U. S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change
U. S. Cotton Prices and the World Cotton Market: Forecasting and Structural Change

Author: United States Department of Agriculture

Publisher: CreateSpace

Published: 2015-08-07

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 9781515383161

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This report analyzes recent structural changes in the world cotton industry and develops a statistical model that reflects current drivers of U.S. cotton prices. Legislative changes in 2008 authorized USDA to resume publishing cotton price forecasts for the first time in nearly 80 years. Systematic problems have become apparent in the forecasting models used by USDA and elsewhere, highlighting the need for an updated review of price relationships. A structural break in the U.S. cotton industry occurred in 1999, and world cotton supply has become an important determinant of U.S. cotton prices, along with China's trade and production policy. The model developed here forecasts changes in the U.S. upland cotton farm price based on changes in U.S. cotton supply, the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio (S/U), China's net imports as a share of world consumption, the foreign supply of cotton, and selected farm policy parameters.

Forecasting the Yield and the Price of Cotton
Forecasting the Yield and the Price of Cotton

Author: Henry Ludwell 1869-1958 Moore

Publisher: Legare Street Press

Published: 2023-07-18

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781019491447

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Moore's pioneering work on the economics of cotton production and trade remains a classic of early twentieth-century economic analysis. Using statistical and historical data, Moore presents a rigorous model for predicting the yield and price of cotton, one of the most important commodities of the era. His insights into the dynamics of the cotton market continue to be relevant today for scholars of agricultural economics and business. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.