A Fresh Look at Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Euro Area
Author: Christian Gayer
Publisher:
Published: 2007
Total Pages: 52
ISBN-13:
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Global Business Cycles
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2008-06-01
Total Pages: 51
ISBN-13: 1451870019
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration
Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-07-30
Total Pages: 197
ISBN-13: 3790828556
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2018-01-23
Total Pages: 47
ISBN-13: 1484338499
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWe examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Poland and the Eurozone
Author: J. Hölscher
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2014-10-21
Total Pages: 409
ISBN-13: 1137426411
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPoland is one of Europe's economic out-performers. The country's history and geography encourage it to be in favour of deeper European integration. This book aims to contribute to discussions on the future shape of EMU and the next steps ahead.
Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy
Author: Horst Siebert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2004-08-02
Total Pages: 364
ISBN-13: 9783540219170
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe integration of goods and financial markets has progressed on a global scale in recent years. Thus, the cyclical patterns in the world economy may have changed too. Against this background, experts in international economics analyze the synchronization of business cycles and their volatility in this book. Is there an European business cycle? What is the role of multinational corporations and monetary policy in transmitting business cycles? Further, they discuss the need and feasibility of internationally coordinating monetary and exchange rate policies and the quantitative effects of tax competition.
Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union
Author: Francisco Torres
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 1993-10-21
Total Pages: 406
ISBN-13: 052144019X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Maastricht Treaty, signed in December 1991, set a timetable for the European Community's economic and monetary union (EMU) and clearly defined the institutional policy changes necessary for its achievement. Subsequent developments have demonstrated, however, the importance of many key issues in the transition to EMU that were largely neglected at the time. This volume reports the proceedings of a joint CEPR conference with the Banco de Portugal, held in January 1992. In these papers, leading international experts address the instability of the transition to EMU, the long-run implications of monetary union and the single market for growth and convergence in Europe. They also consider the prospects for inflation and fiscal convergence, regional policy and the integration of financial markets and fiscal systems. Attention focuses on adjustment mechanisms with differentiated shocks, region-specific business cycles and excessive industrial concentration and the cases for a two-speed EMU and fiscal federalism.
Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2020-05-29
Total Pages: 50
ISBN-13: 1513536990
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTraditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2015-06-09
Total Pages: 295
ISBN-13: 1400866278
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts
Meta-regression Analysis in Economics and Business
Author: T. D. Stanley
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2012
Total Pages: 202
ISBN-13: 0415670780
DOWNLOAD EBOOKMeta-Regression Analysis in Economics and Business is the first text devoted to the meta-regression analysis (MRA) of economics and business research.
