The aim of this book, Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis, is to describe leading research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. Its purpose is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess new telecommunications products and how new analytic techniques can better address existing products. The research presented focuses on new products such as Internet access and additional lines and new techniques such as hazard modeling, adaptive forecasting and neural networks. The scope of this volume includes new telecommunications products, new analytical techniques, and a review of market changes in the US and other countries. Some of the most critical questions facing the industry are addressed here, such as the impact of competition, customer churn, rate re-balancing, and early assessment of new products. The research includes a variety of different countries, products and analytic tools.
David O. Loomis Illinois State University The explosive growth of the Internet has caught most industry experts off guard. While data communications was expected to be the "wave of the future," few industry observers foresaw how rapid the change in focus from voice communications towards data would be. Understanding the data communications revolution has become an urgent priority for many in the telecommunications industry. Demand analysis and forecasting are critical tools to understanding these trends for both Internet access and Internet backbone service. Businesses have led residential customers in the demand for data services, but residential demand is currently increasing exponentiall y. Even as business demand for data communications is becoming better understood, residential broadband access demand is still largely unexplored. Cable modems and ADSL appear to be the current residential broadband choices yet demand elasticities and econometric model-based forecasts for these services are not currently available. The responsiveness of customers to price and income changes and customer's perceptions of the tradeoff in product characteristics between cable modems and ADSL is largely unknown. Demand for Internet access is derived from the demand for applications which utilize this access; access is not demanded independent of its usage. Thus it is important to understand Internet applications in order to understand the demand for access.
David O. Loomis Illinois State University The explosive growth of the Internet has caught most industry experts off guard. While data communications was expected to be the "wave of the future," few industry observers foresaw how rapid the change in focus from voice communications towards data would be. Understanding the data communications revolution has become an urgent priority for many in the telecommunications industry. Demand analysis and forecasting are critical tools to understanding these trends for both Internet access and Internet backbone service. Businesses have led residential customers in the demand for data services, but residential demand is currently increasing exponentiall y. Even as business demand for data communications is becoming better understood, residential broadband access demand is still largely unexplored. Cable modems and ADSL appear to be the current residential broadband choices yet demand elasticities and econometric model-based forecasts for these services are not currently available. The responsiveness of customers to price and income changes and customer's perceptions of the tradeoff in product characteristics between cable modems and ADSL is largely unknown. Demand for Internet access is derived from the demand for applications which utilize this access; access is not demanded independent of its usage. Thus it is important to understand Internet applications in order to understand the demand for access.
This volume grew out of a conference organized by James Alleman and Paul Rappoport, conducted on October 10, 2011 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in honor of the work of Lester D. Taylor, whose pioneering work in demand and market analysis has had profound implications on research across a wide spectrum of industries. In his Prologue, Eli M. Noam notes that demand analysis in the information sector must recognize the “public good” characteristics of media products and networks, while taking into account the effects of interdependent user behavior; the strong cross-elasticities in a market; as well as the phenomenon of supply creating its own demand. The second Prologue, by Timothy Tardiff and Daniel Levy, focuses more specifically on Taylor’s body of work, in particular its practical applications and usefulness in analyses of, and practices within, the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector (known in Europe and elsewhere as the Telecommunications, Media, and Technology (TMT) sector). The remainder of the book is organized into four parts: Advances in Theory; Empirical Applications; Evidence-Based Policy Applications; and a final Conclusion. The book closes with an Appendix by Sharon Levin and Stanford Levin detailing Taylor’s contributions using bibliometrics. Not only featuring chapters from distinguished scholars in economics, applied sciences, and technology, this volume includes two contributions directly from Lester Taylor, providing unique insight into economics from a lifetime in the field. “What a worthy book! Every applied researcher in communications encounters Lester Taylor’s work. Many empirical exercises in communications can trace their roots to Taylor’s pioneering research and his thoughtful leadership. This book assembles an impressive set of contributors and contributions to honor Taylor. No surprise, the collection extends far and wide into many of the core topics of communications and media markets. The emphasis is where it should be–on important and novel research questions informed by useful data. —Shane Greenstein, Professor of Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University “For more than 40 years, Lester Taylor has been a leader in the application of consumer modeling, econometric techniques and microeconomic data to understand residential and business user behavior in telecommunications markets. During that time, he inspired a cadre of students and colleagues who applied this potent combination to address critical corporate and regulatory issues arising in the telecommunications sector. This volume collects the recent product of many of these same researchers and several other devotees who go beyond empirical analysis of fixed line service by extending Prof. Taylor’s approach to the next wave of services and technologies. These contributions, including two new papers by Prof. Taylor, offer an opportunity for the next generation to learn from his work as it grapples with the pressing issues of consumer demand in the rapidly evolving digital economy.” — Glenn Woroch, Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
There is widespread concern in the telecommunications industry that public policy may be impeding the continued development of the Internet into a high-speed communications network. In the absence of ubiquitous, high-speed ¡°broadband¡± Internet connections for residential and small-business customers, the demand for IT equipment and new Internet service applications may stagnate. Broadband policy is controversial in large part because of the differences in the regulatory regimes faced by different types of carriers. Cable television companies face neither retail price regulation of their cable modem services nor any requirements to make their facilities available to competitors. Local telephone companies, on the other hand, face both retail price regulation for their DSL service and a requirement imposed by the 1996 Telecommunications Act that they ¡°unbundle¡± their network facilities and lease them to rivals. Finally, new entrants are largely unregulated, but many rely on facilities leased from the incumbent telephone companies at regulated rates to connect to their customers. This asymmetric regulation is the focus of this volume, in which telecommunications scholars address the public policy issues that have arisen over the deployment of new high-speed telecommunications services. Robert W. Crandall is a senior fellow in the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution. His previous books include (with Martin Cave) Telecommunications Liberalization on Two Sides of the Atlantic (2001) and (with Leonard Waverman) Who Pays for Universal Service? (Brookings 2000). James H. Alleman is an associate professor in interdisciplinary telecommunications at the College of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Colorado, on leave at Columbia University.
There is a growing body of work examining the ‘consequences’, or more accurately the inter-relationships between information and communications technologies (ICTs) and society at the microsocial (individual, household) level. The vast majority of this work has so far been focused on the US and the subsequent publications have consequently provided predominantly US-centred analyses. This book will re-dress this balance by providing analyses of the situation in Europe and is associated states and placing the analyses in the context of both European and International research and policy debates. The book uses data from a range of European countries as well as comparisons with Asia and the USA. Students and academics from a range of disciplines including sociology, business and management and new media will find this book to be a valuable addition to their reading lists.
The European Commission and its member states, along with many others, are wrestling with the problem of how to implement the scheduled liberalization of the postal sector while maintaining the universal service obligation. This book addresses some of these concerns. It is comprised of original essays chosen from among several dozen presented at the 13th Conference on Postal and Delivery Economics, which was held in Antwerp, Belgium, in June, 2005.
Based on firsthand information obtained from interviews with senior figures in the Chinese telecommunications industry, this book presents a unique review and analysis of the evolution of Chinese telecommunications policy. It analyses the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing new entrants, issues of ownership and interconnection, the broad economic background of 3G licensing, and the significant implications of China's accession to the WTO. These are fully analyzed within the context of the unfolding Chinese regulatory system.
Worldwide, there is considerable interest in postal and delivery economics. Governments, particularly in the European Union, are examining closely the roles of the two systems and how best to regulate them. This volume brings together 20 essays originally presented at the 12th Conference on Postal and Delivery Economics held in Cork, Ireland in June 2004. Contributors include researchers, practitioners, and senior managers from throughout the world.
