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Author: Ariel Amir
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2020-12-17
Total Pages: 243
ISBN-13: 1108479529
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAn introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.
Author: Gaurav Garg
Publisher: Gaurav Garg
Published: 2024-08-22
Total Pages: 151
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn a world obsessed with certainty, this book dares to embrace the unknown. "Dancing with Uncertainty" isn't just a catchy title—it's a revolutionary approach to navigating the complexities of modern life. Within these pages, you'll discover how to harness the power of probabilistic thinking to make better decisions, manage risks, and find opportunities where others see only chaos. From the boardroom to the bedroom, from financial investments to personal relationships, this book will transform the way you view the world. Key concepts you'll explore include: The Probabilistic Mindset: Learn to see life as a series of probabilities rather than absolutes. The 60/40 Rule: A practical guide to decision-making in uncertain situations. Expected Value Calculations: Maximize your 'life ROI' by understanding the true value of your choices. The Monte Carlo Method: Simulate multiple futures to prepare for any outcome. Bayesian Thinking: Update your beliefs intelligently as new information comes to light. But this isn't just a dry textbook. It's filled with real-life examples, practical exercises, and even a dash of humor. You'll learn from poker players, stock traders, meteorologists, and everyday people who've used probabilistic thinking to achieve extraordinary results. "In an uncertain world, the only mistake is to be unprepared. This book is your guide to turning uncertainty into your greatest advantage." Whether you're a CEO making high-stakes decisions, a student planning your future, or simply someone looking to navigate life with more confidence, "Dancing with Uncertainty" offers a new lens through which to view the world. So, are you ready to embrace the power of probability? To see opportunities where others see only risk? To dance with uncertainty and lead a richer, more calculated life? Open this book, and take your first step into a larger, more probabilistic world.
Author: Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher: Psychology Press
Published: 2004-06-24
Total Pages: 798
ISBN-13: 113561461X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKLack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Author: Shane Parrish
Publisher: Penguin
Published: 2024-10-15
Total Pages: 209
ISBN-13: 0593719972
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDiscover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Author: Harvard Business Review
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
Published: 2023-01-31
Total Pages: 156
ISBN-13: 1647824478
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTackle complex situations with critical thinking. You're facing a problem at work. There are many ways you can approach the situation, but each comes with its own pros and cons. How do you sort through all the information so that you know you're taking the right path? The answer is in how you think. The HBR Guide to Critical Thinking will help you navigate your most challenging issues, from difficult problems to tough decisions to complex scenarios. By carefully observing the situation, gathering information, inviting other perspectives, and analyzing what's in front of you, you can move forward with confidence while building this crucial leadership skill. You'll learn how to: Question your assumptions Keep an open mind to opposing viewpoints Sidestep cognitive biases Use data—when appropriate Grow comfortable with ambiguity Find innovative and creative solutions Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.
Author: Robert E. Rubin
Publisher: Penguin
Published: 2023-05-16
Total Pages: 337
ISBN-13: 0593491394
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRobert Rubin, former secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares thoughts on decision-making developed over more than six decades in markets, business, government, and politics, and offers readers an astute and original guide for navigating uncertain times In 1958, as a college sophomore, Robert Rubin took a class that changed his life. The class was introduction to philosophy, and the professor, Raphael Demos, instilled in his students an idea that was simple yet profound: There is no such thing as certainty. For Rubin, this led to a critically important question: How can we make sound decisions in a fundamentally uncertain world? While serving in some of the most significant roles in markets, business, and government, Rubin has grappled with that question. Time and again, when faced with a high-stakes decision, he turned to his most trusted tool: a simple yellow legal pad. Rubin’s yellow pad (or more recently, his iPad) became an expression of a larger decision-making philosophy that has both lasted and shaped a lifetime. In The Yellow Pad, Rubin lays out that philosophy with depth and detail, and presents a compelling intellectual framework for confronting some of the most difficult issues we face today. The Yellow Pad contains a former Treasury secretary’s approach to economic policymaking. A former Goldman Sachs senior partner’s approach to personal investing and understanding risk. A former director of the National Economic Council’s approach to managing people in both private- and public-sector organizations. And much more. Yet despite his lifetime of experiences, Rubin remains refreshingly open-minded, interested in exploring ideas rather than promoting ideologies. With its combination of wisdom and relevance, The Yellow Pad is an essential guide for anyone looking to make better decisions in life, work, and public policy.
