The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016
The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016

Author: Philip Barrett

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-09-11

Total Pages: 79

ISBN-13: 1484376692

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I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share. Headline estimates are very large, implying total revenue losses since 2005 of $3bn, and future revenue gains from peace of about 6 percent of GDP per year. Reduced collection efficiency, rather than lower economic activity, appears to be the key channel. OLS estimates understate the causal effect by a factor of four. Comparing to estimates from Powell’s (2017) generalized synthetic control method suggests that this bias results from omitted variables and measurement error in equal share. The findings underscore the considerable economic loss due to conflict, and the importance of careful identification in measuring this loss.

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2018, Middle East and Central Asia

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-10-24

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13: 1484375386

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As in other regions in the world, countries in MENAP and CCA regions are exposed to tightening in global financing conditions and ongoing global trade tensions. The former has already begun to impact several emerging market economies in MENAP and could have more severe implications should financial market sentiment suddenly deteriorate. Escalating global trade tensions will have a limited direct and immediate impact on these regions but could impart significant strains over time through negative effects on trading partners and through market confidence effects.

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-06-07

Total Pages: 83

ISBN-13: 1498318827

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This paper discusses Afghanistan’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. The paper highlights that in the face of many headwinds, Afghanistan’s government continues to demonstrate strong ownership of the program supported by the ECF arrangement. The economic outlook is clouded by numerous uncertainties; however, ongoing peace negotiations offer hope for a much-needed improvement in the security situation. The security situation remains strained, but the US-Taliban peace negotiations have improved prospects for a political settlement. External financing should continue to rely on grants and concessional funding. Any scaling up of externally financed public investment should be gradual and preceded by an assessment of macro-fiscal implications and strengthened debt management. Continued reforms remain key to achieving higher and more inclusive growth. Reforms in support of fiscal sustainability, institution building, anti-corruption efforts, and financial stability should continue.

The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Xiangming Fang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2020-10-30

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 9781513559667

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Sub-Saharan Africa has been marred by conflicts during the past several decades. While the intensity of conflicts in recent years is lower than that observed in the 1990s, the region remains prone to conflicts, with around 30 percent of the countries affected in 2019. In addition to immeasurable human suffering, conflicts impose large economic costs. On average, annual growth in countries in intense conflicts is about 2.5 percentage points lower, and the cumulative impact on per capita GDP increases over time. Furthermore, conflicts pose significant strains on countries’ public finances, lowering revenue, raising military spending, and shifting resources away from development and social spending.

The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa

Author: Mr.Bjoern Rother

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-16

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 1475535783

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In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

Pathways for Peace
Pathways for Peace

Author: United Nations;World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2018-04-13

Total Pages: 415

ISBN-13: 1464811865

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Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2016
Global Economic Prospects, January 2016

Author: WorldBank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2016-01-21

Total Pages: 286

ISBN-13: 1464806764

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The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

Global Trends 2040
Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Global Waves of Debt
Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

World Economic Outlook, April 2016
World Economic Outlook, April 2016

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-12

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 1498398588

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Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.