The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

Author: Michal Andrle

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-01-16

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1484390040

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This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields, sourced from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The appraised value of corporate earnings can point in real time at periods where market prices are deviating from valuations implied by expected earnings and interest rates. Market participants' forecasts seem to interpret most of the earnings fluctuations as permanent, underestimating the cyclical fluctuations The over-reaction to transitory shocks and changes in long-term outlook leads to swings in the valuation, in line with swings in the observed market prices.


The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

Author: Michal Andrle

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-01-16

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1484395085

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This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields, sourced from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The appraised value of corporate earnings can point in real time at periods where market prices are deviating from valuations implied by expected earnings and interest rates. Market participants' forecasts seem to interpret most of the earnings fluctuations as permanent, underestimating the cyclical fluctuations The over-reaction to transitory shocks and changes in long-term outlook leads to swings in the valuation, in line with swings in the observed market prices.


Valuation Approaches and Metrics

Valuation Approaches and Metrics

Author: Aswath Damodaran

Publisher: Now Publishers Inc

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 102

ISBN-13: 1601980140

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Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Beyond Earnings

Beyond Earnings

Author: David A. Holland

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2017-12-04

Total Pages: 362

ISBN-13: 1119440521

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Beyond Earnings is targeted at investors, financial professionals, and students who want to improve their ability to analyze financial statements, forecast cash flows, and ultimately value a company. The authors demonstrate that reported earnings are easily gamed by accounting shenanigans and reveal how commonly used profitability measures such as return on equity can be misleading. Because earnings and P/E ratios are too unreliable for valuation, this book takes you beyond earnings and shows you how to apply the HOLT CFROI and Economic Profit framework in a step-by-step manner. A better measure of profitability results in improved capital allocation decisions and fundamental valuations. This ground-breaking book offers the first practical in-depth discussion of how profitability and growth fade, and shows how to put this information to work right away. The authors introduce their trailblazing Fundamental Pricing Model which includes fade as an adjustable value driver and can be used to value the impact of business model disruption. As the authors explain, the key to superior stock picking is understanding the expectations embedded in a stock’s price and having a clear view of whether the company can beat those expectations. The HOLT framework has been rigorously field tested for over 40 years by global investment professionals to help them make better stock picks and by corporate managers to understand the expectations embedded in their stock price. Beyond Earnings is an indispensable guide for investors who want to improve their odds of outperforming the competition.


Investment Management: Revised Edition (2020)

Investment Management: Revised Edition (2020)

Author: R.B. Maheshwari

Publisher: SBPD Publishing House

Published: 2020-05-15

Total Pages: 177

ISBN-13: 935047607X

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Who can buy? Students pursuing B.Com, BBA, M.Com,MBA and other commerce and professional courses. It is according to the latest syllabus of various universities. Investment management has been presented with all the modern refinements in a simple and lucid style. Emphasis has been made on thorough explanation, discussion and critical examination of the various concepts and theories. Extensive use of tables, diagrams and simple mathematical equation, etc. has been done to make the explanation systematic, logical and meaningful. Latest developments which have taken place in the field of investment management theory has been made to incorporate in the book. An important feature of this book is that important points to remember have been given in the form of boxes which exhibit them at a glance. Important questions asked in the examinations conducted by various universities and professional institutes have been given at the end of each chapter. The book will be of immense use and help to the students preparing for examinations.


TOPCIMA Paper T4 TEST OF PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCE IN MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING Study Text for 2011-2012

TOPCIMA Paper T4 TEST OF PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCE IN MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING Study Text for 2011-2012

Author: BPP Learning Media

Publisher: BPP Learning Media

Published: 2011-08-01

Total Pages: 573

ISBN-13: 0751796204

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BPP Learning Media's Study Text for TOPCIMA will help you pass CIMA's Test of Professional Competence in Management Accounting case study exam. In preparing the Text we have taken note of past papers, questions put to the examiners, the assessment methodology and previous case study exams.The key to the case is to prepare and to practise. Prepare by working through this Study Text before CIMA issues the pre-seen data. Later, practise with the BPP Learning Media TOPCIMA Toolkit that is written around the real pre-seen data. The Toolkit contains analyses and exercises to get you thinking, as well as a number of 'mock' unseens to get you ready for the real thing


Contrarian Investment Strategies

Contrarian Investment Strategies

Author: David Dreman

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2012-01-10

Total Pages: 498

ISBN-13: 0743297962

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Introduces important new findings in psychology to demonstrate why most investment strategies are flawed, outlining atypical strategies designed to prevent over- and under-valuations while crash-proofing a portfolio.