As Bolivia reels from the collapse of the government in November 2019, a wave of social protests, and now the impact of Covid-19, this book asks: where next for Bolivia? After almost 14 years in power, the government of Bolivia’s first indigenous president collapsed in 2019 amidst widescale protest and allegations of electoral fraud. The contested transitional government that emerged was quickly struck by the impacts of the Covid-19 public health crisis. This book reflects on this critical moment in Bolivia’s development from the perspectives of politics, the economy, the judiciary and the environment. It asks what key issues emerged during Evo Morales’s administration and what are the main challenges awaiting the next government in order to steer the country through a new and uncertain road ahead. As the world considers what the ultimate legacy of Morales’s left-wing social experiment will be, this book will be of great interest to researchers across the fields of Latin American studies, development, politics, and economics, as well as to professionals active in the promotion of development in the country and the region.
Political Crises, Social Conflict and Economic Development is a rare attempt to undertake comparative political economy analysis of the Andean region and thus represents a welcome contribution. . . It is clearly written and will engage scholars interested in Latin America from a wide range of disciplines. Jonathan di John, Journal of Agrarian Change This collection of essays on the political economy of the Andean region goes to the heart of the struggle these smaller economies face in completing crucial reforms and achieving higher growth. Andrés Solimano has brought together the best and the brightest talent from each country, the result being the most compelling analysis ever of how enclave development and a historical dependence on primary exports renders these countries distinctly Andean. As the essays argue, the political solutions and economic remedies must address this phenomenon, rather than mimicking those strategies of the larger emerging market countries in the region. Carol Wise, University of Southern California, US The contributors to this authoritative volume analyze the impact of political crises and social conflict on economic performance in the Andean region of Latin America. The blend of theory and case studies is also relevant for understanding other complex societies in the developing world and transition economies. The book provides illuminating insights on how to understand, and survive, the complicated interactions between volatile politics, unstable democracies, violence, social inequality and uneven economic performance. Recent political economy theories are combined with valuable quantitative and qualitative information on presidential crises, breakdowns of democracy, constitutional reforms, quality of institutions, and social inequality and exclusion to understand actual country realities. Part I provides the conceptual framework and a regional perspective of the book. Part II contains five political economy country studies Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela written by leading scholars in the field and former senior policymakers, including a former President. Together, the chapters highlight the detrimental effects of political instability and social conflict on economic growth and stability, as well as the feedback effects from poor economic performance on political instability and institutional fragility. The country studies warn that narrow economic reforms that do not pay adequate attention to politics, institutions and social structures are bound to fail in bringing lasting prosperity and stability to complex societies. Examining new and rich information on episodes of political turmoil, military interventions, forced presidential resignations, constitutional reforms and social uprisings, this book will be required reading for all those interested in the interface of politics and economic development.
For dozens of developing countries, the financial upheavals of the 1980s have set back economic development by a decade or more. Poverty in those countries have intensified as they struggle under the burden of an enormous external debt. In 1988, more than six years after the onset of the crisis, almost all the debtor countries were still unable to borrow in the international capital markets on normal terms. Moreover, the world financial system has been disrupted by the prospect of widespread defaults on those debts. Because of the urgency of the present crisis, and because similar crises have recurred intermittently for at least 175 years, it is important to understand the fundamental features of the international macroeconomy and global financial markets that have contributed to this repeated instability. Developing Country Debt and the World Economy contains nontechnical versions of papers prepared under the auspices of the project on developing country debt, sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The project focuses on the middle-income developing countries, particularly those in Latin America and East Asia, although many lessons of the study should apply as well to other, poorer debtor countries. The contributors analyze the crisis from two perspectives, that of the international financial system as a whole and that of individual debtor countries. Studies of eight countries—Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Korea, and Turkey—explore the question of why some countries succumbed to serious financial crises while other did not. Each study was prepared by a team of two authors—a U.S.-based research and an economist from the country under study. An additional eight papers approach the problem of developing country debt from a global or "systemic" perspective. The topics they cover include the history of international sovereign lending and previous debt crises, the political factors that contribute to poor economic policies in many debtor nations, the role of commercial banks and the International Monetary Fund during the current crisis, the links between debt in developing countries and economic policies in the industrialized nations, and possible new approaches to the global management of the crisis.
Evo Morales rode to power on a wave of popular mobilizations against the neoliberal policies enforced by his predecessors. Yet many of his economic policies bare striking resemblance to the status quo he was meant to displace. Based in part on dozens of interviews with leading Bolivian activists, Jeff Webber examines the contradictions of Morales' first term in office.
