The Economic Impact of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from a New Cross-Country Database
The Economic Impact of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from a New Cross-Country Database

Author: Mr. Gee Hee Hong

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-09-27

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13:

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Fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU)—ambiguity in government spending and tax plans, as well as in public debt valuation—is widely regarded as a source of economic and financial disruptions. However, assessing its impact has so far been limited to a few large economies. In this paper, we construct a novel database of news-based fiscal policy uncertainty for 189 countries. Importantly, we track fiscal uncertainty events that generate global attention that we refer to as the “global fiscal policy uncertainty." This uncertainty has contractionary effects, reducing industrial production in both advanced and emerging market economies, with impacts greater than country-specific fiscal policy uncertainty. Additionally, global fiscal policy uncertainty raises sovereign borrowing costs and generates synchronous movements in the global financial variables, even after accounting for US monetary policy shocks.

Promoting Fiscal Discipline
Promoting Fiscal Discipline

Author: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2007-10-18

Total Pages: 144

ISBN-13: 158906609X

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Fiscal discipline is essential to improve and sustain economic performance, maintain macroeconomic stability, and reduce vulnerabilities. Discipline is especially important if countries, industrial as well as developing, are to successfully meet the challenges, and reap the benefits, of economic and financial globalization. Lack of fiscal discipline generally stems from the injudicious use of policy discretion. The benefits of discretion are seen in terms of the ability of policymakers to respond to unexpected shocks and in allowing elected political representatives to fulfill their mandates. But discretion can be misused, resulting in persistent deficits and procyclical policies, rising debt levels, and, over time, a loss in policy credibility. The authors first explore the role of discretion in fiscal policy, and the extent, consequences, and causes of procyclicality, particularly in good times. They then examine how a variety of institutional approaches—fiscal rules, fiscal responsibility laws, and fiscal agencies—can help improve fiscal discipline. While each of these approaches can play a useful role, the authors suggest that a strategy combining them is likely to be particularly beneficial. Although such a strategy requires political commitment and effective fiscal management, at the same time, the strategy itself can bolster political commitment by highlighting the restraints on government and raising the costs of failing to respect them.

Investment under Uncertainty
Investment under Uncertainty

Author: Robert K. Dixit

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2012-07-14

Total Pages: 484

ISBN-13: 1400830176

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How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-04-20

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 1498344658

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This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment

Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-05-04

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1484361555

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This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.

Unequal We Stand
Unequal We Stand

Author: Jonathan Heathcote

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2010-10

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1437934919

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The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.

Alternative Economic Indicators
Alternative Economic Indicators

Author: C. James Hueng

Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute

Published: 2020-09-08

Total Pages: 133

ISBN-13: 0880996765

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Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.

Is Fiscal Policy the Answer?
Is Fiscal Policy the Answer?

Author: Blanca Moreno-Dodson

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2012-11-15

Total Pages: 285

ISBN-13: 0821396315

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The effects of fiscal policy measures, both taxes and public spending, adopted by developing countries in response to the 2009 global crisis are still uncertain. This book discusses them using an analytical framework that allows for distilling possible implications on growth and social welfare.

Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty

Author: Ezgi O. Ozturk

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-10-30

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1484326113

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Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-08-03

Total Pages: 339

ISBN-13: 1464816662

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The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.