The Intensive Margin in Trade
The Intensive Margin in Trade

Author: Ana Fernandes

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-12-07

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 1484386175

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The Melitz model highlights the importance of the extensive margin (the number of firms exporting) for trade flows. Using the World Bank’s Exporter Dynamics Database (EDD) featuring firm-level exports from 50 countries, we find that around 50 percent of variation in exports is along the extensive margin—a quantitative victory for the Melitz framework. The remaining 50 percent on the intensive margin (exports per exporting firm) contradicts a special case of Melitz with Pareto-distributed firm productivity, which has become a tractable benchmark. This benchmark model predicts that, conditional on the fixed costs of exporting, all variation in exports across trading partners should occur on the extensive margin. We find that moving from a Pareto to a lognormal distribution allows the Melitz model to match the role of the intensive margin in the EDD. We use likelihood methods and the EDD to estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint lognormal distribution for firm-level productivity, fixed costs and demand shifters, and use “exact hat algebra” to quantify the effects of a decline in trade costs on trade flows and welfare in the estimated model. The welfare effects turn out to be quite close to those in the standard Melitz-Pareto model when we choose the Pareto shape parameter to fit the average trade elasticity implied by our estimated Melitz-lognormal model, although there are significant differences regarding the effects on trade flows.

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis
A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

Author: Marc Bacchetta

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789287038128

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Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Trade Liberalization
Trade Liberalization

Author: Romain Wacziarg

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781788111492

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This compelling two-volume collection presents the major literary contributions to the economic analysis of the consequences of trade liberalization on growth, productivity, labor market outcomes and economic inequality. Examining the classical theories that stress gains from trade stemming from comparative advantage, the selection also comprises more recent theories of imperfect competition, where any potential gains from trade can stem from competitive effects or the international transmission of knowledge. Empirical contributions provide evidence regarding the explanatory power of these various theories, including work on the effects of trade openness on economic growth, wages, and income inequality, as well as evidence on the effects of trade on firm productivity, entry and exit. Prefaced by an original introduction from the editor, the collection will to be an invaluable research resource for academics, practitioners and those drawn to this fascinating topic.

World Development Report 2020
World Development Report 2020

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2019-11-19

Total Pages: 545

ISBN-13: 1464814953

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Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.

Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare
Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare

Author: Parisa Kamali

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-27

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 1513519875

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In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.

Technology and Market Structure
Technology and Market Structure

Author: John Sutton

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2001-01-26

Total Pages: 700

ISBN-13: 9780262692649

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John Sutton sets out a unified theory that encompasses two major approaches to studying market, while generating a series of novel predictions as to how markets evolve. Traditionally, the field of industrial organization has relied on two unrelated theories—the cross-section theory and the growth-of-firms theory—to explain cross-industry differences in concentration and within-industry skewness. The two approaches are based on very different mathematical structures and few researchers have attempted to relate them to each other. In this book, John Sutton unifies the two approaches through a theory that rests on three simple principles. The first two, a "survivor principle" that says that firms will not pursue loss-making strategies, and an "arbitrage principle" that says that if a profitable opportunity is available, some firm will take it, suffice to define a set of possible outcomes. The third, the "symmetry principle," says that the strategy used by a new entrant into any submarket depends neither on the entrants identity nor on its history in other submarkets. This allows researchers to bring together the roles of strategic interactions and of independence effects. The result is that the considerations motivating the cross-section tradition and those motivating the growth-of-firms tradition both drop out within a single game-theoretic model. This book follows Sutton's Sunk Costs and Market Structure, published by MIT Press in 1991.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade
Changing Patterns of Global Trade

Author: Nagwa Riad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-01-15

Total Pages: 87

ISBN-13: 1463973101

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Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

The Effects of U.S. Trade Protection and Promotion Policies
The Effects of U.S. Trade Protection and Promotion Policies

Author: Robert C. Feenstra

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2008-04-15

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 0226239535

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Economists disagree on whether recent U.S. trade policies are harmful or helpful, but they all agree that there is a new trend toward focusing on results-oriented policies in specific markets and with particular trading partners. These twelve essays by leading international economists explore crucial issues in U.S. trade policy today. Topics examined include the markets for automobile and automobile parts in the United States and Japan, the U.S. response to "unfair" trading practices such as dumping, and the effects of industry- and country-specific policies. Examples include high-technology and agricultural industries and off-shore assembly in U.S. border cities. The volume concludes that some policies can act to both protect imports and promote exports, that the threat of protectionist policies can often have effects that are as pronounced as their implementation, and that regulatory policy has as great an impact on trade and investment patterns as does trade policy itself. It will be of crucial interest to international trade economists, policy specialists, and political scientists.

Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms
Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms

Author: Andrew B. Bernard

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines how country, industry and firm characteristics interact in general equilibrium to determine nations' responses to trade liberalization. When firms possess heterogeneous productivity, countries differ in relative factor abundance and industries vary in factor intensity, falling trade costs induce reallocations of resources both within and across industries and countries. These reallocations generate substantial job turnover in all sectors, spur relatively more creative destruction in comparative advantage industries than comparative disadvantage industries, and magnify ex ante comparative advantage to create additional welfare gains from trade. The relative ascendance of high-productivity firms within industries boosts aggregate productivity and drives down consumer prices. In contrast with the neoclassical model, these price declines dampen and can even reverse the real wage losses of scarce factors as countries liberalize.

Trade Costs and Inclusive Growth
Trade Costs and Inclusive Growth

Author: Robert R. Teh

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789287041241

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Trade costs and inclusive growth looks at how implementation of the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) can help to reduce trade costs and promote growth. The publication rings together contributions from ten participants in the WTO Chairs Programme, which supports trade-related activities by academic institutions in developing countries. The book looks into how the Aid for Trade initiative can assist with implementing the TFA, the importance of mainstreaming trade into national development strategies, and the potential impact of the TFA in various regions.