Estimation of Pay Entry Base Date (PEBD) Enlisted Personnel Rating Force Structures from Total Active Federal Military Service (TAFMS) Data
Estimation of Pay Entry Base Date (PEBD) Enlisted Personnel Rating Force Structures from Total Active Federal Military Service (TAFMS) Data

Author: Jules Borack

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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The purpose of this research effort is to obtain and evaluate a mathematical technique to estimate PEBD rating force structure inventories from TAFMS force structure data. Exponential smoothing techniques were utilized to obtain estimates of TAFMS to PEBD rating inventory conversion factors. The data base studied consisted of all TAFMS and PEBD rating inventories for the period FY1971-1976. The obtained factors were then employed to estimate 30 June 1976 PEBD rating inventories from the corresponding 30 June 1976 TAFMS rating inventories. In this way, estimates of 96 PEBD rating inventories were obtained and compared to the actual PEBD inventory of the corresponding rate code. A statistical technique based upon exponential smoothing provides accurate PEBD rating and ALNAV force structure estimates.

Techniques for Estimating Pay Entry Base Date Enlisted Personnel Force Structures from Data Categorized by Total Active Federal Military Service
Techniques for Estimating Pay Entry Base Date Enlisted Personnel Force Structures from Data Categorized by Total Active Federal Military Service

Author: Jules I. Borack

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13:

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The purpose of this research effort is to develop and assess the accuracy of mathematical techniques which estimate PEBD force structure data (and, concurrently, obtain cost estimates) from TAFMS force structure data. Statistical techniques involving marginal estimation, cell-by-cell conversion, and lagged correlation and regression models were developed and evaluated in terms of their ability to both accurately estimate individual force structure cells and obtain the cost of the entire force structure matrix. The data base studied consisted of series of annual TAFMS and PEBD force structure matrices for the period FY1966-FY1976. Analysis consisted of applying various statistical techniques to 6-year streams of data and applying the obtained results to convert TAFMS data of the following year to PEBD. In this way, estimates of PEBD force structures for FY1973-FY1976 were obtained and compared to the actual PEBD matrix of the corresponding year. Choice of statistical technique for implementation was based upon both theoretical considerations and the result of these comparisons. A statistical technique based upon apportioned highest lagged correlation linear regression estimates provided highly accurate force-structure cost estimates. A statistical technique based upon apportionment of prior-year conversion factors also provided surprisingly accurate cost estimates. Utilization of either an apportioned linear regression or apportioned prior-year conversion factor technique substantially improved estimates obtained from naive costing of TAFMS data matrices.

Assessing Compensation Reform
Assessing Compensation Reform

Author: Beth J. Asch

Publisher: RAND Corporation

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 142

ISBN-13:

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Military compensation is a pillar of the all-volunteer force. It is a fundamental policy tool for attracting and retaining personnel, and its structure-and the incentives implied by its structure-can affect U.S. service members' willingness to join, exert effort, demonstrate their leadership potential, remain in the military, and, eventually, exit the military at an appropriate time. Military compensation is a composite of current pay and allowances, special and incentive pays, health benefits, disability benefits, retirement benefits, and other benefits. Its importance to the readiness and morale of the force is such that it is reviewed every four years to determine whether it is adequate to meet the U.S. military's objectives. To inform the 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation, this monograph presents an in-depth examination of the mix and structure of the U.S. military's current retirement-benefit system and several policy alternatives. The study included the development of a model that was estimated and used to run a series of simulations based on active-duty and reserve personnel data to track the careers and potential decisionmaking of military personnel across the services. The simulation results were then assessed in terms of their cost-effectiveness and ability to meet the services' expectations for accession, retention, and career mobility.