The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited

The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited

Author: Yanliang Miao

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-03-01

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1451963750

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There is good reason and much evidence to suggest that the real exchange rate matters for economic growth, but why? The "Washington Consensus" (WC) view holds that real exchange rate misalignment implies macroeconomic imbalances that are themselves bad for growth. In contrast, Rodrik (2008) argues that undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity is good for growth because it promotes the otherwise inefficiently small tradable sector. Our main result is that WC and the Rodrik views of the role of misalignment in growth are observationally equivalent for the main growth regressions he reports. There is an identification problem: Determinants of misalignment are also likely to be independent drivers of growth, and these types of growth regressions are hard-pressed to disentangle the different channels. However, we confirm that not only are overvaluations bad but undervaluations are also good for growth, a result squarely consistent with the Rodrik story but one that requires some gymnastics from the WC viewpoint.


Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?

Author: Carlos Goncalves

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-12-21

Total Pages: 15

ISBN-13: 148433602X

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The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper, we provide evidence suggesting that the association between exchange rate misalignment and growth for a broad panel of countries is very weak. Controlling for country fixed effects, time effects and initial GDP, a more depreciated currency is associated with higher growth if one does not exclude outliers. However, this positive association always vanishes after controling for the savings rate. Importantly, this applies for both a large panel of countries and for the emerging economies subsample.


Fear of Appreciation

Fear of Appreciation

Author: Eduardo Levy-Yeyati

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13:

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Abstract: In recent years the term "fear of floating" has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that, while officially flexible, in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations. However, the data reveals that in most cases (and increasingly so in the 2000s) intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations, often motivated by the neo-mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries. As a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise, the authors examine whether this "fear of appreciation" has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies. The authors show that depreciated exchange rates appear to induce higher growth, but that the effect, rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view, works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation.


The Chicago Plan Revisited

The Chicago Plan Revisited

Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-08-01

Total Pages: 71

ISBN-13: 1475505523

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At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.


Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange Rate Economics

Author: Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 1134838220

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''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""


The First Export Era Revisited

The First Export Era Revisited

Author: Sandra Kuntz-Ficker

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-10-19

Total Pages: 363

ISBN-13: 3319623400

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This book challenges the wide-ranging generalizations that dominate the literature on the impact of export-led growth upon Latin America during the first export era. The contributors to this volume contest conventional approaches, stemming from structuralism and dependency theory, which portray a rather negative view of the impact of nineteenth-century globalization upon Latin America. It has been considered that, as a result of the role of Latin American countries as providers of raw materials produced in enclaves dominated by foreign capital, their participation in the world economy has had adverse consequences for their long-term development. This volume addresses a representative sample of countries with varied initial conditions and resource endowments, a diverse productive specialization, as well as different degrees of integration to the world economy. This allows a direct comparison among the different experiences within the region, which in turn enables a more nuanced understanding of the contribution of exports to economic growth and economic modernization. Seven national case studies are presented – Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Mexico and Bolivia – which offer an insight into the successes of a region traditionally viewed as disadvantaged by globalization and export-led growth. Winner of the Vicens Vives prize for the best economic history book granted by the Spanish Economic History Association.


Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Author: Swarnali Ahmed

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-30

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1513560972

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This paper analyzes how the formation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has affected the exchange rate elasticity of exports. Using a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, we first find some suggestive evidence that the elasticity of real manufacturing exports to the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has decreased over time. We then examine whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of GVC integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final good exports. In line with this intuition, we find evidence that GVC participation reduces the REER elasticity of manufacturing exports by 22 percent, on average.


Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1995-12-01

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1451855753

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The paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries during 1981-92. The results indicate that (i) an increase in private investment has a relatively large positive impact on per capita growth; (ii) growth is stimulated by public policies that lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP (without reducing government investment), reduce the rate of inflation, maintain external competitiveness, promote structural reforms, encourage human capital development, and slow population growth; and (iii) convergence of per capita income occurs after controlling for human capital development and public policies.


Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation

Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation

Author: Keyra Primus

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-16

Total Pages: 49

ISBN-13: 1475536771

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Managing resource revenues is a critical policy issue for small open resource-rich countries. This paper uses an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the transmission of resource price shocks and a shock to resource production in the Trinidad and Tobago economy. It also applies alternative fiscal rules to determine the optimal allocation of resource windfalls between spending today and saving in a sovereign wealth fund. The results show that spending all the resource windfall on consumption and investment creates more volatility and amplifies Dutch disease effects, when compared to the case where all the excess revenues are saved. Also, neither a policy of full spending nor full saving of the surplus revenue inflows is optimal if the government is concerned about both household welfare and fiscal stability. In order to minimize deviations from both objectives, the optimal fiscal response suggests that a larger fraction of the resource windfalls should be saved.


Exchange-rate Dynamics

Exchange-rate Dynamics

Author: Martin D. D. Evans

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781283009164

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Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces.