We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for 1 to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities of speculators and hedgers, we find that speculators profit from time series momentum at the expense of hedgers.
The individual investor's comprehensive guide to momentum investing Quantitative Momentum brings momentum investing out of Wall Street and into the hands of individual investors. In his last book, Quantitative Value, author Wes Gray brought systematic value strategy from the hedge funds to the masses; in this book, he does the same for momentum investing, the system that has been shown to beat the market and regularly enriches the coffers of Wall Street's most sophisticated investors. First, you'll learn what momentum investing is not: it's not 'growth' investing, nor is it an esoteric academic concept. You may have seen it used for asset allocation, but this book details the ways in which momentum stands on its own as a stock selection strategy, and gives you the expert insight you need to make it work for you. You'll dig into its behavioral psychology roots, and discover the key tactics that are bringing both institutional and individual investors flocking into the momentum fold. Systematic investment strategies always seem to look good on paper, but many fall down in practice. Momentum investing is one of the few systematic strategies with legs, withstanding the test of time and the rigor of academic investigation. This book provides invaluable guidance on constructing your own momentum strategy from the ground up. Learn what momentum is and is not Discover how momentum can beat the market Take momentum beyond asset allocation into stock selection Access the tools that ease DIY implementation The large Wall Street hedge funds tend to portray themselves as the sophisticated elite, but momentum investing allows you to 'borrow' one of their top strategies to enrich your own portfolio. Quantitative Momentum is the individual investor's guide to boosting market success with a robust momentum strategy.
The investing strategy that famously generates higher returns with substantially reduced risk--presented by the investor who invented it "A treasure of well researched momentum-driven investing processes." Gregory L. Morris, Chief Technical Analyst and Chairman, Investment Committee of Stadion Money Management, LLC, and author of Investing with the Trend Dual Momentum Investing details the author’s own momentum investing method that combines U.S. stock, world stock, and aggregate bond indices--a formula proven to dramatically increase profits while lowering risk. Antonacci reveals how momentum investors could have achieved long-run returns nearly twice as high as the stock market over the past 40 years, while avoiding or minimizing bear market losses--and he provides the information and insight investors need to achieve such success going forward. His methodology is designed to pick up on major changes in relative strength and market trend. Gary Antonacci has over 30 years experience as an investment professional focusing on under exploited investment opportunities. In 1990, he founded Portfolio Management Consultants, which advises private and institutional investors on asset allocation, portfolio optimization, and advanced momentum strategies. He writes and runs the popular blog and website optimalmomentum.com. Antonacci earned his MBA at Harvard.
A one-of-a-kind reference guide covering the behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum and the implementation of momentum trading strategies Market Momentum: Theory and Practice is a thorough, how-to reference guide for a full range of financial professionals and students. It examines the behavioral and statistical causes of market momentum while also exploring the practical side of implementing related strategies. The phenomenon of momentum in finance occurs when past high returns are followed by subsequent high returns, and past low returns are followed by subsequent low returns. Market Momentum provides a detailed introduction to the financial topic, while examining existing literature. Recent academic and practitioner research is included, offering a more up-to-date perspective. What type of book is Market Momentum and how does it serve a range of readers’ interests and needs? A holistic market momentum guide for industry professionals, asset managers, risk managers, firm managers, plus hedge fund and commodity trading advisors Advanced text to help graduate students in finance, economics, and mathematics further develop their funds management skills Useful resource for financial practitioners who want to implement momentum trading strategies Reference book providing behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum Due to claims that the phenomenon of momentum goes against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, behavioral economists have studied the topic in-depth. However, many books published on the subject are written to provide advice on how to make money. In contrast, Market Momentum offers a comprehensive approach to the topic, which makes it a valuable resource for both investment professionals and higher-level finance students. The contributors address momentum theory and practice, while also offering trading strategies that practitioners can study.
