An econometric approach for modeling population change in Arkansas
An econometric approach for modeling population change in Arkansas

Author: David Alexandro Ramirez

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This study models population in the state of Arkansas using a small econometric model, and is similar to a previous demographic model developed by Fullerton and Barraza de Anda (2008). The components of population change consist of births, deaths, and net migration. Births minus deaths equal natural increase, and population in the current period is population from the previous period plus natural increase plus net migration. Births and deaths are modeled as functions of a one period autoregressive lag as well as national trends. Net migration is also modeled as a one period lag of itself in addition to relative labor market conditions. Results confirm that births and deaths contain strong inertial components. National trends positively affect births and deaths as well. Net migration also contains a strong inertial component. Additionally, relative labor market conditions also influence migration. Specifically, if employment in Arkansas increases relative to the rest of the country, Arkansas will experience positive net migration. Out of sample simulations are conducted in order to further test model validity. Simulation results are reasonable and follow recent trends. Natural increase and net migration are expected to decrease. Accordingly, population growth is expected to slow down. Experimentation with alternate specifications in addition to using different assumed growth rates for the exogenous variables is suggested. Furthermore, modeling population in nearby regions may assist in confirming, or rejecting, the results obtained in this study.^

Population Change, Migration, and Displacement Along the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System
Population Change, Migration, and Displacement Along the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System

Author: Rex R. Campbell

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This report investigates demographic impact as a result of the McClellan-Kerr River Project, a major Corps of Engineer system of multi-purpose lakes and navigation channels. The report concludes that the waterways are a major factor in the large net migration rate for the area. Distinguishing characteristics between migrants and residents are noted. (Author).

The New Americans
The New Americans

Author: Panel on the Demographic and Economic Impacts of Immigration

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 1997-10-28

Total Pages: 449

ISBN-13: 0309521424

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This book sheds light on one of the most controversial issues of the decade. It identifies the economic gains and losses from immigration--for the nation, states, and local areas--and provides a foundation for public discussion and policymaking. Three key questions are explored: What is the influence of immigration on the overall economy, especially national and regional labor markets? What are the overall effects of immigration on federal, state, and local government budgets? What effects will immigration have on the future size and makeup of the nation's population over the next 50 years? The New Americans examines what immigrants gain by coming to the United States and what they contribute to the country, the skills of immigrants and those of native-born Americans, the experiences of immigrant women and other groups, and much more. It offers examples of how to measure the impact of immigration on government revenues and expenditures--estimating one year's fiscal impact in California, New Jersey, and the United States and projecting the long-run fiscal effects on government revenues and expenditures. Also included is background information on immigration policies and practices and data on where immigrants come from, what they do in America, and how they will change the nation's social fabric in the decades to come.

The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2017-07-13

Total Pages: 643

ISBN-13: 0309444454

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The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.