The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Activity in Turkey
The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Activity in Turkey

Author: Magda Kandil

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output, the price level, and the real value of components of aggregate demand in Turkey. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods and producers' forecasts of relative competitiveness. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting the growth of real output and the demand for investment and exports, while raising price inflation. Unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects that highlight the importance of unanticipated depreciation in shrinking output growth and the growth of private consumption and investment, despite an increase in export growth.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey
Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

Author: Mr.Plamen K Iossifov

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-06-28

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1498322824

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There is an ongoing debate in the literature on whether global trade flows have become disconnected from the large real effective exchange rate movements in the wake of the global financial crisis. The question has important policy implications for the role of exchange rates in supporting growth and restoring external balance. In this paper, we use Turkey---a large and open emerging market economy that has experienced sizable swings of the real effective exchange rate---as a case study to test competing hypotheses. Our results lend support to the finding in existing cross-country studies that the real effective exchange rate remains an important determinant of trade flows. But, its effect is not symmetric in secular periods of appreciation and depreciation and is, oftentimes, dwarfed by the impact on trade flows of the income growth differential between trade partners.

Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey
Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey

Author: Faruk Selcuk

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2018-04-27

Total Pages: 190

ISBN-13: 135173928X

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This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.

Turkish Exchange Rate Crisis
Turkish Exchange Rate Crisis

Author: Nancy Aziz Al Ammar

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 126

ISBN-13:

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This project presents an overview of the Turkish economy during times of financial crises. It first presents a summary of the different time periods that have gone through financial crises, mainly exchange rate devaluations, and the reform effo rts that were undertaken by the government, with the help of the IMF, to overcome these predicaments. It then discusses the effect of exchange rate volatility on different aspects of the Turkish economy. In particular, it tackles the issues of inflation targeting, the banking sector and what must be done for EU negotiations, and the effect of exch ange rate volatility on the trade flows between Turkey and its major trading partners . Finally, this project examines briefly the exchange rate policy in Lebanon and ends with some concluding remarks on the future prospects of the Turkish economy.

The Political Economy of Turkey
The Political Economy of Turkey

Author: Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA John F. Kennedy School of Government

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1990-06-18

Total Pages: 289

ISBN-13: 1349112747

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Turkey stands at a crossroad after a decade of adjustment to its severe debt crisis in the late 1970s. This volume brings together a group of contributors who discuss the consequences of this transition and the likely pains for the future.

Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate
Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate

Author: E. Murat Ucer

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-01-01

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1451841590

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This paper examines the links between fiscal policy, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate in Turkey since the late 1980s. After an overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Turkey, a vector autoregression model is estimated linking government spending, interest rate differentials, capital inflows, and the temporary component of the real exchange rate. Positive shocks to government spending and capital inflows lead to an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate, whereas positive shocks to the uncovered interest rate differential lead to a capital inflow and an appreciation of the temporary component of the real exchange rate. The findings highlight the role of fiscal adjustment in restoring macroeconomic stability.

The Turkish Economy in Crisis
The Turkish Economy in Crisis

Author: Ziya Öniş

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 9780714683973

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A major objective of the book is to assess the prospects for the future and the authors try to tackle the challenging of whether the twin crises constitute a radical turning point in the Turkish experiment with neo-liberal reforms question from a variety of different perspectives.

The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis
The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis

Author: Mr.Harun Alp

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-06-01

Total Pages: 75

ISBN-13: 1455270482

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Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Counterfactual experiments based on an estimated structural model provide quantitative evidence which suggests that the recession would have been substantially more severe. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis.

Turkish Economy At The Crossroads: Facing The Challenges Ahead
Turkish Economy At The Crossroads: Facing The Challenges Ahead

Author: Asaf Savas Akat

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2020-10-05

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 9811214905

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Turkish Economy at the Crossroads: Facing the Challenges Ahead is an exciting new volume of articles from prominent experts, edited by two distinguished economists. Despite its international stature and its diversified open-market economy, the global literature on Turkey is dispersed and sparse. The book aims to remedy this shortcoming by providing readers interested in Turkey with a balanced and up-to-date overview of the economy.Topics discussed include trends in long-term political economy, post-2001 macroeconomic policies, tradable and non-tradable sectors and their impact on income distribution, capital flows and financial imbalances, success and problems of structural transformation at the micro level, characteristics of the labor markets with special emphasis on female employment, Turkey's long lasting but difficult relations with the European Union and possible scenarios for the near future. This unified approach permits to highlight and tackle effectively the challenges and risks Turkey faces in the final and critical stage of transition to a modern developed society.

Turkish Lira - A Fiat Currency that Resembles the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies
Turkish Lira - A Fiat Currency that Resembles the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies

Author: John Taskinsoy

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13:

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The dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency was inaugurated at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference where the agreement was signed by the 44 wartime allies, but the dollar's hegemony was solidified in 1971 when US President Nixon cut the dollar's link to gold. True, the fixed exchange rate regime reminiscence of the Bretton Woods is no longer with us; and also true that the two watchdog institutions created in 1944 are still around permitting and encouraging but almost compelling world inflation. We are now faced with a dilemma that begs for a solution; the Bretton Woods system and its successor the dollar regime after 1971 created a system of economic slavery in which all countries are serving to keep the United States of America happy. The inevitable birth of Bitcoin is the upshot of this dilemma and the most recent devaluation of the Turkish lira is an unescapable consequence that unmistakably demonstrated exactly what happens when the U.S. demands are not satisfied. The U.S. dollar continues to rule both international trade and foreign exchange markets; today, circa 90% of daily forex trading volume is dollar denominated plus half of the world's 185 currencies are in a tight trading range to the dollar. Since the late 1990s, the United States' growing abuse of sanction power via the dollar tool has reemerged the interest in search for a viable alternative to the U.S. dollar.