The 2009 global economic crisis has significantly impacted international tourism, causing a decline in international tourist arrivals and international tourism revenues. This study looks into the effects of the decrease in international tourism demand on the employment, income opportunities and the livelihood of poor and vulnerable groups, as well as on the capacity of households to cope with such shocks. The report combines a comparative large-N macro-economic analysis with case studies on the Maldives, Costa Rica and Tanzania.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
During 2008-2009, the world experienced its worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The crisis followed the effects of the food and fuel price hikes in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, global output contracted by 2 per cent. This 2011 Report on the World Social Situation reviews the ongoing adverse social consequences of these crises after an overview of its causes and transmission.
“The crisis has deeply impacted virtually every economy in the world, and although growth has returned, much progress in the fight against poverty has been lost. More difficult international conditions in the years to come will mean that developing countries will have to place even more emphasis on improving domestic economic conditions to achieve the kind of growth that can durably eradicate poverty.� —Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank 'Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth' explores both the short- and medium-term impacts of the financial crisis on developing countries. Although global growth has resumed, the recovery is fragile, and unless business and consumer demand strengthen, the world economy could slow down again. Even if, as appears likely, a double-dip recession is avoided, the recovery is expected to be slow. High unemployment and widespread restructuring will continue to characterize the global economy for the next several years. Already, the crisis has provoked large-scale human suffering. Some 64 million more people around the world are expected to be living on less than a $1.25 per day by the end of 2010, and between 30,000 and 50,000 more infants may have died of malnutrition in 2009 in Sub-Saharan Africa, than would have been the case if the crisis had not occurred. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to recover. But increased risk aversion, a necessary and desirable tightening of financial regulations in high-income countries, and measures to reduce the exposure of developing economies to external shocks are likely to make finance scarcer and more costly than it was during the boom period. As a result, just as the ample liquidity of the early 2000s prompted an investment boom and an acceleration in developing-country potential output, higher costs will likely yield a slowing in developing-country potential growth rates of between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points, and as much as an 8 percent decline in potential output over the medium term. In the longer term, however, developing countries can more than offset the implications of more expensive international finance by reducing the cost of capital channeled through their domestic financial markets. For more information, please visit www.worldbank.org/gep2010. To access Prospects for the Global Economy, an online companion publication, please visit www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.
This Selected Issues paper identifies key challenges among households in reducing nonperforming loans (NPL) further in Cyprus, namely, low repayment capacity, particularly among a certain group of debtors; and weak repayment discipline owing to strategic behavior. Despite some revival of lending activity, the role of bank credit as a funding source remains limited. External inflows, drawdown of savings, use of own funds, and unpaid debt service obligations are contributing to financing economic activities, but these sources may not be sustainable over the medium term. Addressing NPLs to lower borrowing costs and reviving credit supply will be important for supporting longer-term growth. Since 2017, bank credit has provided only a moderate amount of new financing. The reduction in credit-to-GDP ratio has been almost entirely achieved by NPL write-offs and sale or transfer of loans out of the banking system, and through denominator effect. As of 2017, credit demand appears moderately strong, in line with robust economic growth, while credit supply remains broadly unchanged, reflecting continued risk averseness by banks. These trends suggest that while deleveraging is expected to continue through clean-up of bank balance sheets, growth in credit flows (pure new loans) are likely to remain at a moderate level until NPL recovery and repayment discipline improves significantly.
The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
The tourism sector has been deeply affected particularly in economic terms by the COVID-19 pandemic. This crisis has led to new practices and radical changes. Scientists emphasize that mankind will face pandemics more frequently in the forthcoming years. Thus, it is important to understand the negative impacts the COVID-19 pandemic had on the tourism sector as well as the measures that were and are being put in place to protect the industry during future outbreaks. The Handbook of Research on the Impacts and Implications of COVID-19 on the Tourism Industry is a comprehensive reference source that reflects upon the evaluations of the experienced and ongoing pandemic crisis in the context of the tourism sector. The positive and negative effects experienced by tourism employees and tourists are examined, and post-pandemic processes and business practices are evaluated. Covering topics including consumer rights in tourism, dynamic changes in the tourism industry, and employment in tourism, this book is suitable for travel agencies, restaurateurs, hotel managers, brand managers, marketers, advertisers, managers, executives, hospitality personnel, policymakers, government officials, tourism practitioners, students, academicians, and researchers seeking the latest sustainable policies and practices that are being utilized to increase the productivity of the tourism sector and will allow it to thrive in the years to come.
As global tourism faces its greatest threat since World War II, the author draws on over 40 years of industry and academic experience to explore the core themes that underpin crises, their impact on the tourism industry and recovery. Focussing on this emerging issue in within the travel industry and academic tourism research, this author explores crisis management approaches from scholars, governments and tourism associations around the world. A dedicated chapter also covers the impact of Covid-19 on tourism industries and economies across the world and well as how nations from around the world responded to the global pandemic outbreak. The book is split by theme and features over 20 case studies, including 2020 Australian bush fires, 2019 Sri Lankan terror attack, SARS and Swine Flu, the collapse of Thomas Cook, the global and Greek financial crises and the threat to the Great Barrier Reef. Discussion questions and activities are included at the end of each chapter. Suitable reading for students on tourism and tourism crisis management modules.