Author: Ken Manktelow
Publisher: Psychology Press
Published: 2010-10-18
Total Pages: 473
ISBN-13: 1136939091
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis volume is a state-of-the-art survey of the psychology of reasoning, based around, and in tribute to, one of the field’s most eminent figures: Jonathan St B.T. Evans. In this collection of cutting edge research, Evans’ collaborators and colleagues review a wide range of important and developing areas of inquiry. These include biases in thinking, probabilistic and causal reasoning, people’s use of ‘if’ sentences in arguments, the dual-process theory of thought, and the nature of human rationality. These foundational issues are examined from various angles and finally integrated in a concluding panoramic chapter written by Evans himself. The eighteen chapters, all written by leading international researchers, combine state-of the-art research with investigation into the most fundamental questions surrounding human mental life, such as: What is the architecture of the human mind? Are humans rational, and what is the nature of this rationality? How do we think hypothetically? The Science of Reason offers a unique combination of breadth, depth and integrative vision, making it an indispensable resource for researchers and students of human reason.
Author: Michael Strevens
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Published: 2011-09-30
Total Pages: 537
ISBN-13: 0674062574
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWhat does it mean for scientists to truly understand, rather than to merely describe, how the world works? Michael Strevens proposes a novel theory of scientific explanation and understanding that overhauls and augments the familiar causal approach to explanation. What is replaced is the test for explanatorily relevant causal information: Strevens discards the usual criterion of counterfactual dependence in favor of a criterion that turns on a process of progressive abstraction away from a fully detailed, physical causal story. The augmentations include the introduction of a new, non-causal explanatory relevance relation—entanglement—and an independent theory of the role of black-boxing and functional specification in explanation. The abstraction-centered notion of difference-making leads to a rich causal treatment of many aspects of explanation that have been either ignored or handled inadequately by earlier causal approaches, including the explanation of laws and other regularities, with particular attention to the explanation of physically contingent high-level laws, idealization in explanation, and probabilistic explanation in deterministic systems, as in statistical physics, evolutionary biology, and medicine. The result is an account of explanation that has especially significant consequences for the higher-level sciences: biology, psychology, economics, and other social sciences.
Author: Huddleston, R. J.
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Published: 2022-08-05
Total Pages: 801
ISBN-13: 1839101016
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDrawing together international experts on research methods in International Relations (IR), this Handbook answers the complex practical questions for those approaching a new research topic for the first time. Innovative in its approach, it considers the art of IR research as well as the science, offering diverse perspectives on current research methods and emerging developments in the field.
Author: Adam Morton
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2005-06-29
Total Pages: 236
ISBN-13: 1134484305
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Importance of Being Understood is an innovative and thought-provoking exploration of the links between the way we think about each other's mental states and the fundamentally cooperative nature of everyday life. Adam Morton begins with a consideration of 'folk psychology', the tendency to attribute emotions, desires, beliefs and thoughts to human minds. He takes the view that it is precisely this tendency that enables us to understand, predict and explain the actions of others, which in turn helps us to decide on our own course of action. This relection suggests, claims Morton, that certain types of cooperative activity are dependent on everyday psychological understanding conversely, that we act in such a way as to make our actions easily intelligible to others so that we can benefit from being understood. This idea of 'beneficial circularities' is at the core of Morton's investigation of the interdependencies between folk psychology and social behaviour: we understand each other because we have learned to make ourselves intelligible. Using examples of cooperative activities such as car driving and playing tennis, Adam Morton analyses the concepts of belief and simulation, the idea of explanation by motive, and the causal force of psychological explanation. In addition to argument and analysis, Morton also includes more speculative explorations of topics such as moral progress and presents a new point of view on how and why cultures differ. The Importance of Being Understood forges new links between ethics and the philosophy of mind and will be of interest to anyone in either field, as well as developmental psychologists.
