Forecasting models for national economic planning
Author: A. R. G. Heesterman
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2013-11-11
Total Pages: 140
ISBN-13: 9401762147
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPosts
Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning
Author: Charles W. Chase
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2021-08-03
Total Pages: 275
ISBN-13: 111980986X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDiscover a new, demand-centric framework for forecasting and demand planning In Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning, thought leader and forecasting expert Charles W. Chase delivers a practical and novel approach to retail and consumer goods companies demand planning process. The author demonstrates why a demand-centric approach relying on point-of-sale and syndicated scanner data is necessary for success in the new digital economy. The book showcases short- and mid-term demand sensing and focuses on disruptions to the marketplace caused by the digital economy and COVID-19. You’ll also learn: How to improve demand forecasting and planning accuracy, reduce inventory costs, and minimize waste and stock-outs What is driving shifting consumer demand patterns, including factors like price, promotions, in-store merchandising, and unplanned and unexpected events How to apply analytics and machine learning to your forecasting challenges using proven approaches and tactics described throughout the book via several case studies. Perfect for executives, directors, and managers at retailers, consumer products companies, and other manufacturers, Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning will also earn a place in the libraries of sales, marketing, supply chain, and finance professionals seeking to sharpen their understanding of how to predict future consumer demand.
Economic Forecasting
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2016-04-05
Total Pages: 567
ISBN-13: 1400880890
DOWNLOAD EBOOKA comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Published: 2018-05-08
Total Pages: 380
ISBN-13: 0987507117
DOWNLOAD EBOOKForecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Allocation Models and their Use in Economic Planning
Author: Aaart R. Heesterman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-12-06
Total Pages: 212
ISBN-13: 9401030847
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThree different lines of approach have contributed to the theory of optimal planning. One approach considers the problem from the view-point of a national government and its adviser, the econometrician planning speci alist. The government can, if this is thought to be desirable, stimulate investment in certain directions and discourage other economic activities. By various fiscal devices, it can influence both the total level and the distribution of investment funds over different sectors of production. Also, in many countries, a public agency plays some kind of coordinat ing role in the formulation of long-term plans for output by the enter prises sector; this may range from administrative direction in so-called centrally planned economies, to persuasion and advice in 'capitalist' economies. Accordingly, the public planner wishes to know what dis tribution of the nation's resources would be 'optimal'. This leads to the construction of various models which may be described under the general heading 'input-output type models'. This type of model has been largely developed by practitioners, among whom Sandee [B2] is probably the most outstanding and the earliest. A later, well-developed example of a model based on this approach is, for example, the Czech model by Cerny et al. [Bl]. A second approach considers the problem from the point of view of the private entrepreneur and his adviser, the manager and financial accountant.
Forecasting for Economics and Business
Author: Gloria González-Rivera
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2016-12-05
Total Pages: 511
ISBN-13: 1315510405
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFor junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.
Forecasting Economic Time Series
Author: Michael Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 1998-10-08
Total Pages: 402
ISBN-13: 9780521634809
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods
Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2018
Total Pages: 617
ISBN-13: 0190622016
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEconomic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.
Strategic Planning and Forecasting
Author: William Ascher
Publisher: Wiley-Interscience
Published: 1983-09-23
Total Pages: 344
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe first systematic treatment of political forecasting and risk assessment as critical elements in the strategic planning process. Evaluates alternative methods of political forecasting based on case studies and general performance appraisals. Offers practical--at times controversial--insights on organizing the forecasting effort, selecting appropriate methods, integrating non-political socio-economic projections, and presenting results. Emphasizes the importance of detailed analysis of political context and organizational structure.
The Making of National Economic Forecasts
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Published: 2009-01-01
Total Pages: 400
ISBN-13: 1849802165
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
