Commodity Price Dynamics
Commodity Price Dynamics

Author: Craig Pirrong

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2011-10-31

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 1139501976

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Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy
Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Author: Matthias Kalkuhl

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-04-12

Total Pages: 620

ISBN-13: 3319282018

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This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation
Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1988-10-03

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1451953089

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Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.

The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices
The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices

Author: Robert S. Pindyck

Publisher:

Published: 1988

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13:

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This paper tests and confirms the existence of a puzzling phenomenon - the prices of largely unrelated raw commodities have a persistent tendency to move together. We show that this comovement of prices is well in excess of anything that can be explained by the common effects of past, current, or expected future values of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, interest rates, and exchange rates. These results are a rejection of the standard competitive model of commodity price formation with storage.

Storage and Commodity Markets
Storage and Commodity Markets

Author: Jeffrey C. Williams

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1991-03-29

Total Pages: 522

ISBN-13: 0521326168

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This book deals with the capability to store surplus commodities and the impact of stockpiles on prices and production.

Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation

Author: Samya Beidas-Strom

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-12-12

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1498333486

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How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Co-movement of major commodity price returns: A time-series assessment
Co-movement of major commodity price returns: A time-series assessment

Author: de Nicola, Francesca

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2014-06-13

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural, and food commodities using monthly data between 1970 and 2013. The authors study the extent and the time evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations using a uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure.

Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics

Author: Gary Koop

Publisher: Now Publishers Inc

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 104

ISBN-13: 160198362X

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Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.