aggregates constrained by rules. The note focuses, more specifically, on the calibration of the debt, balance, and expenditure rules. The note is divided into four sections. The first section discusses general principles used to calibrate rules. The second section reports international evidence on the numerical ceilings used in existing rules. The third and fourth sections provide guidance on the calibration of the debt ceiling and the operational rules (fiscal balance and expenditure rules). This is one of two guidance notes on the design of fiscal rules; the other one focuses on rule selection. The two exercises are linked: if a fiscal framework had to be built from scratch, rules would need to be selected and calibrated at the same time.


Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

Author: Ms.Martine Guerguil

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-01-22

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1513581465

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This paper assesses the impact of different types of flexible fiscal rules on the procyclicality of fiscal policy with propensity scores-matching techniques, thus mitigating traditional self-selection problems. It finds that not all fiscal rules have the same impact: the design matters. Specifically, investment-friendly rules reduce the procyclicality of both overall and investment spending. The effect appears stronger in bad times and when the rule is enacted at the national level. The introduction of escape clauses in fiscal rules does not seem to affect the cyclical stance of public spending. The inclusion of cyclical adjustment features in spending rules yields broadly similar results. The results are mixed for cyclically-adjusted budget balance rules: enacting the latter is associated with countercyclical movements in overall spending, but with procyclical changes in investment spending. Structural factors, such as past debt, the level of development, the volatility of terms of trade, natural resources endowment, government stability, and the legal enforcement and monitoring arrangements backing the rule also influence the link between fiscal rules and countercyclicality. The results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications.


Fiscal Policy Rules

Fiscal Policy Rules

Author: Mr.George Kopits

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-07-22

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 9781557757043

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What are fiscal policy rules? What are the principal benefits and drawbacks associated with various fiscal rules, particularly compared with alternative approaches to fiscal adjustment? Can fiscal rules contribute to long-run sustainability and welfare without sacrificing short-run stabilization? If so, what characteristics of fiscal rules make this contribution most effective? And in what circumstances and contexts, if any should the IMF encourage its member countries to adopt fiscal rules? This paper seeks to identify sensible fiscal policy rules that can succeed, if chosen by a member country, as an alternative to descretionary fiscal rules.