Timely and pathbreaking, Securing the Peace is the first book to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in establishing peace over the long term. Much of the thinking in this area has centered on third parties presiding over the maintenance of negotiated settlements, but the problem with this focus is that fewer than a quarter of recent civil wars have ended this way. Furthermore, these settlements have been precarious, often resulting in a recurrence of war. Toft finds that military victory, especially victory by rebels, lends itself to a more durable peace. She argues for the importance of the security sector--the police and military--and explains that victories are more stable when governments can maintain order. Toft presents statistical evaluations and in-depth case studies that include El Salvador, Sudan, and Uganda to reveal that where the security sector remains robust, stability and democracy are likely to follow. An original and thoughtful reassessment of civil war terminations, Securing the Peace will interest all those concerned about resolving our world's most pressing conflicts.
A fascinating inside look at what it takes to bring irreconcilable foes to the conference table and the pressures of brokering peace in an ethnically riven society at war with itself
STOPPING THE KILLING travels from Latin America and the United States to Africa and the Middle East to grapple with the critical issue of civil wars and their powerful impact on the international scene.
This volume brings together academics, experts, and practitioners to explore pathways to ending the current civil wars in the Middle East. It starts by examining the history of civil wars in the region in the 20th century, moves on to what we know about ending civil wars and the geopolitics of the current conflicts, and then delves into the causes, drivers, and dynamics of the ongoing civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Afghanistan, as well as the recent civil war in Iraq. While readers will find little easy optimism within these pages, they will gain a better understanding of the obstacles and opportunities for advancing toward peace and stability in each of these countries, as well as escaping the conflict trap in which the region is mired. The unique combination of academic, analytic, and practitioner perspectives will help policymakers step back from the immediacy of today to consider the various elements of a broader sustained strategy for resolving these conflicts that involves actors at the national, regional, and global levels. Policymakers, academics, students, and concerned citizens will come away with a richer and more nuanced understanding of the drivers of civil conflict in the region, the particular challenges of the individual civil wars, and the factors that need to be brought to bear to bring these conflicts to an end, and create a stable and sustainable peace.
Since 1945, the average length of civil wars has increased three-fold. What explains this startling fact? Hironaka points to the crucial role of the international community in propping up new and weak states that resulted from the postwar decolonization movement. These states are prone to conflicts and lack the resources to resolve them decisively.
The Geography of Ethnic Violence is the first among numerous distinguished books on ethnic violence to clarify the vital role of territory in explaining such conflict. Monica Toft introduces and tests a theory of ethnic violence, one that provides a compelling general explanation of not only most ethnic violence, civil wars, and terrorism but many interstate wars as well. This understanding can foster new policy initiatives with real potential to make ethnic violence either less likely or less destructive. It can also guide policymakers to solutions that endure. The book offers a distinctively powerful synthesis of comparative politics and international relations theories, as well as a striking blend of statistical and historical case study methodologies. By skillfully combining a statistical analysis of a large number of ethnic conflicts with a focused comparison of historical cases of ethnic violence and nonviolence--including four major conflicts in the former Soviet Union--it achieves a rare balance of general applicability and deep insight. Toft concludes that only by understanding how legitimacy and power interact can we hope to learn why some ethnic conflicts turn violent while others do not. Concentrated groups defending a self-defined homeland often fight to the death, while dispersed or urbanized groups almost never risk violence to redress their grievances. Clearly written and rigorously documented, this book represents a major contribution to an ongoing debate that spans a range of disciplines including international relations, comparative politics, sociology, and history.
Since the end of the Cold War, a series of costly civil wars, many of them ethnic conflicts, have dominated the international security agenda. This volume offers a detailed examination of four recent interventions by the international community.
Matthew Preston returns politics to its rightful place at the heart of the study of internal conflict. Rejecting approaches that emphasise economics or ethnicity, this investigation of the wars in Rhodesia and Lebanon sets out the complex political dynamic that eventually brought each to an end. Above all, it demonstrates the robustness of local agendas in civil wars and the difficulties outsiders face in brokering settlements. With intervention in 'failed states' so high up the international agenda, the message is one that scholars and policy-makers can ill afford to ignore.
Ending Holy Wars explores how religious dimensions affect the possibilities for conflict resolution in civil war. This is the first book that systematically tries to map out the religious dimensions of internal armed conflicts and explain the conditions under which religious dimensions impede peaceful settlement. It draws upon empirical work on global data, based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and complements this quantitative data with several smaller case studies (Sri Lanka, Philippines and Indonesia). The book shows how religious identities and incompatibilities influence the likelihood of agreements and the mechanisms through which parties and third-party mediators have been able to overcome religious obstacles to negotiated settlements. These findings pave the way for a discussion on how conflict theory can better incorporate religious dimensions, as well as how policy can be designed to manage religious dimensions in armed conflicts.