Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.
"From the unique perspective of a U.S. Forest Service elite, a Type 1 Interagency "Hotshot" Crew (the "SEAL Team Six of the firefighting world"), poems weave together memory, urgency, and the passage of time. Features segments from actual incident reports, forcing readers to witness what it's like to stand before an inferno, walking with one foot in the black. An elegy for the self and the damage one sustains fighting wildfires"--
In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex 'black box' equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Art Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making.
From the acclaimed author of Tubes, a lively and surprising tour through the global network that predicts our weather, the people behind it, and what it reveals about our climate and our planet The weather is the foundation of our daily lives. It’s a staple of small talk, the app on our smartphones, and often the first thing we check each morning. Yet, behind all these humble interactions is the largest and most elaborate piece of infrastructure human beings have ever constructed—a triumph of both science and global cooperation. But what is the weather machine, and who created it? In The Weather Machine, Andrew Blum takes readers on a fascinating journey through the people, places, and tools of forecasting, exploring how the weather went from something we simply observed to something we could actually predict. As he travels across the planet, he visits some of the oldest and most important weather stations and watches the newest satellites blast off. He explores the dogged efforts of forecasters to create a supercomputer model of the atmosphere, while trying to grasp the ongoing relevance of TV weather forecasters. In the increasingly unpredictable world of climate change, correctly understanding the weather is vital. Written with the sharp wit and infectious curiosity Andrew Blum is known for, The Weather Machine pulls back the curtain on a universal part of our everyday lives, illuminating our changing relationships with technology, the planet, and our global community.
George J. McCormack, (1887-1974) had a life-long interest in astrology and the weather. Inspired by the astrometeorological work of A.J. Pearce (1840-1923), McCormack meticulously tracked and recorded the weather, from before World War I, until his death more than half a century later. In 1947, after 23 years of research, he published his "key" to long-range weather forecasting, being this book. Confident of his ability, in the spring of 1947 McCormack predicted one of the most severe winters in decades, specifically forecasting the infamous snows of December 26, 1947. He was nationally famous overnight. The techniques he used are in this amazing book. With study, they will become yours. The weather bureau predicts the weather, day by day, by careful observation of current conditions. You can learn to predict based on underlying celestial factors, which can be known months, even years, in advance. In 1963, before the US Weather Bureau, and again in 1964, before the American Meteorological Society, McCormack presented his life's work. Both groups ignored him, to our great loss. Use this book, make a better choice.
This solemn, rhythmic intonation of the shipping forecast on BBC radio is as familiar as the sound of Big Ben chiming the hour. Since its first broadcast in the 1920s it has inspired poems, songs and novels in addition to its intended objective of warning generations of seafarers of impending storms and gales. Sitting at home listening to the shipping forecast can be a cosily reassuring experience. There's no danger of a westerly gale eight, veering southwesterly increasing nine later (visibility poor) gusting through your average suburban living room, blowing the Sunday papers all over the place and startling the cat. Yet familiar though the sea areas are by name, few people give much thought to where they are or what they contain. In ATTENTION ALL SHIPPING Charlie Connelly wittily explores the places behind the voice, those mysterious regions whose names seem often to bear no relation to conventional geography. Armchair travel will never be the same again.
God's global reset has begun--and He WILL get the glory out of the chaos. An unprecedented shaking is underway in the systems and nations of this earth. But even as the world churns with upheaval, you can stand firm. Through biblical teaching and sound prophetic insight, pastor and prophet Joshua Giles will help you discover God's plans and strategies to prepare for the unusual and uncertain times ahead. Here is everything you need to align with heaven's agenda, overcome fear of the future, find your purpose and thrive amid the change. "Joshua Giles reveals how to be positioned as a glorious overcomer and frontliner in the midst of all that lies ahead. I highly recommend this book."--PATRICIA KING, author, minister, media host "Joshua Giles penned a relevant resource with an Issachar anointing and prophetic insight to see from heaven's lens the overall plan of God for the future of the Church."--DR. HAKEEM COLLINS, prophetic voice, international speaker, author of The Power of Aligning Your Words to God's Will
What does it mean to forecast the weather? How do weather forecasters do their jobs? Readers will learn the ins and outs of weather forecasting in this book. Accessible text and appealing photos show forecasters at work and encourage students to think about how forecasting works and what weather forecasts mean to them.
The Weather Forecasting Red Book is a groundbreaking reference that breaks away from theory and helps forecasters tackle everyday prediction problems. The book contains a wealth of information on real-life techniques, methods, and forecast systems. It draws upon a wealth of experience collected by the weather services of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The first section deals with observational systems, explaining what quantities of wind, temperature, and pressure really mean. The analysis section defines standards and conventions for weather maps. The forecasting section has over a hundred pages of techniques, methods, patterns, and basic ideas and principles. And in the numerical model section, key details of the latest models are explained. It's written by a forecaster for forecasters. If it's needed at the forecast desk, it's in here.
