The stand-off across the Straits of Taiwan continues to be one of the most dangerous confrontations in Asia. The technical superiority of the Taiwanese forces has been a major factor in maintaining balance, but as mainland China's armed forces modernize, Taiwan's advantages are being eroded. In response, Taiwan has recently undertaken a major reform of its armed forces. Bringing together a wide range of experts including people who are involved in defence policy making in Taiwan, this book presents a comprehensive analysis of these reforms, and assesses their likely effectiveness. Chapters are devoted to issues including the Chinese threat, the domestic context of reform, the role of the United States and specific defence issues, making the book an invaluable guide to the changes undertaken and underway within Taiwan’s strategic environment. With a foreword by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan's Defense Reformwill be of interest to policy makers and academics working in this vital strategic area.
Today the most dangerous place on earth is arguably the Taiwan Strait, where a war between the United States and China could erupt out of miscalculation, misunderstanding, or accident. How and to what degree Taiwan pursues its own national identity will have profound ramifications in its relationship with China as well as in relations between China and the United States. Events late in 2004 demonstrated the volatility of the situation, as Taiwan's legislative elections unexpectedly preserved a slim majority for supporters of closer relations with China. Beijing, nevertheless, threatened to pass an anti-secession law, apt to revitalize pro-independence forces in Taiwan—and make war more likely. Taking change as a central theme, these essays by prominent scholars and practitioners in the arena of U.S.-Taiwan-Chinese relations combine historical context with timely analysis of an accelerating crisis. The book clarifies historical developments, examines myths about past and present policies, and assesses issues facing contemporary policymakers. Moving beyond simplistic explanations that dominate discussion about the U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship, Dangerous Strait challenges common wisdom and approaches the political, economic, and strategic aspects of the cross-Strait situation anew. The result is a collection that provides fresh and much-needed insights into a complex problem and examines the ways in which catastrophe can be avoided. The essays examine a variety of issues, including the movement for independence and its place in Taiwanese domestic politics; the underlying weaknesses of democracy in Taiwan; and the significance of China and Taiwan's economic interdependence. In the security arena, contributors provide incisive critiques of Taiwan's incomplete military modernization; strains in U.S.-Taiwan relations and their differing interpretations of China's intentions; and the misguided inclination among some U.S. policymakers to abandon Washington's traditional policy of strategic ambiguity.
This is the first explanation and evaluation of Taiwan’s defence forces and infrastructure. It examines not only Taiwan’s armed forces, but also its Ministry of National Defence, personnel issues, and civil-military relations. This book provides crucial base-line data and evaluation of one of the major participants in an ongoing crisis across the Taiwan Strait that has the potential of involving China and the United States in armed conflict. It examines the danger of a possibly nuclear conflict between China and the United States which would seriously disrupt all of East Asia. It also shows how Taiwan’s defence policies and actions do not match the threat - Taipei needs to develop and pursue realistic policies. This is essential reading for all students of East Asian security and Sino-American relations and of international and security studies in general.
Recent concern about mainland China's intentions towards Taiwan, and more general concern about the risk of instability in the region, has led to growing interest in Taiwan's military strategy, in how Taiwan perceives threats to itself, and in how the Taiwanese military are reacting to these perceived threats. This book, which includes contributions by leading Taiwanese military thinkers, explores current military strategy in Taiwan and how it is evolving. It discusses Taiwan's military modernisation, and the implications of the recent defeat after fifty years in power of the Kuomintang Party, implications which include a move away from an authoritarian garrison state culture, and the beginnings of a more open debate about defence. The book concludes with an overall appraisal of Taiwan's defence vision and makes recommendations on how Taiwan's defence might be enhanced.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has embarked on its most wide-ranging and ambitious restructuring since 1949, including major changes to most of its key organizations. The restructuring reflects the desire to strengthen PLA joint operation capabilities- on land, sea, in the air, and in the space and cyber domains. The reforms could result in a more adept joint warfighting force, though the PLA will continue to face a number of key hurdles to effective joint operations, Several potential actions would indicate that the PLA is overcoming obstacles to a stronger joint operations capability. The reforms are also intended to increase Chairman Xi Jinping's control over the PLA and to reinvigorate Chinese Communist Party (CCP) organs within the military. Xi Jinping's ability to push through reforms indicates that he has more authority over the PLA than his recent predecessors. The restructuring could create new opportunities for U.S.-China military contacts.
Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers," warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history. In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. "The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence-without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan." "We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland." "If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios," the authors add, "they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress." But, they observe, "the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity. It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it." Proposing "a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years," the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan's status; work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. "The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president," the authors conclude.
This is a new analysis of the key issues facing Chinese policy makers in their approach towards Taiwan. This is one of the most tense and potentially explosive relationships in world politics. This book explains succinctly the impetus, the methods and the consequences if China is to use force, a prospect that has become greater following the return of President Chen Shui-bian to power in Taiwan for a second term in 2004. If China Attacks Taiwan shows how in reality there can be no real winner in such an eventuality and how the consequences would be dire not just for Taiwan and China, but East Asia as a whole. Whether China will use force depends ultimately on how its policy making apparatus assess potential US intervention, whether its armed forces can subdue Taiwan and counter US military involvement, as well as on its assessment of the likely consequences. Given the extremely high probability of American involvement this volume appeals to not only scholars and students working on China, its foreign policy and the security and prosperity of East Asia, but also to policy makers and journalists interested in China’s rise and its defense policy, Taiwan’s security and development, regional stability as well as US policy toward China and the East Asia region generally. This book is essential for understanding China’s efforts to achieve a ‘peaceful rise’, which requires it to transform itself into a global power not by the actual use of force but by diplomacy backed up by rapidly expanding military power. This book is an excellent resource for all students and scholars of military and security studies, Asian (China/Taiwan) studies and international relations
