The Future of Recreation on Public Lands
Author: Lynne M. Westphal
Publisher:
Published: 2022
Total Pages: 0
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis report provides a look at changes that could come to pass and impact recreation on public lands over the next 30 years. The data were over 700 horizon scan hits from our Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project. Horizon scan hits are a useful early warning system. Horizon scan hits may be directly related to outdoor recreation (e.g., the decline of snow fall) or they may be indirectly related (e.g., the development of lab-grown meat). Because weak signals of change are as important as strong signals, a single scan hit is worthy of consideration, even if it stands alone. These horizon scan hits point to uncertainty and volatility in recreation activities on public lands. Some scan hits point to significant decline in traditional activities, while other scan hits point to increases. New activities are emerging, and there are many crosswinds in domains outside recreation that will impact delivery of recreation on public lands. Climate change is already implicated in recreation changes, from reduced snow fall, to human and animal migration, to reduced biodiversity. Other potential changes on the horizon include changing attitudes toward nature, a growing role for time in forests as a component of healthcare, electrification of many modes of travel, rising potential for augmented reality (AR) in outdoor recreation, the rise in passenger drones changing how people get to recreation sites, the potential for robots to assist with recreation management, and more. Therefore, there are many plausible futures for recreation on public lands. This makes planning more complicated, and the use of additional strategic foresight methods may help decision-makers think about the range of possible futures, and to plan for a preferrable future for outdoor recreation.
