Understanding India’s Food Inflation
Understanding India’s Food Inflation

Author: Rahul Anand

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-01-05

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1513567888

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Over the past decade, India has seen a prolonged period of high inflation, to a large extent driven by persistently-high food inflation. This paper investigates the demand and supply factors behind the contribution of relative food inflation to headline CPI inflation. It concludes that in the absence of a stronger food supply growth response, food inflation may exceed non-food inflation by 21⁄2–3 percentage points per year. The sustainability of a long-term inflation target of 4 percent under India’s recently-adopted flexible inflation targeting framework will depend on enhancing food supply, agricultural market-based pricing, and reducing price distortions. A well-designed cereal buffer stock liquidation policy could also help mitigate food inflation volatility.

Understanding India’s Food Inflation
Understanding India’s Food Inflation

Author: Rahul Anand

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-01-05

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1513581341

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Over the past decade, India has seen a prolonged period of high inflation, to a large extent driven by persistently-high food inflation. This paper investigates the demand and supply factors behind the contribution of relative food inflation to headline CPI inflation. It concludes that in the absence of a stronger food supply growth response, food inflation may exceed non-food inflation by 21⁄2–3 percentage points per year. The sustainability of a long-term inflation target of 4 percent under India’s recently-adopted flexible inflation targeting framework will depend on enhancing food supply, agricultural market-based pricing, and reducing price distortions. A well-designed cereal buffer stock liquidation policy could also help mitigate food inflation volatility.

Food Inflation in India
Food Inflation in India

Author: Rahul Anand

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-09-24

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13: 1498371558

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Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated reduced-form general equilibrium model of the Indian economy, which incorporates pass-through from headline inflation to core inflation. The results indicate that India's inflation is highly inertial and persistent. Due to second-round effects, the gap between headline inflation and core inflation decreases by about three fourths within one year as core inflation catches up with headline inflation. Large second-round effects stem from several factors, such as the high share of food in household expenditure and the role of food inflation in informing inflation expectations and wage setting. Analysis suggests that in order to durably reduce the current high inflation, the monetary policy stance needs to remain tight for a considerable length of time. In addition, progress on structural reforms to raise potential growth is critical to reduce the burden on monetary policy.

Taming Indian Inflation
Taming Indian Inflation

Author: Mr.Paul Cashin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-02-25

Total Pages: 244

ISBN-13: 1475558376

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High and persistent inflation has presented serious macroeconomic challenges in India in recent years, increasing the country’s domestic and external vulnerabilities. A number of factors underpin India’s high inflation. This book analyzes various facets of Indian inflation—the causes, consequences, and policies being implemented to manage it. Several chapters are devoted to analyzing and managing food inflation, given its significance in driving overall inflation dynamics in India.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy
Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Author: Matthias Kalkuhl

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-04-12

Total Pages: 620

ISBN-13: 3319282018

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This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

What is Responsible for India’s Sharp Disinflation?
What is Responsible for India’s Sharp Disinflation?

Author: Sajjid Chinoy

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-07

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1475533454

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We analyze the dramatic decline in India’s inflation over the last two years using an augmented Phillips Curve approach and quantify the role of different factors. Our results suggest that, contrary to popular perception, the direct role of lower oil prices in India’s disinflation was relatively modest given the limited pass-through into domestic prices. Instead, we find that inflation is a highly persistent process in India, reflecting very adaptive expectations and the backward looking nature of wage and support price-setting. As a consequence, we find that a moderation of expectations, both backward and forward, and a rationalization of Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), explain the bulk of the disinflation over the last two years.

Monetary Policy in India
Monetary Policy in India

Author: Chetan Ghate

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-11-25

Total Pages: 653

ISBN-13: 8132228405

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This book presents research that applies contemporary monetary theory and state-of-the-art econometric methods to the analysis of the monetary and financial aspects of the Indian economy and the impact of monetary policy on economic performance. Indian monetary policy has attracted significant attention from Indian and international macroeconomists over the last several years. Interest in how monetary policy influences economic performance and how monetary policy is conducted in India is growing. The prospects for further financial sector reform and ongoing inflation in India have sparked new interest in the role of money and monetary policy in India among economists, policy makers and students alike. The book should also interest economists outside India because it studies monetary economics in a major emerging market economy and makes advances in the analysis of how financial market imperfections and structural constraints influence the effects of monetary policy.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-11-12

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1616356154

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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

India
India

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-03-02

Total Pages: 95

ISBN-13: 1513524305

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This paper discusses outlook and risk related to the economic development of India. The Indian economy is on a recovery path, supported by a large terms of trade gain (about 21⁄2 percent of GDP) and reduced external vulnerabilities, though downside risks remain. Important economic and structural reforms have been initiated, but further reforms are needed to boost India’s growth potential. Notwithstanding the cyclical pickup, medium-term growth continues to be constrained by supply-side bottlenecks and weaknesses in the corporate and banking sectors. Past fund advice and the authorities’ macroeconomic policies have been broadly aligned, but progress on structural reforms has been partial.

Food and Nutrition Systems in Urban India
Food and Nutrition Systems in Urban India

Author: Neetu Choudhary

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2023-12-18

Total Pages: 177

ISBN-13: 1000605744

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This book explores identity-mediated dynamics of food and nutrition entitlement in urban India analysing concerns around equity, access to food and public health. The issues of disentitlement and identity dynamics when it comes to nutrition and health are more intricate in the urban context, due to a greater population and cultural diversity. While in the global north, urban food planning is increasingly dependent on local government, in developing countries urban nutrition is yet to be considered a serious policy issue. This book, with a disaggregated analysis for urban India and an in-depth case study of Mumbai, examines how malnutrition in India is becoming an urban challenge. It discusses how far caste, religion and migratory identities serve as a source of deprivation and analyses the role of local governance, particularly municipal governance and urban planning, in facilitating the disentitlement. It also offers suggestions for the global south to reverse the stark inequality in its urban centres and address nutrition challenges by developing their own sustainable and resilient food systems. This book is an essential read for scholars and researchers of public health, nutrition, urban sociology, urban planning, development studies, political sociology, public policy and political studies.