This study documents the significant profitability of “time-series momentum” strategies in individual stocks in the US markets from 1927 to 2014 and in international markets since 1975. Unlike cross-sectional momentum, time-series stock momentum performs well following both up- and down-market states, and it does not suffer from January losses and market crashes. An easily formed dual-momentum strategy, combining time-series and cross-sectional momentum, generates striking returns of 1.88% per month. We test both risk based and behavioral models for the existence and durability of time-series momentum and suggest the latter offers unique insights into its continuing factor dominance.
Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012) show that time series momentum delivers a large and significant alpha for a diversified portfolio of international futures contracts. We find that their results are largely driven by volatility-scaling returns (or the so-called risk parity approach to asset allocation) rather than by time series momentum. Without scaling by volatility, time series momentum and a buy-and-hold strategy offer similar cumulative returns, and their alphas are not significantly different. This similarity holds for most sectors and for a combined portfolio of futures contracts. Cross-sectional momentum also offers a higher (similar) alpha than unscaled (scaled) time series momentum.
This study is an exploration of the Indian stock market, focusing on the possible presence of momentum trading. One thing, however, should be noted. While it is true that momentum trading, which tends to generate speculative bubbles, may result in a financial market crash, its nature in contrast might depend on the nature of the economy itself. The study, while exploring the presence and nature of momentum trading on the Indian stock market in recent years, seeks to relate it to significant structural breaks in the Indian or global economy. To be precise, it outlines a potential correlation between the instability in the stock market and the speculative trading on the market, exploring the question of whether it is human psychology that drives financial markets. In the process, the choice of a significant structural break has been obvious: the global financial meltdown of 2007-2008 – a crisis that has often been referred to as the worst ever since the crash of 1929. While analyzing the nature of momentum trading on the Indian stock market with regard to the financial crisis of 2007-08, the study takes into account two major representatives of the market, the BSE (Bombay Stock Index) and NSE (National Stock Index), for the period 2005 to 2012. This study seeks to answer a few important questions. First of all, it tries to unveil the underlying structure of the market. In doing so, it examines the following issues: (i) What was the latent structure of the Indian stock market leading up to the crisis of 2007-08? Does the structure offer insights into designing profitable trading strategies? (ii) Is it possible to construct a profitable portfolio on the Indian stock market? (iii) Is there any profitable trading strategy on the Indian stock market? While exploring these issues, the study delves deeper, breaking the whole period down into two sub-periods, before the crisis of 2008 and after the crisis. The purpose of this division is to determine whether there has been any discernible change in the market structure since the shock.
Although portfolio management didn't change much during the 40 years after the seminal works of Markowitz and Sharpe, the development of risk budgeting techniques marked an important milestone in the deepening of the relationship between risk and asset management. Risk parity then became a popular financial model of investment after the global fina
This is not just another book with yet another trading system. This is a complete guide to developing your own systems to help you make and execute trading and investing decisions. It is intended for everyone who wishes to systematise their financial decision making, either completely or to some degree. Author Robert Carver draws on financial theory, his experience managing systematic hedge fund strategies and his own in-depth research to explain why systematic trading makes sense and demonstrates how it can be done safely and profitably. Every aspect, from creating trading rules to position sizing, is thoroughly explained. The framework described here can be used with all assets, including equities, bonds, forex and commodities. There is no magic formula that will guarantee success, but cutting out simple mistakes will improve your performance. You'll learn how to avoid common pitfalls such as over-complicating your strategy, being too optimistic about likely returns, taking excessive risks and trading too frequently. Important features include: - The theory behind systematic trading: why and when it works, and when it doesn't. - Simple and effective ways to design effective strategies. - A complete position management framework which can be adapted for your needs. - How fully systematic traders can create or adapt trading rules to forecast prices. - Making discretionary trading decisions within a systematic framework for position management. - Why traditional long only investors should use systems to ensure proper diversification, and avoid costly and unnecessary portfolio churn. - Adapting strategies depending on the cost of trading and how much capital is being used. - Practical examples from UK, US and international markets showing how the framework can be used. Systematic Trading is detailed, comprehensive and full of practical advice. It provides a unique new approach to system development and a must for anyone considering using systems to make some, or all, of their investment decisions.