A major, new, and comprehensive look at six decades of macroeconomic policies across the region What went wrong with the economic development of Latin America over the past half-century? Along with periods of poor economic performance, the region’s countries have been plagued by a wide variety of economic crises. This major new work brings together dozens of leading economists to explore the economic performance of the ten largest countries in South America and of Mexico. Together they advance the fundamental hypothesis that, despite different manifestations, these crises all have been the result of poorly designed or poorly implemented fiscal and monetary policies. Each country is treated in its own section of the book, with a lead chapter presenting a comprehensive database of the country’s fiscal, monetary, and economic data from 1960 to 2017. The chapters are drawn from one-day academic conferences—hosted in all but one case, in the focus country—with participants including noted economists and former leading policy makers. Cowritten with Nobel Prize winner Thomas J. Sargent, the editors’ introduction provides a conceptual framework for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy in countries around the world, particularly those less developed. A final chapter draws conclusions and suggests directions for further research. A vital resource for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of economics and for economic researchers and policy makers, A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017 goes further than any book in stressing both the singularities and the similarities of the economic histories of Latin America’s largest countries. Contributors: Mark Aguiar, Princeton U; Fernando Alvarez, U of Chicago; Manuel Amador, U of Minnesota; Joao Ayres, Inter-American Development Bank; Saki Bigio, UCLA; Luigi Bocola, Stanford U; Francisco J. Buera, Washington U, St. Louis; Guillermo Calvo, Columbia U; Rodrigo Caputo, U of Santiago; Roberto Chang, Rutgers U; Carlos Javier Charotti, Central Bank of Paraguay; Simón Cueva, TNK Economics; Julián P. Díaz, Loyola U Chicago; Sebastian Edwards, UCLA; Carlos Esquivel, Rutgers U; Eduardo Fernández Arias, Peking U; Carlos Fernández Valdovinos (former Central Bank of Paraguay); Arturo José Galindo, Banco de la República, Colombia; Márcio Garcia, PUC-Rio; Felipe González Soley, U of Southampton; Diogo Guillen, PUC-Rio; Lars Peter Hansen, U of Chicago; Patrick Kehoe, Stanford U; Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, Bolivian Catholic U; Joaquín Marandino, U Torcuato Di Tella; Alberto Martin, U Pompeu Fabra; Cesar Martinelli, George Mason U; Felipe Meza, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México; Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, U Torcuato Di Tella; Gabriel Oddone, U de la República; Daniel Osorio, Banco de la República; José Peres Cajías, U of Barcelona; David Perez-Reyna, U de los Andes; Fabrizio Perri, Minneapolis Fed; Andrew Powell, Inter-American Development Bank; Diego Restuccia, U of Toronto; Diego Saravia, U de los Andes; Thomas J. Sargent, New York U; José A. Scheinkman, Columbia U; Teresa Ter-Minassian (formerly IMF); Marco Vega, Pontificia U Católica del Perú; Carlos Végh, Johns Hopkins U; François R. Velde, Chicago Fed; Alejandro Werner, IMF.
Financial crises are traditionally analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts remains both under-emphasized and limited to isolated episodes. This paper examines the political economy of financial policy during ten of the most infamous financial booms and busts since the 18th century, and presents consistent evidence of pro-cyclical regulatory policies by governments. Financial booms, and risk-taking during these episodes, were often amplified by political regulatory stimuli, credit subsidies, and an increasing light-touch approach to financial supervision. The regulatory backlash that ensues from financial crises can only be understood in the context of the deep political ramifications of these crises. Post-crisis regulations do not always survive the following boom. The interplay between politics and financial policy over these cycles deserves further attention. History suggests that politics can be the undoing of macro-prudential regulations.
Why is there a disparity in the levels of technical and institutional capacity of national statistical offices (NSOs) in the Latin American and Caribbean region? There is a consensus about the importance of having up-to-date and quality official statistics. The data from censuses, household surveys, and administrative records are an essential input for decision-making, and for the design, implementation, and evaluation of public policies in a country. However, this recognition of the value of statistics does not necessarily translate into greater support for the institutions responsible for their production. To understand the disparity in the capacity of NSOs, the publication provides an innovative approach: it uses the theoretical framework of the study of State capacity, and it develops a methodological framework to compare the political economy factors that influence statistical capacity, through case studies in ten countries of the region: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. Additionally, the publication offers a series of recommendations to strengthen the capacity of NSOs in the region, which include the implementation of institutional reforms to modernize the legal frameworks that govern NSOs in order to grant them more autonomy and allow them to assume a coordinating role of the national statistical system; the greater use of administrative records; the promotion of a dialogue between the NSOs and the community of data users; the establishment of links with non-governmental and international actors; and adherence to international standards and best practices for the production and dissemination of official statistics.
Why has the economy of Latin America responded more positively than Asia, Europe or the United States after being hit by the recent global financial crisis? Three years after the worst of the crisis, Latin America's GDP is 25 percent higher than its precrisis level. José De Gregorio, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile from 2007 to 2011, tells the story of how Latin America has responded to the crisis with a perspective that only an insider can have. De Gregorio focuses on the seven largest economies of the region, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela (90 percent of the region's output). He argues that Latin America was resilient because of good macroeconomic policies, strong financial systems, and "a bit of luck."
