Geoeconomic Fragmentation and International Diversification Benefits

Geoeconomic Fragmentation and International Diversification Benefits

Author: Tatsushi Okuda

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-03-08

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper applies the two-country open-economy model with trade in stocks and bonds of Coeurdacier et al. (2010) to quantify the loss of international diversification benefits for major advanced economies, which have a significant presence in international financial markets, under geoeconomic fragmentation. We perform counterfactual simulations under different hypothetical fragmentation scenarios in which these economies are unable to trade with geopolitically distant countries, as measured by voting disagreement on foreign policy issues at the United Nations General Assembly meetings during 2012-2021. The simulation results imply a potentially significant loss of international diversification benefits of financial openness for the considered advanced economies by limiting trading to partner countries that are geopolitical allies with highly synchronized business cycles.


Geo-Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism

Geo-Economic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism

Author: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-01-15

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism


Diversified Development

Diversified Development

Author: Indermit S. Gill

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2014-02-26

Total Pages: 400

ISBN-13: 1464801207

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Eurasian economies have to become efficient more productive, job-creating, and stable. But efficiency is not the same as diversification. Governments need to worry less about the composition of exports and production and more about asset portfolios natural resources, built capital, and economic institutions.


World Economic Outlook, April 2024

World Economic Outlook, April 2024

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-04-16

Total Pages: 202

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, while a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and to ensure debt sustainability. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.


Norway

Norway

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-09-18

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Norway’s economy continues to perform strongly, reflecting strong policy frameworks and policy implementation, solid fiscal and banking system buffers, and a comprehensive social safety net. A few important challenges that need to be addressed include boosting labor supply, containing public expenditure pressures, and raising productivity.


Global Financial Stability Report April 2023

Global Financial Stability Report April 2023

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-04-11

Total Pages: 126

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth declines to about 2.5 percent in 2023 with advanced economy growth falling below 1 percent. Global headline inflation in the baseline is set to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline more slowly. Inflation’s return to target is unlikely before 2025 in most cases.


World Development Report 2009

World Development Report 2009

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2008-11-04

Total Pages: 410

ISBN-13: 082137608X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.


ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration Amid Fragmentation Risks

ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration Amid Fragmentation Risks

Author: Nuri Baek

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-09-15

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The ASEAN-5 region, which comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, has benefited substantially from its integration to the world economy, particularly through trade. Rising risks of geoeconomic fragmentation could reverse some gains reaped from globalization over the past decades. In this context, advancing regional integration among ASEAN-5 members has the potential to enhance the region’s resilience against external headwinds. This paper shows that despite sizeable progress, particularly in regional trade integration, there is room to advance financial integration, which also lags trade integration in ASEAN-5. Empirical findings from the paper illustrate that a higher degree of regional financial integration could generate sizeable output gains for the region. Using firm-level data, the paper highlights that digitalization, an area where the region is thriving, can support regional integration by helping firms better integrate into global value chains, with the benefits being stronger for small and medium sized enterprises. The results also suggest that digitalization can help firms move up the value chain through the production of more sophisticated products, often coined as higher export sophistication.


Singapore

Singapore

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-08-29

Total Pages: 109

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Singapore’s post pandemic recovery is nearly complete; underpinned by its strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ decisive policies. While overall output surpassed pre-COVID levels in 2021, the growth momentum has slowed and activities in consumer-facing (except retail) and construction sectors remain below pre-pandemic levels. Inflation remains elevated but has started moderating. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, arising mainly from an abrupt global slowdown or a recession in Singapore’s largest trading partners, tighter global financial conditions, and a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation.


The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution Vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy

The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution Vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy

Author: Reda Cherif

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-04-26

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged competition, economies of scale, innovation, and local integration and provided market signals to policymakers. Even in a large market such as India, import substitution policies in the automotive industry failed because of micromanagement and misaligned incentives. We also analyze the risk tradeoffs involved in various industrial policy strategies and their implications on the 21st century industrial policies. While state interventions may be needed to develop some new capabilities and industries, trade protectionism is neither a necessary nor a sufficient tool and will most likely be counterproductive.