This report summarizes presentations and discussions at the Workshop on the Social Processes Underlying Fertility Change in Developing Countries, organized by the Committee on Population of the National Research Council (NRC) in Washington, D.C., January 29-30, 1998. Fourteen papers were presented at the workshop; they represented both theoretical and empirical perspectives and shed new light on the role that diffusion processes may play in fertility transition. These papers served as the basis for the discussion that is summarized in this report.
This volume is part of an effort to review what is known about the determinants of fertility transition in developing countries and to identify lessons that might lead to policies aimed at lowering fertility. It addresses the roles of diffusion processes, ideational change, social networks, and mass communications in changing behavior and values, especially as related to childbearing. A new body of empirical research is currently emerging from studies of social networks in Asia (Thailand, Taiwan, Korea), Latin America (Costa Rica), and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Malawi, Ghana). Given the potential significance of social interactions to the design of effective family planning programs in high-fertility settings, efforts to synthesize this emerging body of literature are clearly important.
A history of the World Health Organization, covering major achievements in its seventy years while also highlighting the organization's internal tensions. This account by three leading historians of medicine examines how well the organization has pursued its aim of everyone, everywhere attaining the highest possible level of health.
The implementation of family planning programs has been the principal population policy instrument in the developing world over the past few decades. This paper reviews that controversy over the role these programs have played in reducing fertility. Opposing views on a number of contentious issues (for example, the significance of unmet need and unwanted fertility) are summarized and a consensus position is presented. Surprisingly, recent estimates of the fertility reductions achievable through the implementation of strong family planning programs differ only modestly--from 1 to 1.4 births per woman. Since only a small proportion of countries have implemented strong programs, the (unweighted) average impact of programs in 1985-90 is estimated at only 0.33 births per woman. However, the (weighted) average, which gives the program impact for the developing world as a whole, is estimated at 0.96 births per woman in the late 1980s. This suggests that programs have been responsible for about 43% of the fertility decline in the developing world between 1960-65 and 1985-90.
From the perspective of human society, one of the most significant occurrences of the twentieth century has been the demographic transition —- the movement from tragic and wastefully high death and birth rates to low rates in many countries. Many other countries, however, are still at only the early or intermediate stages of this process. In these countries, means need to be found to accelerate the transition. This book brings new evidence to bear on aspects of the demographic trasition, with contributions from leading demographers, anthropologists, sociologists, and historians. The book ranges widely over the history and current experience of both developed and developing countries, with particular emphasis on Asia and Africa. The new field of anthropological demography is strongly represented, with contributions challenging much conventional wisdom.
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
The main contents are key findings and messages regarding the relationship between contraceptive use and fertility, for 195 countries or areas of the world. These highlights will draw mainly from World Population Prospects 2019, and model-based estimates and projections of family planning indicators 2019. Policy-related implications of and responses to trends in family planning and fertility will be integrated throughout the text. In particular, these issues are of relevance for contextualizing Sustainable Development Goals 3.7.1. and 3.7.2. and the achievement of the 2030 Agenda.
The striking upsurge in population growth rates in developing countries at the close of World War II gained force during the next decade. From the 1950s to the 1970s, scholars and advocacy groups publicized the trend and drew troubling conclusions about its economic and ecological implications. Private educational and philanthropic organizations, government, and international organizations joined in the struggle to reduce fertility. Three decades later this movement has seen changes beyond anyone's most optimistic dreams, and global demographic stabilization is expected in this century. The Global Family Planning Revolution preserves the remarkable record of this success. Its editors and authors offer more than a historical record. They disccuss important lessons for current and future initiatives of the international community. Some programs succeeded while others initially failed, and the analyses provide valuable guidance for emerging health-related policy objectives and responses to global challenges.
Confounding all conventional wisdom, the fertility rate in the Islamic Republic of Iran fell from around 7.0 births per woman in the early 1980s to 1.9 births per woman in 2006. That this, the largest and fastest fall in fertility ever recorded, should have occurred in one of the world’s few Islamic Republics demands explanation. This book, based upon a decade of research is the first to attempt such an explanation. The book documents the progress of the fertility decline and displays its association with social and economic characteristics. It addresses an explanation of the phenomenal fall of fertility in this Islamic context by considering the relevance of standard theories of fertility transition. The book is rich in data as well as the application of different demographic methods to interpret the data. All the available national demographic data are used in addition to two major surveys conducted by the authors. Demographic description is preceded by a socio-political history of Iran in recent decades, providing a context for the demographic changes. The authors conclude with their views on the importance of specific socio-economic and political changes to the demographic transition. Their concluding arguments suggest continued low fertility in Iran. The book is recommended to not only demographers, social scientists, and gender specialists, but also to policy makers and those who are interested in social and demographic changes in Iran and other Islamic countries in the Middle East. It is also a useful reference for demography students and researchers who are interested in applying fertility theories in designing surveys and analysing data.
