Uncertainty in Industrial Practice
Uncertainty in Industrial Practice

Author: Etienne de Rocquigny

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2008-09-15

Total Pages: 364

ISBN-13: 0470770740

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Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.

Managing Risk and Uncertainty
Managing Risk and Uncertainty

Author: Richard Friberg

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2015-11-13

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 0262528193

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A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-04-04

Total Pages: 408

ISBN-13: 3030052524

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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Cellular Manufacturing
Cellular Manufacturing

Author: John X. Wang

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2015-01-14

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 1466577584

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In today's business world, competitiveness defines the industrial leading edge. Organizations and businesses of all sizes are adopting Lean manufacturing practices to increase efficiency and address worries about their bottom lines. In a detailed review of this staple of Lean manufacturing, Cellular Manufacturing: Mitigating Risk and Uncertainty ou

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author: Frank H. Knight

Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.

Published: 2006-11-01

Total Pages: 401

ISBN-13: 1602060053

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A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Author: Terje Aven

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2013-12-17

Total Pages: 152

ISBN-13: 1118763068

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Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Systems Practice: How to Act
Systems Practice: How to Act

Author: Ray Ison

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-08-10

Total Pages: 364

ISBN-13: 1447173511

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This book shows how to do systems thinking and translate that thinking into praxis (theory informed practical action). It will be welcomed by those managing or governing in situations of complexity and uncertainty across all domains of professional and personal life. The development of capabilities to think and act systemically is an urgent priority. Humans are now a force of nature, affecting whole-earth dynamics including the earth's climate - we live in an Anthropocene or Capitalocene and are confronted by the emergence of a ‘post-truth’, ‘big data’ world. What we have developed, organisationally and institutionally, seems very fragile. An imperative exists to recover whatever systemic sensibilities we still retain, to foster systems literacy and to invest in systems thinking in practice capability. This will be needed in future at personal, group, community, regional, national and international levels, all at the same time. Systems Practice: How to Act is structured into four parts. Part I introduces the societal need to invest in systems thinking in practice, in contexts of uncertainty and complexity epitomised by the challenges of responding to human-induced climate change. Part II unpacks what is involved in systems practice by means of a juggler isophor; examining situations where systems thinking offers useful understanding and opportunities for change. Part III identifies the main factors that constrain the uptake of systems practice and makes the case for innovation in practice by means of systemic inquiry, systemic action research and systemic intervention. The book concludes with Part IV, which critically examines how systems practice is, or might be, utilised at different levels from the personal to the societal./div

Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability
Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability

Author: C.F Dietrich

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-07-12

Total Pages: 554

ISBN-13: 1351406280

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All measurements are subject to error because no quantity can be known exactly; hence, any measurement has a probability of lying within a certain range. The more precise the measurement, the smaller the range of uncertainty. Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability is a comprehensive treatment of the statistics and methods of estimating these calibration uncertainties. The book features the general theory of uncertainty involving the combination (convolution) of non-Gaussian, student t, and Gaussian distributions; the use of rectangular distributions to represent systematic uncertainties; and measurable and nonmeasurable uncertainties that require estimation. The author also discusses sources of measurement errors and curve fitting with numerous examples of uncertainty case studies. Many useful tables and computational formulae are included as well. All formulations are discussed and demonstrated with the minimum of mathematical knowledge assumed. This second edition offers additional examples in each chapter, and detailed additions and alterations made to the text. New chapters consist of the general theory of uncertainty and applications to industry and a new section discusses the use of orthogonal polynomials in curve fitting. Focusing on practical problems of measurement, Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability is an invaluable reference tool for R&D laboratories in the engineering/manufacturing industries and for undergraduate and graduate students in physics, engineering, and metrology.

Software Project Effort Estimation
Software Project Effort Estimation

Author: Adam Trendowicz

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-05-07

Total Pages: 483

ISBN-13: 3319036297

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Software effort estimation is one of the oldest and most important problems in software project management, and thus today there are a large number of models, each with its own unique strengths and weaknesses in general, and even more importantly, in relation to the environment and context in which it is to be applied. Trendowicz and Jeffery present a comprehensive look at the principles of software effort estimation and support software practitioners in systematically selecting and applying the most suitable effort estimation approach. Their book not only presents what approach to take and how to apply and improve it, but also explains why certain approaches should be used in specific project situations. Moreover, it explains popular estimation methods, summarizes estimation best-practices, and provides guidelines for continuously improving estimation capability. Additionally, the book offers invaluable insights into project management in general, discussing issues including project trade-offs, risk assessment, and organizational learning. Overall, the authors deliver an essential reference work for software practitioners responsible for software effort estimation and planning in their daily work and who want to improve their estimation skills. At the same time, for lecturers and students the book can serve as the basis of a course in software processes, software estimation, or project management.

Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management
Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management

Author: Terje Aven

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2018-02-20

Total Pages: 359

ISBN-13: 1119317894

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Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.