This report presents a critical analysis of the Delphi technique. The analysis is in four parts. First, the scope of the inquiry is defined, and issues pertinent to an evaluation of Delphi are raised. Second, conventional Delphi is evaluated against established professional standards for opinion questionnaires, and against associated scientific standards for experimentation with human subjects. Third, Delphi is evaluated with respect to its assumptions, principles, and methodology. Fourth, conclusions of the analysis are brought together and recommendations are made for the future use of Delphi.
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research is a practical guide to using the Delphi methodology for students and researchers in nursing and health. It adopts a logical step-by-step approach, introducing the researcher to the Delphi, outlining its development, analysing key characteristics and parameters for its successful use and exploring its applications in nursing and health. The book addresses issues of methodology, design, framing the research question, sampling, instrumentation, methodological rigour, reliability and validity, and methods of data analysis. The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research enables the reader to be aware of the limitations of the technique and possible solutions, to design a Delphi questionnaire for each of the different rounds of a study, to consider different approaches to the technique in relation to a study, to analyse the data from each round of a Delphi study, and to understand the importance of feedback between rounds. Key Features A practical guide to facilitate use of the Delphi technique Provides the reader with the necessary information to participate in and conduct Delphi studies Examines different types of Delphi, including the e-Delphi, and modifications made to the technique Includes examples of real empirical investigations, brief case scenarios and key learning points for each chapter Explores the role of the Delphi researcher Explores ethical issues and issues of anonymity, use of experts and controlled feedback
This volume is the outcome of a recent NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI) on "Technology Assessment. Environmental Impact Assessment. and Risk Analysis: Contributions from the Psychological and Decision Sciences." The Institute was held in Les Arcs. France and functioned as a high level teaching activity during which scientific research results were presented in detail by eminent lecturers. Support for the Institute was provided by grants from the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs. the u.S. Office of Naval Research. and the Russell Sage Foundation. The Institute covered several areas of research. including quantitative studies on decision and judgmental processes. studies on human intellectual limitations. studies on risk attitudes and perceptions. studies on factors contributing to conflicts and disputes about hazardous technologies and activities. studies on factors influencing forecasts and judgments by experts. studies on public preferences for decisionmaking processes. studies on public responses to technological hazards. and case studies applying principles and methods from the psychological and decision sciences in specific settings.
Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, w
Delphi methods enable the systematic collection of expert judgments. They have proven to be particularly useful when a certain level of expertise and judgment is required to answer a research question. There are different variants of Delphi methods, such as the group Delphi or the real-time Delphi. The book presents current methodological developments and examples of application in the social and health sciences. The contents● Delphi methods: Concepts and variants - Epistemological discussion - Practical challenges - Delphi in the social and health sciences - Real-time Delphi - Delphi markets.● Application examples for Delphi methods - Qualification requirements, recommendations for action for further development and strategy development in the health care industry - Personnel retention and recruitment in occupational nursing - Group Delphi for obesity prevention- Safety and health competence at work - Delphi methods in health promotion The editorsProf. Dr. Marlen Niederberger is professor for research methods in health promotion and prevention at the PH Schwäbisch Gmünd.Prof. Dr. Ortwin Renn is Scientific Director at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (IASS). This book is a translation of the original German 1st edition Delphi-Verfahren in den Sozial- und Gesundheitswissenschaften by Marlen Niederberger and Ortwin Renn, published by Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature in 2019. The translation was done with the help of artificial intelligence (machine translation by the service DeepL.com). A subsequent human revision was done primarily in terms of content, so that the book will read stylistically differently from a conventional translation. Springer Nature works continuously to further the development of tools for the production of books and on the related technologies to support the authors.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
